Joseph Benavidez vs Deiveson Figueiredo
—Joseph Benavidez
Top fight where both fighters have elite plus plus tools. Deiveson Figueiredo is 32 years old. 6-1 UFC record. His only career loss was getting out grappled by Jussier Formiga. Knocked out Marco Beltran and John Moraga. Submitted Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja. Figueiredo has the rare plus plus striking. He has the most power in the whole 125 lb division. His wrestling has improved to being average. Benavidez is 35 years old. 13-3 UFC record at 125 lbs. His only losses have come from getting knocked out by Demetrious Johnson and then losing 2 close split decisions to Johnson and Sergio Pettis. He’s knocked out Alex Perez and Formiga, not once, but twice. Has submitted Elliott. Has beat Dustin Ortiz (twice), John Moraga, and Henry Cejudo. Benavidez has plus plus wrestling and plus striking. After losing to Sergio Pettis, I downgraded Benavidez’s wrestling down to just plus, but bumped it back up the way he dominated and controlled Dustin Ortiz. Yes, Figueiredo’s wrestling has gotten better. But just 11 months ago, Figueiredo fought Formiga and Formiga was able to take him down and control him. Benavidez has better wrestling than Formiga and I don’t think Figueiredo is going to be able to improve as much as he needs to from the past year. I think Benavidez gets the take downs and finishes Figueiredo with ground and pound in the 2nd round.
Felicia Spencer vs Zarah Fairn
—Felicia Spencer
Fairn is 33 years old. 6-3 pro record. Got submitted by Megan Anderson in her UFC debut. And has also lost to a 1-0 striker. All wins over cans. Fairn has above average striking. Spencer is 29 years old. 1-1 UFC record. 7-1 pro record. 12-2 combined pro and amateur record. Lost her last fight to Cris Cyborg. Went to a decision. Her only pro loss. Beat Macy Chiasson back in 2014. Submitted Megan Anderson, Pam Sorenson, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Spencer has plus grappling and above average striking. The only thing I need to say on how this fight will go, is that if Anderson can submit Fairn, I’m pretty sure Spencer will find a way too. 1st round.
Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba
—Magomed Ankalaev
Barn burner of a fight here with the winner becoming a likely contender. Ion Cutelaba is 26 years old. 4-3 UFC record. Has knockout wins over Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Khalil Rountree. Cutelaba has plus striking and average wrestling. Ankalaev is 27 years old. 11-1 pro record. 3-1 UFC record. His only career loss was being submitted by Paul Craig with 1 second left in the fight. Ankalaev knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula and beat Klidson Abreu. Also beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter in his 1st pro fight and a 9-3 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. And Ankalaev beat a well rounded 15-3 fighter, knocked out a 12-2 striker and a 13-3 striker. That’s an impressive resume. Ankalaev has plus striking and plus wrestling. Cutelaba has some wrestling, but as shown in losing to Glover Teixeira, he can be taken down and doesn’t do too well off his back. On the feet, the striking could be close to equal, but I think Ankalaev has the wrestling to take Cutelaba down and will TKO him with ground and pound in the 2nd round.
Megan Anderson vs Norma Dumont
—Megan Anderson
I’m happy the UFC seems to be building up the featherweight division. Norma Dumont is 29 years old. 4-0 pro record. All of Dumont’s wins are over cans. She has average grappling. Anderson is also 29 years old. 2-2 UFC record. Lost to Holly Holm and got submitted by Felecia Spencer. She has a TKO win over Cat Zingano and a submission win over a 6-2 striker. Anderson has plus striking and average grappling. Dumont has never fought anyone remotely close to Anderson’s level. Anderson will stuff the take downs and knock Dumont out in the 1st round.
Grant Dawson vs Darrick Minner
—Grant Dawson
Dawson is the hot prospect right now. 25 years old. 14-1 pro record. 3-0 in the UFC. And in my opinion, he had his true breakout in his last fight by taking down a standout wrestler in Michael Trizano and submitting him. It wowed me because almost all of Dawson’s other wins have been over cans. Trizano was a big step up. I thought he’d be able to stuff Dawson’s take downs and piece him up on the feet, but nope, Dawson got the take downs. Based on that, Dawson has easy plus wrestling and submissions. Darrick Minner is 29 years old. 24-10 pro record. He takes this fight on less than 2 weeks notice. 0-1 in the UFC so far. Got submitted by Herbert Burns. Minner has average grappling. Easy fight to pick. Dawson will dominate with the wrestling and get the TKO win via ground and pound in the 1st round.
Kyler Phillips vs Gabriel Silva
—Gabriel Silva
Kyler Phillips is 24 years old. 6-1 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC so far. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. All his other wins are over cans. And Phillips has lost to a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Phillips has average striking. Silva is 25 years old. 8-1 pro record. Lost his UFC debut to Ray Borg. Silva has knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 7-0 wrestler. Beat a 5-1 striker and a 15-4 striker. Silva has above average striking and wrestling that’s close to average. Silva should have the better striking here. Has fought way better competition. And if for some reason Silva struggles on the feet, he might even have enough wrestling to take Phillips down. More ways to win. Silva by decision.
Brendan Allen vs Tom Breese
—Brendan Allen
This fight is going to come down to the wrestling. Tom Breese is 28 years old. Has only had 1 fight since 2016. Interesting thing about Breese is when he signed with the UFC, he was 7-0, 6 submission wins, 1 knockout. But in the UFC, he has a 4-1 record and 3 of his 4 wins have come by knockout. So his striking has improved dramatically. Lost a close split decision to Sean Strickland. Has knocked out Cathal Pendred and Daniel Kelly. Also has a win over Keita Nakamura. Breese has plus striking and above average grappling. Allen is 24 years old. 13-3 pro record. 2-0 UFC record so far. He submitted Kevin Holland in his last fight. Which is ultra impressive because even Thiago Santos at 205 lbs wasn’t able to finish Holland. And Holland took that fight on super short notice. Allen has also submitted a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. And he’s beat an 8-1 striker. Allen has plus wrestling and grappling. He also has average striking. If Allen can’t take Breese down, he’s in trouble. But with how easily Allen got Holland to the ground, I think he can do the same with Breese. There could be some scrambles. I don’t think Allen will submit Breese, but Allen will get enough take downs and do enough on the ground to win by decision.
Luis Pena vs Steve Garcia
—Steve Garcia
Luis Pena is 26 years old. 4-2 UFC record. Lost close split decisions to Michael Trizano and Matt Frevola. Knocked out Matt Wiman. Beat a 4-0 striker. Pena has striking that’s a little above average paired with below average power. And also has average wrestling. Garcia is 27 years old. 11-3 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC so far. Was submitted by Aalon Cruz. Lost a split decision to a 5-0 wrestler. Has knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Split decision win over a 5-0 grappler. Garcia has above average striking and average wrestling. The recipe for beating Garcia used to be take him down and hold him there. But he’s improved his wrestling, especially when he knocked out the 7-1 grappler. Garcia is a big lightweight. And I don’t think Pena is going to be able to take him down. On the feet, it’ll be close, but Garcia has fight ending power and Pena doesn’t. I’m picking the upset. Garcia by 2nd round knockout.
Marcin Tybura vs Serghei Spivac
—Serghei Spivac
Marcin Tybura is 34 years old. 4-5 UFC record. He’s lost 4 out of his last 5 fights. 3 of the 4 losses were knockout losses. 2 of the knockouts were from Augusto Sakai and Shamil Abdurakhimov. Tybura has also lost to Timothy Johnson. His biggest wins are decisions over Andrei Arlovski and Stefan Struve. Tybura has average striking and average grappling. Spivac is 25 years old. Really young for a heavyweight. 1-1 in the UFC. Got knocked out by Walt Harris. But bounced back to submit Tai Tuivasa in his last fight. He also has a another submission win over a 5-1 striker. Spivac has above average grappling and average striking. On paper, the skills of these two look similar. But the career trajectories are going in opposite directions. I think this fight will be on the feet. And the difference will be that I think Tybura’s chin is gone. Spivac by 2nd round knockout.
Jordan Griffin vs TJ Brown
—Jordan Griffin
TJ Brown is 29 years old. 11-6 pro record. Won his UFC debut by submitting a 6-1 striker. He’s been knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker. His other big win was a submission over an 8-1 striker. Brown has average grappling. Griffin is 29 years old. 17-7 pro record. 1-2 in the UFC so far. Lost to Chas Skelley and Dan Ige. Has a majority decision over a 10-2 striker. Knocked out an 8-2 wrestler. And submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Griffin has average striking and average grappling. Brown will want this fight on the ground but Griffin will able to keep it on the feet. Griffin’s striking is way better. He’s going to knock Brown out in the 2nd round.
Aalon Cruz vs Spike Carlyle
—Aalon Cruz
Cruz is 30 years old. 8-2 pro record. Knocked out a 3-0 grappler in his UFC debut. Also beat an 8-2 grappler and submitted a 7-2 striker. Cruz has been submitted by a 3-0 grappler. Cruz has average striking, average wrestling, and average submissions. Spike Carlyle is 26 years old. 8-1 pro record. He’s taking this fight on 2 weeks notice. Only career loss was to a 8-11 wrestler. He beat an 11-3 grappler. Carlyle has average wrestling. This is likely to be a stand up fight. I’m confident Cruz has better striking. I’m picking Cruz by decision.
Ismail Naurdiev vs Sean Brady
—Ismail Naurdiev
Two top prospects colliding here. Sean Brady is 27 years old. 11-0 pro record. Beat Court McGee in his UFC debut. He’s also beat a 5-0 wrestler and knocked out an 8-1 striker. Brady has above average wrestling and average striking. Naurdiev is 23 years old. 19-3 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Got out wrestled by Chance Rencountre. Got submitted by a pro debuting fighter back in his 5th pro fight. And lost to a well rounded 15-6 fighter. Naurdiev has decision wins over Michel Prazares and Siyar Bahadurzada. Knocked out an 18-3 wrestler. Naurdiev has plus striking paired with above average power. He also has wrestling that’s above average. The wrestling is going to decide this fight. Naurdiev was able to stuff Prazares’ take downs and took Bahadurzada down, controlled him. But Rencountre was able to take Naurdiev down and control him for most of the fight. Based on what I’ve seen, I think Naurdiev will keep this fight on the feet and at least get back up if taken down. On the feet with the striking, that’s all Naurdiev. So I think Naurdiev out points Brady to win by decision.