Masvidal vs Diaz, Gastelum vs Till, Anderson vs Walker Fight Picks

-Jorge Masvidal: Nate Diaz has had a successful UFC career. At 155 lbs in the UFC, he’s gone 14-6. Then at 170 lbs, he’s got a 4-3 UFC record. 34 years old now. And 2 of the losses at 170 lbs came against contenders back in 2011. He wouldn’t take a fight at 170 lbs again until the first Conor McGregor fight in 2016. At this point in Diaz’s career 170 lbs is probably the better fit due to not having to put his body through tough weight cuts. To be blunt though, I’m still not convinced Diaz is an elite fighter at 170 lbs. He beat McGregor once and lost a close rematch, but McGregor probably isn’t as good at 170 lbs. And yes, Anthony Pettis had a lot of momentum knocking out Stephen Thompson, but the fact remains that Pettis has a big flaw in lack of take down defense and the take downs are what helped Diaz beat Pettis. Wrestling and being taken down is also Diaz’s main flaw and how he’s lost a majority of his fights. I’d grade Diaz as having plus grappling. And above average striking paired with average power. Masvidal is also 34 years old. 11-6 UFC record. Interesting thing with him though is 4 of his 6 losses were of the split decision variety. And the loss to Stephen Thompson was a really close loss as well. After bouncing back and forth between 155 lbs and 170 lbs for most of his career, Masvidal’s career started to turn a corner in 2016 where he decided to stay at 170 lbs. He knocked out Jake Ellenberger and then knocked out Donald Cerrone who was on the cusp of a 170 lb title shot. Lost 2 close fights then the knockouts over Darren Till and Ben Askren. Masvidal has plus striking and above average wrestling. Diaz’s main chance of winning this fight will be to take advantage of the 5 rounds and that his cardio is better than Masvidal in the 2nd half of the fight. Another interesting note is that Diaz has only been knocked once in his career. Diaz would have his best chance on the ground but I think Masvidal will be able to keep the fight on the feet. But ultimately, I think Masvidal’s striking is on another level right now and I see him knocking Diaz out in the 2nd round.

-Kelvin Gastelum: I feel sad for Darren Till that he took this match up with Gastelum. Till is still only 26 years old. 17-2-1 pro record. 5-2-1 UFC record. He got pushed too fast. He fought Nicolas Dalby to a draw because of Dalby’s wrestling. He couldn’t knock out Jessin Ayari or Bojan Velickovic. He did have that 1 spectacular knockout over Donald Cerrone, who’s way better at 155 lbs. After that, he won a close split decision over Stephan Thompson, and in my opinion I think Thompson won that fight. Then he was finished pretty easily by Tyron Woodley and Jorge Masvidal. That all happened at 170 lbs and now he’s moving up to 185 lbs. I rate Till as having near plus striking paired with average power. Gastelum’s career has been a bit inconsistent. 27 years old. 14-4 UFC record. In some fights he’d look better than others. Probably due to those tough 170 lb weight cuts. He started to show more consistency after he moved up to 185 lbs picking up wins over Johny Hendricks, Michael Bisping and Jacare Souza. And coming pretty close to knocking out Chris Weidman. But it wasn’t until his last fight with Israel Adesanya when he put it all together in spectacular fashion, coming inches away from knocking current champ Adesanya out. I think the step forward has a lot to do with Gastelum unlocking his striking power. Gastelum has plus striking, above average wrestling and an above average submission game. Now, it’s possible that Till looks like a completely different fighter at 185 lbs, but I really don’t see how he comes back from 2 losses in a row against Gastelum who’s confidence has to be on an all time high. I think Gastelum will be content striking with Till on the feet and will knock Till out in the 2nd round.

-Johnny Walker: This is an interesting fight in the sense that Walker doesn’t have much cage time. 27 years old. 17-3 pro record. 4-0 in the UFC. But 2 of the wins were knockouts in less than 1 minute. Then another knockout happened in less than 2 minutes. The thing we do know is that 2 of the 4 guys Walker knocked out are high level grapplers in Justin Ledet and Misha Cirkunov. And only 1 of the 3 losses he has is a submission loss, the other 2, Walker got knocked out. Walker’s striking is at least plus with the ceiling for more. Corey Anderson is 30 years old. 12-4 UFC record. How does Anderson lose? 3 of his 4 losses come from him being knocked out. Uh oh. And the guys Anderson has lost to aren’t exactly elite guys. Gian Villante 4 years ago. Shogun 3 years ago. Anderson is Jimi Manuwa’s last career win 2 years ago. And Ovince St. Preux knocked him out 2 years ago. However, Anderson has looked at his best his last 2 fights beating legit contenders in Glover Texeira and Ilir Latifi. Based on using his wrestling to win those last 2 fights, I’d grade Anderson’s wrestling and cardio as plus. So, can Walker be taken down? Possibly. How good will Walker’s cardio be in the 3rd round? Who knows. But the thing I do know is that on at least 3 different occasions, this fight will be on the feet and I think those are enough chances for Walker to catch Anderson’s chin and knock him out. I’ll call 1st round.

-Vicente Luque: I’d call this a changing of the guard fight but the reality is that Stephen Thompson has won only 1 fight in his last 5. Thompson is now 36 years old. 9-4-1 UFC record. His draw and loss to Tyron Woodley were razor close and could’ve gone either way. And I actually thought he beat Darren Till, but lost a close decision. But then in his last fight Anthony Pettis knocked him out. Thompson has plus striking with above average power. He also has above average wrestling he uses to keep the fight standing up. Luque is 27 years old. 10-2 in the UFC. He got out wrestled by Michael Graves in his UFC debut. The only other loss was to Leon Edwards. His biggest wins have been over Belal Muhammed, Niko Price, and Mike Perry. Luque has plus striking and above average grappling. Ultimately, I think Thompson’s near the end of his career. He’s been having knee problems for awhile. He just got knocked out for the first time in his career by a guy who normally fights in a smaller weight class. I think Thompson will out strike Luque for a little bit but Luque is eventually going to land the power shot and knocks Thompson out in the 1st round.

-Derrick Lewis: This is a nice soft bounce back matchup for Lewis who’s been fighting the likes of Junior dos Santos, Francis Ngannou, Alex Volkov, etc, 34 years old. 12-5 UFC record. In the last 4 years, he’s only been losing to fighters that are ranked in the top #5. Striking technique is above average but power is plus plus. Like he can get out struck, but he wins a lot of fights from landing the big power shots that end the fight. Blagoy Ivanov is 33 years old. 18-2 pro record. 2-1 in the UFC so far. Lost his debut to Junior dos Santos but has bounced back with wins over Ben Rothwell and Tai Tuivasa. Ivanov has plus striking paired with average power. Also has average wrestling and average submissions. This should be the typical Lewis fight where he gets out struck at first, but especially with Ivanov’s lack of power, I think Lewis lands the knockout blow by the 2nd round.

-Jair Rozenstruik: Andrei Arlovski is in his 2nd tour of the UFC and he’s been a successful lower tier gate keeper. 7-8 UFC record in his 2nd stint. 40 years old now. He lost 5 in a row and looked done, but since then he’s gone 3-3. He hasn’t had a knockout win since 2015. His striking had regressed to now being just above average paired with average power. But he hasn’t gotten better in other aspects in his last fight, a win over Ben Rothwell, Arlovski showed average wrestling and clinch work. Rozenstruik is 31 years old. 8-0 pro record. 2-0 in the UFC. Knockouts over Junior Albini and Allen Crowder. All his wins before the UFC were over cans but so far in the UFC he’s proved he might have contender potential. Above average striking. Plus power. Arlovski’s best chance will be to use his improved wrestling and clinch game to slow Rozenstruik down, but I don’t think he’ll get the chance too. 1st round knockout for Rozenstruik.

-Kevin Lee: Love this fight. Former title contender who’s lost 2 in a row takes on an undefeated elite prospect. Lee is only 27 years old. 10-4 UFC record at 155 lbs, And the last 3 out of 4 fights Lee has lost I think are fixable. His main problem is he gasses out after the first 2-3 rounds. He lost to Tony Ferguson in the 3rd round, along with the fact he fought with staph. He won the first 2 rounds of his fight with Al Iaquinta but then gassed out and lost the last 3. And Lee won the first 2 rounds against Rafael dos Anjos at 170 lbs only to lose steam in the 3rd round and was submitted in the 4th. He just needs to pace himself better and I think his new camp at Tristar will help with that. Plus this fight is 3 rounds. Lee has plus wrestling, above average striking and above average submissions. Gregor Gillespie is 32 years old. 13-0 pro record. 6-0 UFC record. But the best guys he’s beaten have been Vinc Pichel and Yancy Medeiros. Plus wrestling. Above average submission game. Average striking. Thing is in this fight, Lee is a gigantic step up in competition for Gillespie and most alarming for him is that he’s likely not going to be able to take Lee down. And in a kickboxing fight, Lee has a big advantage, especially in that it’s a 3 round fight. I like Lee to win the first 2 rounds of the striking and that’ll be enough to win by decision.

-Shane Burgos: Pretty interesting fight where the winner could potentially be a new contender at 145 lbs. Makwan Amirkhani is 30 years old. 5-1 UFC record. Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen. His most impressive fight was a submission win last time out against Chris Fishgold. The win over Fishgold tempts me to grade his grappling as plus, but the fight before that, he barely beat grappler Jason Knight by split decision. So the grappling is near plus. Burgos is 28 years old. Also has a 5-1 UFC record. Calvin Kattar knocked him out. But he does have wins over Charles Rosa, Godofredo Pepey, and his last fight he beat Cub Swanson by split decision. Burgos has plus striking paired with average power. Also has average grappling. Based on Burgos ability to withstand the grappling of Rosa, Pepey, and Swanson, I think Burgos can keep Amirkhani from taking him down. Majority of the fight stays on the feet. Burgos has a big advantage there. I like Burgos by decision.

-Edman Shahbazyan: Brad Tavares is super under rated. 31 years old. 12-5 UFC record. That’s an upper tier gate keeper. He only loses to the best. Yoel Romero. Tim Boestch, back when he was in his prime. Robert Whittaker. Israel Adesanya. He doesn’t really have any signature wins though. Biggest win was probably over Elias Theodorou. 17-5 pro record and he only has 5 knockouts and 2 submissions. Plus striking paired with below average power. Also has above average wrestling. Shahbazyan looks like a future title contender. Only 21 years old. 4-0 in the UFC so far. The knockout over Charles Byrd has been his best fight. But he barely beat Darren Stewart by split decision. And Stewart is a similar fighter to Tavares except Stewart has way more knockout power. Shahbazyan has easy plus striking to go along with average wrestling. This fight could be closer than the experts think like the Stewart fight but I think Shahbazyan learns from it. Doesn’t gas himself out knowing how durable Tavares is, and uses his speed to out point him on the feet. Shahbazyan by decision.

-Katlyn Chookagian: Chookagian is 30 years old. 5-2 UFC record. Both losses came from split decisions to Liz Carmouche and Jessica Eye. She does have wins over Lauren Murphy, Irene Aldana, Alexis Davis, and Joanne Calderwood. Striking is plus paired with below average power. Chookagian also has average wrestling. Jennifer Maia is 31 years old. 2-1 UFC record. Lost to Liz Carmouche. But bounced back in beating Alexis Davis and Roxanne Modafferi. Maia doesn’t have any elite tools but is very well rounded. Above average striking with below average power. And above average grappling. I don’t think Maia will be able to take Chookagian down. I think this is a stand up fight where Chookagian will have a big reach advantage, will be faster and should cruise to a decision win.

-Chance Rencountre: Rencountre’s win over Ismail Naurdiev says all you need to know on who’s winning this fight. Rencountre is 32 years old. 14-3 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Lost his UFC debut to Belal Muhammed. Belal had the wrestling to make it a kickboxing fight and won. But Rencountre bounced back winning the next 2 including the win over Ismail Naurdiev. And that win in particular is significant in that Naurdiev is an elite prospect who stuffed Michel Prazares’ take downs in his UFC debut on short notice. But Rencountre had no problem taking Naurdiev down at will. That fight leads me to grade Rencountre’s wrestling as plus. 3 of Rencountre’s 14 wins have come by submission. 3 of Rencountre’s last 4 wins have come by submission. And all 3 wins have been over quality prospects. So his submission game has definitely taken a step to where it’s slightly above average. Lyman Good is 34 years old. 2-2 UFC record. Lost a close split decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. No shame there. Also lost to Demian Maia who had no problem taking him down. Good has above average striking paired with plus power. So Good is still dangerous but I’m very confident that Rencountre will be able to take him down and I see Rencountre picking up the submission win by the 2nd round.

-Julio Arce: Razor close fight that I keep going back and forth on. Arce is 29 years old. 4-1 in the UFC. Lost a close split decision to Sheymon Moraes. But his decision win over Dan Ige continues to look better and better. Arce has a 16-3 pro record. 4 of the wins came by knockout. 2 of his last 4 wins have come by knockout. So in the past year or so, Arce has been finding a way to unlock his power. I grade Arce as having above average striking paired with average power. Above average wrestling, and an average submission game. He’s very well rounded. Hakeem Dawodu is 28 years old. 10-1-1 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. Fought a 7-0 grappler to a draw. Then rematched the same fighter and knocked him out. Dawodu’s only loss was getting submitted by Danny Henry. Dawodu has also knocked out a couple other 4-0 strikers and his take down defense was good enough to beat Kyle Bochniak by split decision. Dawodu has above average striking paired with average power. On the feet, this fight could go either way. But I have to give Arce the edge because I think he’s going to mix up his attacks enough to keep Dawodu off balanced. Close on the feet, but bake some take downs and clinch work into the fight and that will be enough to give Arce the split decision win.