-Henry Cejudo: Cejudo has developed two main paths to beating opponents. Using his plus plus wrestling to take the opponent down, grind and get a decision win. The other is to use his plus knockout power. History has shown that when Cejudo thinks he can be out struck, like in fights with Sergio Pettis and his 2nd fight with Demetrius Johnson, Cejudo will turn to the wrestling. I think that’s what he does here. Especially since the pathway to beating Moraes is to take him down. Moraes lost his UFC debut, getting out grappled by Raphael Assuncao. But the adjustment Moraes made was to blitz opponents that could take him down. Aljamain Sterling. Jimmie Rivera. 2nd fight with Assuncao. All 1st round knockouts. I just think Cejudo is going to be able to weather the 1st round storm. Get to his wrestling. I mean Cejudo was able to take Johnson down at will, so I’m sure he’s able to take Moraes down. And I think Cejudo is going to do enough on top to pick up the decision win.
-Valentina Shevchenko: This is the biggest title fight mismatch since Demetrius Johnson vs Wilson Reis. Jessica Eye is only getting this title fight because the 125 lb division is still developing and Eye has won 3 in a row. Although, I do have to give her credit in edging out Katlyn Chookagian. That’s a very legit win. But Shevchenko is better everywhere. And I do think Shevchenko will go the path of least resistance which is taking Eye down and submitting her in the 1st round.
-Tony Ferguson: I know that Donald Cerrone is on a roll right now. Coming off a big win out striking Al Iaquinta. But it’s still hard for me to forget that Cerrone went 2-4 between 2017-2018. I’m not sold on Mike Perry and Alex Hernandez being contenders or anything like that, but I have to admit, the Iaquinta win was a legit win over a contender at 155 lbs. The problem I see for Cerrone in this fight is that I can’t see him having an advantage anywhere. Ferguson has plus plus cardio. His striking is super unorthodox. I can’t see Cerrone having an advantage on the stand up. And because of Ferguson’s wrestling, I don’t see Cerrone being able to get Ferguson on the ground either. Ferguson has a habit of playing rope a dope the first round and then turns it on. I think that’s what he does here. Loses the first round, then puts crazy pressure on Cerrone in the 2nd round and knocks him out.
-Petr Yan: Yan really made me a believer in his last fight, a dominant win over upper tier gate keeper, John Dodson. Only the best beat Dodson. Yan is now 4-0 in the UFC. 26 years old. Plus striking. Plus wrestling. This fight with Jimmie Rivera is interesting because we’re going to see if Rivera has fixed the holes in his striking. Rivera has relied on his plus wrestling in a lot of fights, but became a contender when he developed his striking and figured out how to tap into his raw power. Rivera’s power is plus, but I’d grade his striking technique as just above average. Rivera is 6-2 in the UFC. Was close to a title shot but got knocked out by Marlon Moraes. Bounced back out striking John Dodson. But getting out struck and losing a decision to Aljamain Sterling. I’m picking Yan because not only do I think he has the better boxing to out point Rivera, but he also has the confidence right now. Yan by decision.
-Tai Tuivasa: This should be a good test for Tuivasa as he’s shown that although he can knock guys out, he has a lot of work to do on the ground. Tuivasa is just 26 years old. Really young for a heavyweight. 3-1 in the UFC. Only lost to Junior dos Santos. Blagoy Ivanov is a good test in how well rounded Ivanov is. 32 years old. He lost to dos Santos too but is coming off a win over Ben Rothwell. Question in this fight is going to be if Ivanov can keep Tuivasa in the clinch, push him against the fence, maybe take him down. It’s possible. But Tuivasa has the best tool in the fight, which is his plus power. I think Ivanov has the ability to win a 3 round fight, but I’m picking Tuivasa because I think he’s going to catch Ivanov at some point in the 1st round with a KO.
-Tatiana Suarez: I’ve been saying for a couple years now that Suarez is the future champion at 115 lbs and my mind hasn’t changed. A lot of people are saying she’s a female version of Khabib Nurmagomedov, but the main difference is that he jiu jitsu and submissions are way better. Khabib just sticks to the ground and pound. Yes, Nina Ansaroff has improved a lot. She’s 4-2 in the UFC. 33 years old. She really made a jump when she developed her take down defense enough to a plus grade. Not even top grappler Claudia Gadelha was able to take Ansaroff down. But Suarez is elite. Plus plus wrestling. Plus submissions. Ansaroff won’t be able to stuff Suarez’s take downs and that will pretty much be the fight. Suarez by 1st round submission.
-Pedro Munhoz: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Munhoz came into the UFC as the #1 prospect at 135 lbs at the time. He didn’t get off to a great start. Lost 2 of his first 3 UFC fights. Granted to contenders Raphael Assuncao and Jimmie Rivera. So the UFC decided to slow things down with Munhoz and give him some easier match ups so he could develop and that’s what he’s done. Munhoz has plus grappling and a plus ground game. But it’s Munhoz’s improvement in striking that will likely lead to him getting a title shot. Munhoz is now 8-3 in the UFC. In his prime at 32 years old. And to show how dramatic his striking has improved, Munhoz has 4 career knockouts. 2 of the 4 came in his last 2 fights. First round knockouts over Bryan Caraway and then former champion Cody Garbrandt. Opponent Aljamain Sterling is a very good fighter. He’s got plus wrestling. Plus submissions. I’d grade his striking to be above average now. But the power difference between Munhoz and Sterling will be the difference. Sterling is more about volume. And it’s even possible he lands more than Munhoz, but Munhoz will land some and I think he has the power to knock Sterling out in the 2nd round.
-Alexa Grasso: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Karolina Kowalkiewicz is heading towards the end of her career. Not because she’s now ineffective but because she wants to be a mom and is 33 years old. And any fighter, male or female, that’s looking towards retirement, doesn’t tend to do well. Kowalkiewicz has been a solid contender. 5-4 in the UFC that has more to do with who she’s fought. Her skills are pretty similar to her opponent Grasso. Plus striking, but more of the volume, quantity variety. Grasso is 25 years old. 2-2 UFC record. But I think her striking is going to take a step forward and that Kowalkiewicz’s striking is going to take a step back. Because of that, I’m picking Grasso to get the decision win.
-Calvin Kattar: Ricardo Lamas can still be a pretty good mid tier gate keeper in the UFC despite being 37 years old. The fact that he was able to finish Darren Elkins last time out was really impressive. But Lamas has slowed a little and shown that he can be out struck by young up and comers like Josh Emmett and Mirsad Bektic. I think Kattar is another one of those guys. Kattar is 31 years old. 3-1 in the UFC. And his biggest win was a knockout over Shane Burgos. Kattar has near plus wrestling and will use it to keep the fight standing up. Kattar’s striking is definitely plus and if he can start tapping into his raw power more, he should be heading towards a title shot in the next couple years. I like Kattar’s striking more and think he knocks Lamas out in the 2nd round.
-Yan Xiaonan: Angela Hill is a decent lower tier gate keeper. 3-4 UFC record. 34 years old. Has above average wrestling. Average striking. I’m not really sure what to make of Xiaonan yet. She’s started her UFC career 3-0. But the quality of competition she beat wasn’t that great. 2 fighters the UFC released and another fighter with a 1-2 UFC record. Xiaonan is 29 years old and headed to her prime. She’s got above average striking with above average take down defense. And Xiaonan’s take down defense will be the key in the fight. Xiaonan has a UFC win over Viviane Pereira who has above average wrestling. And if Pereira wasn’t able to take Xiaonan down, I don’t think Hill will either. Xiaonan has the better stand up and she’ll win via decision.
-Bevon Lewis: Darren Stewart has gotten better. He’s 28 years old, so that shouldn’t be much of a surprise. Stewart has average striking, above average power and in his last fight showed he’s improved his grappling to close to average. 2-4 UFC record. But Lewis has better striking technique and a better chance at getting to his knockout power. Lewis has a 6-1 pro record. 28 years old. 1-1 in the UFC. Lost to vet Uriah Hall. I see Lewis bouncing back and out pointing Stewart for a decision win.
-Grigory Popov: Eddie Wineland was once a title contender at 135 lbs, but he’s heading towards the end of his career. 34 years old. His UFC record is now 5-7. He’s lost 2 in a row. He takes on a decent prospect in Popov who has plus wrestling, above average striking and an average ground game. He’s pretty well rounded. It’s possible Popov takes Wineland to the ground, but even if he can’t I see Popov being faster and landing harder shots. Popov by decision.
-Joanne Calderwood: Calderwood has become a brand new fighter at 125 lbs. Gone is the tentative fighter that lacks confidence when she was at 115 lbs. She’s now 2-0 at flyweight pulling off upsets against Kalindra Faria and Ariane Lipski. Calderwood now takes on Katlyn Chookagian who’s got a 4-2 UFC record. Has plus striking, but her power being only average limits her upside. I could be wrong, but from what I’ve seen in Calderwood’s two 125 lb fights is that she’s going to have a power advantage and at some point in the 3 round fight will catch Chookagian and knock her out. I’ll call 2nd round KO.