Curtis Blaydes vs Derrick Lewis
- Curtis Blaydes
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexey Oleinik, Alistair Overeem, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Mark Hunt, and Justin Willis.
- Tools: Blaydes has near plus striking (65) and plus wrestling (70).
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Tools: Lewis has near plus striking paired with near plus plus power (65-75). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Yeah, I can see the logic of Blaydes winning here. He’ll just take Lewis down again and again. But Lewis has been sneaky in improving his wrestling the past year. And improving his physique and conditioning has definitely helped too. Oleinik took Lewis down multiple times with his 70 grappling, but Lewis got up repeatedly. I think that’s what happens here too. And we’ve seen that Blaydes can be knocked out by big power. I could be wrong. I think it’s a coin flip fight. But with Lewis above +250 in many books, it’s too tempting to pass up.
Chris’ Pick: Lewis by 3rd round knockout.
Ketlen Vieira vs Yana Kunitskaya
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Sijara Eubanks and Ashley Evans-Smith.
- Tools: Vieira has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Yana Kunitskaya
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 3-1 at 135 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Marion Reneau and Lina Lansberg.
- Tools: Kunitskaya has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
Kunitskaya is pretty similar to Vieira’s last opponent Eubanks. 65 wrestler with 60 striking. I think there’s a straight forward path for Vieira to win here by out striking Kunitskaya.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
Charles Rosa vs Darrick Minner
- Charles Rosa
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
- Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Beat Kyle Bochniak. Split decision over Kevin Aguilar.
- Tools: Rosa has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Darrick Minner
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 25-11
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted TJ Laramie, a 10-3 grappler, a 13-4 grappler, a 7-2 grappler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat an 11-4 grappler.
- Tools: Minner has below average striking (40) and above average grappling (60).
If you can find Rosa at anywhere near -175, anything under -200 frankly, there’s tremendous value in that. The line isn’t heavier for Rosa probably because some in the betting public think Minner might have a grappling advantage, but I can assure you, that’s not the case. Their grappling is about equal here. Which means stand up fight. Which means Rosa dominating.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by 2nd round knockout.
Alexei Oleinik vs Chris Daukaus
- Aleksei Oleinik
- Age: 43
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Daniel Omielanczuk in his UFC debut.
- Key Wins: Submitted Maurice Greene, Travis Browne, and Mark Hunt. Knocked out Jared Rosholt. Split decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
- Tools: Oleinik has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
- Chris Daukaus
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rodrigo Nascimento.
- Tools: Daukaus has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
It’s possible Oleinik’s striking is better than a 60. He fought Fabricio Werdum and the striking was pretty close to equal. But Werdum looked like a shell of his former self. Or did Oleinik just make him look that way? Then Oleinik fought Derek Lewis and I didn’t see enough striking to change the grade. Does Daukaus have some wrestling? Yeah. Will it be good enough to keep Oleinik off of him? Nope. I’m pretty shocked actually that Daukaus is the favorite coming into this fight. Oleinik has won me many an upset pick and I think that continues here.
Chris’ Pick: Oleinik by 2nd round submission.
Phil Hawes vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Hawes has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 wrestler and a 9-1 striker. Beat Jordan Williams and a 12-4 grappler.
- Tools: Imavov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Anything under -200 for Hawes is gold here. I want to grade his striking a 65, but the reality is that the guy he fought on The Contender isn’t that good. And although his last opponent Jacob Malkoun was a -250 favorite, it’s not like we can say for sure that Hawes has the better striking as Hawes knocked Malkoun out in 18 seconds. But it’s for sure at least a 60. And I really wasn’t that thrilled with Imavov’s win over Jordan Williams. I was surprised how grappling heavy his approach was despite the lack of results. Hawes is better everywhere and has a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.
Andrei Arlovski vs Tom Aspinall
- Andrei Arlovski
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 9-9 in his 2nd stint.
- Key Losses: Lost to Tai Tuivasa. Split decision loss to Augusto Sakai.
- Key Wins: Beat Tanner Boser and Ben Rothwell.
- Tools: Arlovski has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Collier and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Aspinall has near plus striking (65) and average wrestling (50).
Arlovski has won 3 out of his last 4 fights and turned potential contenders away in Philippe Lins and Tanner Boser. But Aspinall looks like he’s on another tier despite fighting for only 2 minutes in 2 fights. My only concern in picking Aspinall is not knowing what his cardio looks like. As in, if he can’t finish Arlovski quick, does he run out of gas towards the end of the fight? Arlovski is pretty durable. But then again, Aspinall’s last 5 fights, he’s finished them all in less than 2 minutes. And Arlovski’s last loss was getting knocked out by Jairzinho Rozenstruik in 30 seconds.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 1st round knockout.
Jared Gordan vs Danny Chavez
- Jared Gordon
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
- Key Wins: Beat Chris Fishgold.
- Tools: Gordon has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
- Danny Chavez
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Chavez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Chavez is a pretty interesting fighter. Has improved his striking massively. Well rounded now. Gordon remains pretty one dimensional and I think relies on his wrestling too much.
Chris’ Pick: Chavez by decision.
Drakkar Klose vs Luis Pena
- Drakkar Klose
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Beat Bobby Green. Split decision over Marc Diakiese.
- Tools: Klose has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Luis Pena
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Michael Trizano and Matt Frevola.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Wiman. Beat a 4-0 striker.
- Tools: Pena has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Most fighters that have great wrestling usually have great cardio. But that’s not exactly the case with Pena. I’d never really noticed it before, but in his last fight with Khama Worthy, he gassed out at the end of the fight. He was winning the fight because of his wrestling. But when Pena started to gas out, Worthy was able to stuff the take downs, grab Pena’s neck and get the guillotine submission win. And that’s going to be a problem for Pena in this fight. Klose has slightly better wrestling, better cardio.
Chris’ Pick: Klose by decision.
John Castaneda vs Eddie Wineland
- John Castaneda
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 17-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat a 6-0 grappler.
- Tools: Castaneda has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Eddie Wineland
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-8
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Johnny Eduardo. Lost to Bryan Caraway and Alejandro Perez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Grigory Popov.
- Tools: Wineland has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Really close fight. Castaneda came in to fight Nathaniel Wood on short notice and I thought Castaneda would get smashed pretty quickly. I thought Castaneda had average tools across the board. But he was more competitive than I thought he’d be. Wood tried a few times to take Castaneda to the ground and wasn’t able to do it. And I’m very confident that Wood’s grappling is at least a 65. Wineland looked pretty good knocking out Popov. But that was back in 2019. And he’s still lost 3 of his last 4 fights. He’s 36 years old. Retired once already. Came back. And Wineland has been fighting once a year since 2017. I haven’t seen Wineland’s wrestling tested in awhile. Maybe it’s regressed to a 50. Castaneda might be able to wrestle his way towards a win. If you can find Castaneda at plus money, I think there’s a bit of value in that.
Chris’ Pick: Castaneda by decision.
Nate Landwehr vs Julian Erosa
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice).
- Tools: Landwehr has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Julian Erosa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Artem Lobov and Teruto Ishihara.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Sean Woodson.
- Tools: Erosa has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really close fight. And the betting public agrees as the fight is currently a pick em. Erosa showed a .lot of heart in his last fight with Woodson, pulling off the massive upset. Woodson was out striking Erosa, but only by a slim margin. Then Erosa got Woodson’s neck and finished the fight. Nice to see Erosa finally getting some respect. But this is a very different fight with Landwehr. Landwehr is one of these guys that uses his pace and cardio as a weapon. The striking will be close. Landwehr’s wrestling is probably a little better, but it’s going to be Landwehr’s cardio that helps him pull away towards the end.
Chris’ Pick: Landwehr by decision.
Pat Sabatini vs Rafael Alves
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Sabatini has fringe average striking (45) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Rafael Alves
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 19-9
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-3 striker, a well rounded 36-15 fighter, and a 4-1-1 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 16-2 wrestler, a 5-1 grappler, a 9-2 striker, and a 14-2 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Beat a 16-5 grappler.
- Tools: Alves has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I just watched film on Sabatini, and I got to admit, his grappling was a bit better than I thought it’d be. Especially his last fight against a 10-3 grappler. Sabatini dominated. But unfortunately for him, Alves has grappling too. And also has striking.
Chris’ Pick: Alves by decision.
Shana Dobson vs Casey O’Neill
- Shana Dobson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Priscila Cachoeira. Lost to Lauren Mueller.
- Tools: Dobson has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Casey O’Neill
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 4-1 striker.
- Tools: O’Neill has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
After seeing Dobson’s shocking upset win over Mariya Agapova, some might be tempted to think that Dobson took a huge step forward in her skills. But that’s not the case. Agapova gassed out, made a mistake going all in to finish the fight in the 1st round. Dobson got dominated in the stand up in the 1st round. Her striking is still a 50, although, yeah, her wrestling did look better. A 55 grade from me now. O’Neill is a top prospect. She’s had such a hard time finding fights, she’s fought up 2 weight classes. She’s very well rounded. And as long as she stays efficient and controls her pace, her striking should prevail here.
Chris’ Pick: O’Neill by decision.
Chas Skelly vs Jamall Emmers
- Chas Skelly
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Jason Knight.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Greutezemacher.
- Tools: Skelly has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Tools: Emmers has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Coin flip of a fight. Skelly is one of these guys in the UFC that’s old, that’s been around for awhile, and likely has no shot of getting to a title fight. And guys like him are over looked. But he has a 7-3 UFC record! That’s really, really good. His striking has improved and I think Emmers is a little bit too heavy for me at -200. Initially, I was going to pick Skelly, but after rewatching Emmers’ last fight with Vince Cachero, I think Emmers will have a cardio advantage and will put an uncomfortable pace on Skelly.
Chris’ Pick: Emmers by decision.
Aiemann Zahabi vs Drako Rodriguez
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
- Key Wins: Beat a 13-4 grappler.
- Tools: Zahabi has fringe average striking (45). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Drako Rodriguez
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and a 5-1 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
A lot of people think highly of Zahabi’s skills, but I’m probably the low man on projecting him. He was the favorite going into his last fight with Vince Morales. With Zahabi, I don’t see any tools that stand out. He’s got average wrestling, average grappling. I was confident Morales would upset Zahabi and he did. Rodriguez’s ground game is slightly better, but he’ll beat Zahabi because of his vast striking advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
Serghei Spivac vs Jared Vanderaa
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tai Tuivasa and a 5-1 striker. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Tools: Spivac has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Jared Vanderaa
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter.
- Tools: Vanderaa has fringe average striking (45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
I’m really torn on this fight. On paper, it looks like Spivac will win here. And the lines agree as Spivac is currently a little over a 2 to 1 favorite. On paper, it seems like Vanderaa’s wrestling is a 55. But Vanderaa trains at Team Quest. That means he can really wrestle. I’m going to stick my neck out a little, give Vanderaa’s wrestling a 60 grade. Which means I think he can take Spivac down.
Chris’ Pick: Vanderaa by decision.