Alistair Overeem vs Walt Harris
—Walt Harris
Alistair Overeem is 39 years old. 10-7 UFC record. Knocked out Junior dos Santos, Mark Hunt, Sergei Pavlovich, and Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision win over Fabricio Werdum. Overeem has plus striking. He also has near plus wrestling and average grappling. Harris is 36 years old. 6-6 UFC record. 1 of the losses was a weird DQ loss to Mark Godbeer. Lost a split decision to Shamil Abdurakhimov. Knocked out Chase Sherman, Cyril Asker, Daniel Spitz, Sergei Spivac, and Alexei Oleinik. Harris has plus striking and above average wrestling. This fight is a real coin flip to me. Overeem probably has the better wrestling. Might be able to take Harris down a couple times if he really wants to. And the past few years, Harris’ striking has gone to another level. Overeem’s striking seems to have taken a slight step back. Harris has a lot less mileage on his body. This fight could really go either way. Either fighter could win by knockout. So this is a real projection pick. At UFC 249, I picked Fabricio Werdum and Dominick Cruz, and got both wrong. Main reason is that both fighter’s skills really regressed. Regression happens. Harris is on an upward trend right now and I see Overeem regressing. Therefore I’m projecting that Harris blitzes Overeem and doesn’t give him a chance to wrestle. Same as he did to Oleinik. Harris by 1st round knockout.
Claudia Gadelha vs Angela Hill
—Claudia Gadelha
Angela Hill is 35 years old. 6-5 UFC record. Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Split decision win over Livinha Souza. Beat Maryna Moroz. Hill has above average striking paired with average power. She also has wrestling that’s a little above average. Gadelha is 31 years old. 6-4 UFC record. 3 of her 4 losses came against champions. Submitted Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Beat Randa Markos. Split decision win over Carla Esparza. Gadelha has plus grappling and near plus wrestling. She also has above average striking. Hill is on the biggest hot streak in her career. And her improved wrestling has been the key driver. But Gadelha is a horrible matchup for her. Because if Esparza wasn’t able to take Gadelha down, Hill won’t be able to either. Matter of fact, I have Gadelha’s wrestling so far ahead of Hill’s, I actually think Gadelha’s best path to win is taking Hill down. On the feet, it’ll be close. But I’m picking Gadelha because I see her being able to take Hill down and getting the submission win by the 2nd round.
Edson Barboza vs Dan Ige
—Dan Ige
Edson Barboza is 34 years old. 14-8 UFC record at 155 lbs. He’s making his 145 lb debut here. Knocked out Dan Hooker and Beneil Dariush. Beat Anthony Pettis and Gilbert Melendez. Barboza has plus striking and above average wrestling. Ige is 28 years old. 6-1 UFC record. Submitted Danny Henry. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Beat Mirsad Bektic by split decision. Ige has plus striking and near plus grappling. This fight is all about whether Ige can take Barboza down. Not only do I think that Ige has the grappling to get that done, but the intangibles also favor Ige. Older fighters that try to move down in weight almost never do well. If anything, Barboza should try and move up to 170 lbs. Not cut weight. How durable is Barboza going to be? How will his cardio be? This isn’t exactly the easiest time to cut weight right now. Ige is coming into his prime. Has been developing and getting better. I really like Ige here and think he’ll get the submission win in the 2nd round.
Eryk Anders vs Krzysztof Jotko
—Eryk Anders
Anders is 33 years old. 4-3 UFC record at 185 lbs. Lost split decisions to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou. Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Markus Perez. Beat Gerald Meerschaert by split decision. Anders has above average striking and near plus wrestling. Krzysztof Jotko is 30 years old. 8-4 UFC record. Submitted by Magnus Cedenblad. Lost a split decision to David Branch. Beat Thales Leites. Jotko has above average striking paired with below average power. He also has wrestling that’s a little above average. If push came to shove, I think Anders could take Jotko down if he really wanted to. I had Anders with above average wrestling previously, but then he fought Meerschaert and Meerschaert who’s got easy plus grappling, came nowhere close to taking Anders down. He made one or two attempts and then gave up on it. Jotko has been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights. If they stand and trade, strikes landed could be close to equal but Anders has another path to win because he has knockout power and Jotko doesn’t. Two legit paths to win. But I’ll go with Anders by 2nd round knockout.
Marlon Vera vs Yadong Song
—Marlon Vera
Vera is 27 years old. 9-4 UFC record. Won 5 in a row, all of them finishes. Lost to Marco Beltran and Davey Grant in 2 of his first 3 UFC fights. Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. Vera has near plus striking and above average grappling. Yadong is 22 years old. 4-0-1 UFC record. Fought Cody Stamann to a draw. Knocked out Felipe Arantes and Alejandro Perez. Yadong has plus striking and average wrestling. Yadong looks like he’s on his way to becoming a title contender, but he’s still developing. Striking is this fight should be close and if it plays out on the feet, either guy could be knocked out. But Yadong hasn’t fought a grappler on Vera’s level yet. Yadong is only 22 years old. He hasn’t hit his prime in terms of strength. And I don’t think his wrestling is at a high enough level yet to stop Vera from eventually getting him on the ground. Vera will have a monster advantage there and as a +150 underdog, I’m picking Vera by 2nd round submission.
Matt Brown vs Miguel Baeza
—Miguel Baeza
Baeza is 27 years old. 8-0 pro record. Beat a 10-3 striker by decision in his UFC debut on the Contender Series. All other wins over cans. Baeza has above average striking. Matt Brown is 39 years old. 15-10 UFC record. He’s only won 2 out of his last 5 fights. Submitted Tim Means and knocked out Diego Sanchez. 1 of the 3 losses was him getting knocked out by Jake Ellenberger. Brown has fought only once in the past 2 and a half years. Brown has average striking paired with above average power. He also has average grappling. Some people might first look at this fight and go, oh, Baeza has no chance. Brown has 2 knockout wins in a row. Look at his resume. But I’d counter in saying he knocked out Diego Sanchez and Ben Saunders. And Brown is 39 years old now. I’m sure the weight cut for him can’t be easy. Baeza needs to look out for the power. But as long as he does that, I’m projecting his striking to take another step forward. He should be faster and have better cardio. I like Baeza by decision.
Kevin Holland vs Anthony Hernandez
—Kevin Holland
Holland is 27 years old. 4-1 UFC record at 185 lbs. Got submitted by Brendan Allen. Beat Gerald Meerschaert by split decision. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Holland has near plus striking paired with fringe average power. He also has above average grappling. Hernandez is 26 years old. 7-1 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC. He beat Brendan Allen in 2018 outside the UFC. Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 9-0 opponent. Hernandez has above average grappling and average wrestling. He also has average striking. Bad matchup for Hernandez. His best tool is his grappling. And he won’t be able to get to it in the fight. Holland will force him to trade on the feet where he’ll have a monster advantage. Holland will cruise to a decision win.
Giga Chikadze vs Irwin Rivera
—Giga Chikadze
Chikadze is 31 years old. 9-2 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Was submitted by a 10-2 striker. Beat Jamall Emmers and Brandon Davis by split decision. Chikadze has striking that’s a little above average. He also has average wrestling. Irwin Rivera is 31 years old. 9-4 pro record. Knocked out by a 3-3 fighter and a 5-2 striker. Lost to a 2-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler. Rivera has fringe average striking. To the eye, Chikadze has very fluid, very dynamic striking. But he failed to dominate Brandon Davis the way I thought he should. And when Emmers couldn’t take Chikadze down and they traded strikes, I thought for sure it’d be a matter of time before Chikadze got the knockout, but it never came. So he’s still developing. Credit to Rivera for taking this fight on 48 hours notice. And on the surface, it’d be easy to dismiss him as having no chance in this fight. 9-4 record. Not a young prospect. But he is coming off the biggest win in his career, which was a knockout over a legit 27 year old prospect. This fight might be closer than people think in the first round. But I think it’s impossible for Rivera to have much gas in the tank. I see Chikadze getting the knockout in the 2nd round.
Cortney Casey vs Mara Romero Borella
—Cortney Casey
Casey is 33 years old. 4-6 UFC record. Lost to Seo Hee Ham. Lost split decisions to Felice Herrig and Michelle Waterson. Submitted Randa Markos. Beat Angela Hill by split decision. Casey has near plus wrestling and grappling that’s a little above average. She also has striking that’s a little above average. Mara Romero Borella is 33 years old. 2-3 UFC record. Lost to Montana de la Rosa. Knocked out by Lauren Murphy. Knocked Kalindra Faria down and submitted her. Beat a 15-0 striker by split decision. Borella has striking that’s a little above average. She also has average wrestling and average grappling. Casey could easily have a 6-4 UFC record as her 2 losses to Herrig and Waterson were really close. But there’s a very doable path for her to win. Striking here is about equal, but it’s been proven you can beat Borella by taking her down. I think Casey will be able to do that and will do enough on the ground to pick up the decision win.
Darren Elkins vs Nate Landwehr
—Darren Elkins
Elkins is 35 years old. 14-7 UFC record. Lost to Ryan Hall. And lost to Hacran Dias in 2014. Knocked out Mirsad Bektic, but that had more to do with Bektic gassing out. Beat Chas Skelly and Godofredo Pepey. Beat Dennis Bermudez by split decision. Elkins has near plus wrestling and striking that’s a little above average. Landwehr is 31 years old. 13-3 pro record. Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). That’s 6 high level wins. Landwehr has wrestling that’s a little bit above average. He also has average striking. Landwehr is an intriguing prospect, despite being older than most prospects and getting knocked out by Herbert Burns in his UFC debut. But it’s going to be pretty hard for him to win this fight. He’s beat a lot of quality guys outside the UFC, but he mainly uses his wrestling to do it. And he’s not going to be able to take Elkins down. Elkins is best known for his durability, so Landwehr likely isn’t knocking him out. Can Landwehr out point Elkins in striking exchanges on the feet? Maybe. But it’s too narrow a path to win for me to pick him, regardless of the fact Elkins might be heading towards the end of his career and Landwehr is just getting started. I see Elkins out wrestling Landwehr and barely winning the striking on the feet. That’ll lead to an Elkins decision win.
Don’Tale Mayes vs Rodrigo Nascimento
—Don’Tale Mayes
Mayes is 28 years old. 7-3 pro record, although 1 loss came from a DQ. 2-2 UFC record. Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Knocked out a 10-1 grappler and a 4-0 striker. Mayes has striking that’s a little above average. He also has wrestling that’s a little above average. Rodrigo Nascimento is 27 years old. 7-0 pro record. 1-0 in the UFC so far. Submitted a 7-0 striker. All other wins over cans. Nascimento has average grappling. Heavyweight can have a steep learning curve as Mayes got his first UFC fight with a 3-1 pro record. Thin division. Since losing to Crowder and dropping to a 3-2 record, Mayes has won 4 out of his last 5 fights and only lost to rising contender Ciryl Gane. It’s possible that Nascimento’s grappling is better than average, but hard to tell due to the poor competition he’s gone against. Regardless, I don’t see Nascimento being able to take Mayes down. Fight stays on the feet. Mayes by 1st round knockout.