Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2
- Conor McGregor
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and Donald Cerrone. Majority decision over Nate Diaz.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65).
- Max Holloway
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 2-2 at 155 lbs. 23-8 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Gaethje, The Korean Zombie, Brian Ortega, Jose Aldo (twice), Anthony Pettis, and Charles Oliveira. Beat Dustin Poirier, Arnold Allen, Yair Rodriguez, Frankie Edgar, Jeremy Stephens and Ricardo Lamas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Holloway by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holloway -250
Paddy Pimblett vs Benoit Saint Denis
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted King Green, Jordan Leavitt, Kazula Vargas, a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Michael Chandler, Luigi Vendramini, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Tony Ferguson and Julian Erosa.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Benoit Saint Denis
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-2 at 155 lbs. 9-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mauricio Ruffy, Ismael Bonfim, Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Dan Hooker, Beneil Dariush, Matt Frevola, Thiago Moises, Gabriel Miranda, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Pimblett by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pimblett -225
Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista
- Cory Sandhagen
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 11-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Rob Font, Yadong Song, and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision wins over Marlon Vera and John Lineker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat Patchy Mix, Ricky Simon, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler. Split decision over Jose Aldo.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sandhagen -250
Brandon Royval vs Lone’er Kavanagh
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Matheus Nicolau a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision wins over Tatsuro Taira, Brandon Moreno, and Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Lone’er Kavanagh
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Brandon Moreno, Felipe dos Santos, Jose Ochoa, and a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Royval by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Royval -225
King Green vs Terrance McKinney
- King Green
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 14-12-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jeremy Stephens and Tony Ferguson. Knocked out Daniel Zellhuber, Grant Dawson and Al Iaquinta. Beat Jim Miller, Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch. Split decision over Lance Gibson Jr.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Nelson, Brendon Marotte, Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Slava Borshchev and Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McKinney -135
Robert Whittaker vs Nikita Krylov
- Robert Whittaker
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 14-5 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Renier de Ridder.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ikram Aliskerov, Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero (twice), MarvinJared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas, Alexander Gustafsson, Ed Herman, and Walt Harris. Submitted Ryan Spann, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux. Beat Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I can now say for sure that Whittaker’s tools have started to regress as Renier de Ridder out struck him 54 to 51 and de Ridder also accrued more than 9 minutes of control time on the ground. Krylov’s grappling is just as good and he’s also bigger than de Ridder so I see this fight playing out in a similar way.
Chris’ Pick: Krylov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Krylov -200
Gable Stevenson vs Elisha Ellison
- Gable Stevenson
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Elisha Ellison
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Stevenson by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Stevenson -500
Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez
- Cody Garbrandt
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-6 at 135 lbs. 10-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Pedro Munhoz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Assuncao and Thomas Almeida. Beat Long Xiao, Trevin Jones, and Dominick Cruz.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Daniel Marcos, Domingo Pilarte in 2017, and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador, Tony Kelley, Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
At this point, it’s possible Garbrandt’s tools could be as low as 55’s.
Chris’ Pick: Yanez by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yanez -400
Luke Riley vs Kai Kamaka III
- Luke Riley
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 grappler, a 5-0 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Michael Aswell and a 10-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kai Kamaka III
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to TJ Brown.
- Key Draws: Fought Danny Chavez to majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-1 wrestler and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Split decision over Dakota Hope.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Kamaka III out struck Hope 83 to 61 so I think Kamaka’s striking has leveled up to a 65, unless I’m over rating Hope and am too high on his tools.
Chris’ Pick: Riley by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Riley -135
Tracy Cortez vs Cong Wang
- Tracy Cortez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Beat Jasmine Jasudavicius, Melissa Gatto, Mariya Agapova, and Stephanie Egger. Split decision wins over Justin Kish and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Wang Cong
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Eduarda Moura, Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Wang by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Wang -250
Cesar Almeida vs Damian Pinas
- Cesar Almeida
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Roman Kopylov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abdul Razak Alhassan and Dylan Budka. Beat Ihor Potieria and a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Damian Pinas
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Wesley Schultz, an 8-1 striker, an 11-3 grappler, and a 6-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -135
Farid Basharat vs John Garza
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Kleydson Rodrigues. Beat Chris Gutierrez, Victor Hugo, Taylor Lapilus, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Split decision over Jean Matsumoto.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- John Garza
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Garza has good cardio and maybe his wrestling is a 60 but when he’s coming in on a week’s notice against Basharat, it probably won’t matter.
Chris’ Pick: Basharat by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Basharat -250
Ryan Gandra vs Zachary Reese
- Ryan Gandra
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a 3-0 striker, and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michel Pereira.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Dusko Todorovic and Jose Medina.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
It’s possible Reese’s striking might have leveled up to a 70 as he out struck Michel Pereira 72 to 53 in his last fight.
Chris’ Pick: Reese by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Reese -225
Cody Durden vs Alessandro Costa
- Cody Durden
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-8-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted Matt Schnell and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jafel Filho, Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell, Stewart Nicoll, Kevin Borjas, Jimmy Flick and a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -175