-Justin Gaethje: This is the worst style matchup for Donald Cerrone. Cerrone being 36 years old. 17-5 in the UFC at 155 lbs. Lately, he’s showed he can out strike someone like Al Iaquinta but got out struck by Tony Ferguson. That put’s Cerrone’s striking at the plus level. And his grappling is still above average. Gaethje is 30 years of age. 3-2 UFC record. 20-2 pro record. Only 2 losses were to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier. And Gaethje’s most impressive win was his last won, knocking Edson Barboza out in the 1st round. Plus plus striking. Above average wrestling. So the problem for Cerrone in this fight is on the feet, Gaethje is better. And Gaethje’s wrestling will make sure that this fight plays out on the feet. To me, if Gaethje is able to knock out a plus plus striker in Barboza, he should be able to do the same to Cerrone. 1st round knockout.
-Nikita Krylov: Interesting fight that will truly show how much progress Krylov has made in his development. 27 years old. 6-3 in the UFC at 205 lbs. Got submitted in his first light heavyweight fight to Ovince St. Preux. Also got submitted by Misha Cirkunov and Jan Blachowicz. Krylov’s last win, submitting St. Preux in a rematch, is the most impressive of his career. The other UFC wins have been against average competition. Well rounded with above average striking and above average grappling. Glover Teixeira is the premier upper tier gate keeper at 205 lbs. 12-5 in the UFC. 39 years old. He only loses to the top 5 of the division. His skills have regressed a bit but I still have him at above average striking and average grappling. Krylov’s grappling looked way better in his fight against OSP. I think that’s where he has the biggest advantage here. If they strike, it’ll be close. But I think Krylov gets Teixeira down. Lands enough strikes on the ground. And has the better cardio. Krylov will pick up the first decision win of his career.
-Todd Duffee: Who knows what Duffee will look like here. It’ll be his first fight in over 4 years. But I do know Jeff Hughes pretty well. 31 years old. 10-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC. Average wrestling. Duffee is now 33 years old which isn’t too old for a heavyweight. 3-2 UFC record. Lost to Mike Russow back in 2010, but I remember watching that fight and Duffee should’ve won but he just gassed out trying to finish Russow. Other loss was to Frank Mir. He’s got plus striking. All 9 wins have come from knockouts. This fight will be all about whether Hughes can take Duffee down with the wrestling. But based on Duffee being able to stuff take downs in the UFC in past fights, I think he’ll keep the fight on the feet long enough to knock Hughes out in the 1st round.
-Michel Pereira: On paper, Pereira might seem like a journeyman fighter with a pro record of 22-9. 25 years old though. And 7 of his 9 losses happened when he was 23 years and younger. Knocked out Danny Roberts in his UFC debut. His striking is at least above average. Could be plus but I haven’t seen enough of him against quality guys. And he also has average grappling. Sergey Khandozhko is 27 years old. 26-5 pro record. Beat a 6-0 striker by decision in his UFC debut. Well rounded with average striking and average grappling. But he’s lost 4 of his last 6 fights. And all 4 losses came against below average prospects. Pereira’s striking is the best tool in the fight. I expect him to blitz Khandozhko, just like he did Roberts. And we’ll have another 1st round Pereira knockout.
-Antonio Carlos Jr: This is a pretty lopsided fight in my opinion. Carlos Jr. is a rising contender. 29 years old. 7-3 UFC record. Has wins over Marvin Vettori and Tim Boetsch. Plus grappling, with the potential of the tool reaching plus plus. Uriah Hall is 35 years old. 7-7 in the UFC. Plus striking. Hall has never fought a grappler the caliber of Carlos Jr. I see Carlos Jr getting an easy take down and a quick submission win in the 1st round.
-Jimmy Crute: It’s only been 3 fights in the UFC for Crute, but he’s looking like a future title contender. And I might be putting myself out there a bit, but in a couple years, Crute has a legit chance of becoming champion and beating Jon Jones. Crute is 3-0 in the UFC. Has a submission win over ace grappler Paul Craig and knocked out an extremely durable gate keeper in Sam Alvery. And Crute is only 23 years old! This is a special prospect. Plus striking. Plus grappling. I haven’t seen any weaknesses or flaws in his game yet. And Misha Cirkunov is a decent mid tier gate keeper. 5-3 UFC record. 32 years old. Has submission wins over Nikita Krylov and Ion Cutelaba. Plus grappling. But Cirkunov has been knocked out in the 1st round in 3 of his last 4 fights. Same thing will happen with Crute. He has the grappling to keep the fight on the feet and will knockout Cirkunov in the 1st.
-Marcin Tybura: This fight might seem like striker vs striker, but Tybura is more well rounded than most people realize. 33 years old. 4-4 in the UFC. Lost his debut getting caught in Tim Johnson’s clinch. Then lost to 3 other top guys. His biggest 2 wins are decision wins over Stefan Struve and Andrei Arlovski. I grade Tybura as having plus striking and average grappling. Augusto Sakai is 28 years old. Young for a heavyweight. 13-1 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 prospect. Knocked out Chase Sherman. Barely beat Andrei Arlovski by split decision. Has above average striking. Very likely Tybura could out strike Sakai if he wanted to, but I actually think Tybura sees Sakai’s lack of wrestling and ground game, takes him down and submits him in the 2nd round.
-Miles Johns: Cole Smith is 30 years old. 7-0 pro record. Beat Mitch Gagnon by decision in his UFC debut. Also has a submission win over a 4-1 grappler. Based off of that, I have Smith graded with average grappling. Johns though is a bad matchup. 25 years old. 8-0 pro record. Dominated a 7-1 grappler in his UFC debut. Has above average wrestling. Easy fight to pick. Johns will be able to take Smith down and do enough ground and pound to win by clear decision.
-Marvin Vettori: This is a really hard fight to pick and I think could go either way.Andrew Sanchez is 31 years old. 11-4 pro record. 4-2 UFC record. He should be 5-1 though. He made a bad strategic mistake in gassing out trying to finish Ryan Janes and went on to get knocked out on an empty gas tank. Also got knocked out by Anthony Smith. His wins over Khalil Rountree and Markus Perez are impressive though. Plus striking paired with average power. And above average wrestling. Vettori meanwhile is 25 years old. 3-2-1 UFC record. He got out grappled by Antonio Carlos Jr when he was 22 years old. No shame there. Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw. But I think he really broke out in his fight with Israel Adesanya. And besides Kelvin Gastelum, surprisingly, Vettori has come closest to beating Adesanya. Then Vettori was at his career best last time out beating a quality mid tier gate keeper in Cezar Ferreira. I grade him as having above average grappling and now average striking. So on paper, Sanchez should win this fight. But I’m picking Vettori on the projection that his grappling and striking continue to improve. Most likely, I think Vettori is able to take Sanchez down and does that often enough to win a close split decision.
-Brad Katona: Seems to me this matchup was made with the intent of being a soft landing for Katona to bounce back in Canada. Katona is 27 years old. 8-1 pro record. 4-1 in the UFC so far. Got out wrestled by Merab Dvalishvili in his last fight. Had no answers for a fighter that had better wrestling than him. But Katona does have a big submission win over Bryce Mitchell. I grade Katona as having above average wrestling and average submissions. Hunter Azure is also 27 years old. 7-0 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC, but his win was over a 3-0 prospect. All other wins over cans. Azure has average striking. Should be an easy win for Katona. Take down to submission. 1st round.
-Jordan Griffin: Even though Chas Skelly has been a solid mid tier gate keeper with a 6-4 record and Griffin is a newcomer that’s 1-1 in the UFC so far, I see both of their careers headed in opposite directions. Skelly is 34 years old. And I expected him to beat Bobby Moffett, but he didn’t look like the Skelly I’m used to seeing. He’s now lost 2 fights in a row and based on his last fight, I think his plus wrestling and submissions have regressed to being just above average. Griffin is 29 years old. He’s got a couple quality wins. The biggest was a submission win over a well rounded 11-1 prospect. His loss in the UFC was against Dan Ige. No shame in that. I grade Griffin as having above average grappling and average striking. I see Griffin being able to make this a stand up fight, where he’s got a striking advantage and I’m picking him to win by decision.
-Louis Smolka: Smolka has a home in the UFC as a successful mid tier gate keeper. He’s 28 years old. 6-6 in the UFC, but I think has more of an upward trajectory. He’s got quality wins over Patrick Holohan, Ben Nguyen, and Mudaerji Su. His losses all came against quality guys. Above average striking and above average wrestling. His opponent Ryan MacDonald is 26 years old. 10-1 pro record. All wins over cans. Lost his UFC debut to Chris Guitierrez. MacDonald has average striking. Should be an easy win for Smolka. I see Smolka being able to take MacDonald down and should submit him as early as the 1st round.
-Austin Hubbard: Kyle Prepolec is here because he took a fight against Nordine Taleb on 7 days notice. So this fight is his reward for taking the short notice fight. But Prepolec is basically a journeyman. 30 years old. 12-6 pro record. His best tool is his striking but it’s below average. Hubbard is 27 years old. 10-3 pro record. Has a decision win over a 9-1 striker and a knockout over a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Those are 2 UFC caliber type wins. Lost his UFC debut to Davi Ramos, but it’s impressive that Ramos couldn’t submit Hubbard. I grade Hubbard as having average striking and average wrestling. I think Hubbard will mix and match his striking and take downs to cruise to a decision win.