
Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov
- Ciryl Gane
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Junior dos Santos. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tanner Boser.
- Tools: Gane has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Greg Hardy.
- Tools: Volkov has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
I’m excited to see Gane fight. He’s an actual, legit threat to beating Francis Ngannou. And they also happen to be former training partners at the MMA Factory in Paris. I predict this fight is going to be pretty similar to Gane’s fight with Rozenstruik. Gane will use his reach, stay on the outside. He’s more interested in volume than power. And he’s brilliant defensively in not getting hit. I only have his grapping at a 60 for now. It could be a 65. And that’s a possible way for Volkov to win. Volkov proved his wrestling has improved to a 65 with the way he stuffed Overeem’s take downs. Volkov also has more power. That’s Volkov’s best chance of winning. He can win. Live dog. But Gane is more likely to win. He’s shown he can go 5 rounds. Shown he can stay disciplined on the outside. I think Gane is on track for a title shot in 2022.
Chris’ Pick: Gane by decision.
Tanner Boser vs Ovince St Preux
- Tanner Boser
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski. Split decision loss to Ilir Latifi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raphael Pessoa and Philipe Lins.
- Tools: Boser has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).
- Ovince St Preux
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 0-1 at heavyweight. 13-10 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Ben Rothwell and Volkan Oezdemir.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Corey Anderson, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Tyson Pedro, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, and Yushin Okami.
- Tools: St Preux has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
I’ll admit it. The type of performance Boser put on in his last fight, I didn’t see it coming. He was coming off a loss to Andrei Arlovski. I down graded his striking to a 60. I picked Ilir Latifi to beat him. And Latifi did beat Boser, by split decision. But I’m upgrading Boser’s tools and calling him a near lock to beat St Preux. The thing is, Boser did impress and show improvement despite the loss. I hadn’t really seen him wrestle going into that fight and although he lost because of getting taken down, he was able to get back up and was only taken down a couple times, against a 65 grappler in Latifi. But his striking, he out struck Latifi by close to a 3 to 1 clip. And I know Latifi has 60 striking by the way he held his own against Derrick Lewis. With St. Preux, yes, he looked good when he knocked out Alonzo Menfield. But I saw a big drop off in his tools in his last fight with Jamahal Hill. Hill really out classed St Preux on the feet. And the other factor in this fight is heavyweight is the most difficult weight class to move up in. St Preux already tried it against Ben Rothwell and he lost, quite simply because of Rothwell’s size. Rothwell would just pin him against the fence. He won’t have that problem here with Boser, a striker, but Boser’s size and power is going to be too much. St Preux, at 38 years old, is finally starting to regress. Boser is 9 years younger. I don’t see any path to victory for St Preux.
Chris’ Pick: Boser by 2nd round knockout.
Raoni Barcelos vs Timur Valiev
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Khalid Taha and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Tools: Barcelos has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Timur Valiev
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 17-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Guttierez
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a well rounded 19-2 fighter. Submitted a 25-5 striker. Beat Chris Guttierez, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a 19-2 wrestler, and a 15-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Valiev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Most people know Barcelos has striking. What not everyone knows though is Barcelos has wrestling too. He fought a 60 wrestler in Said Nurmagomedov. And he got the better of Said wrestling wise. Took Said down. Took his back. I know Valiev gets a lot of hype and expectation, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to take Barcelos down. Which would mean the fight is on the feet. And yes, Valiev is fast. But I don’t see him being much of a threat against Barcelos who’ll have a big power advantage. And I know Valiev’s fight with Trevin Jones was changed to a no contest, but it was nullified due to Jones testing positive for marijuana. Not a performance enhancer. Jones might be better than we think, he did knock out Mario Bautista. But to me, that knockout over Valiev is legit and if Jones can do it, I’m decently confident that Barcelos can too.
Chris’ Pick: Barcelos by 2nd round knockout.
Andre Fili vs Daniel Pineda
- Andre Fili
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision over Charles Jourdain.
- Tools: Fili has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Daniel Pineda
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 1-1 in 2nd UFC stint. 4-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns
- Tools: Pineda has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
Pineda has had quite the comeback. He went 3-4 in the UFC. Got released. Then he actually improved and got brought back. He knocked out Burns. And was looking good in the stand up against Cub Swanson before getting knocked out. He prefers to use his grappling, but he’s not going to be able to get Fili down. Bryce Mitchell was barely able to get Fili down, took him down a few times, but Fili kept getting up. Which means the fight plays out on the feet where Fili is the superior striker. The only danger in picking Fili is the fact that Pineda has more power, but that’s about it.
Chirs’ Pick: Fili by decision.
Tim Means vs Nicholas Dalby
- Tim Means
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 11-7 at 170 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Mike Perry and Laureano Staropoli.
- Tools: Means has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Nicholas Dalby
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Daniel Rodriguez and Alex Oliveira. Split decision to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Tools: Dalby has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I’m normally not a fan of MMA math, but in this fight, it’s useful to show how solid a lock Dalby is to upset Means. Means fought Daniel Rodriguez. Rodriguez edged him out in the striking before knocking Means out. Dalby fought Rodriguez in his last fight and comfortably out struck Rodriguez. So much so, that part of me wants to grade Dalby’s striking a 70, but that’s too big a jump. Part of it could be Rodriguez’s striking maybe being closer to a 60. Either way, I love Dalby at anything + money. I have no clue why he’s the underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Dalby by decision.
Renato Moicano vs Jai Herbert
- Renato Moicano
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-1 at 155 lbs. 6-4 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Calvin Kattar. Split decision over Jeremy Stephens.
- Tools: Moicano has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Tools: Herbert has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Moicano used an interesting strategy in his last fight with Rafael Fiziev by choosing to not focus on his grappling. And he did okay in the striking with Fiziev, but Fiziev has a big power advantage and knocked him out. The same thing could happen here with Herbert. But Moicano’s team had to watch Herbert’s UFC debut and how Francisco Trinaldo was able to take him down multiple times. Moicano’s grappling is better than Trinaldo’s and taking Herbert down is a very likely way to win. I’m picking Moicano, but a little reluctantly because if he chooses to trade strikes, he could get knocked out again.
Chris’ Pick: Moicano by decision.
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Danilo Marques
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlos Ulberg.
- Tools: Nzechukwu has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Danilo Marques
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Mike Rodriguez.
- Tools: Marques has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
So 2 fights into his UFC career, we’ve learned that Marques is really really good, based off of how he dominated a quality opponent in Mike Rodriguez. But this is such an interesting fight from a gambling stand point. The odds makers did the right thing. They priced Marques as a slight favorite. But the public money has come in on Nzechukwu. And that’s where the inefficiency is. The public remembers or looks up the end result of Nzechukwu’s last fight vs Carlos Ulberg. The result was Nzechukwu knocking out Ulberg in the 2nd round. But the result doesn’t tell the whole story. The actual story of that fight was how Ulberg dominated early and gassed out going for the finish. Possibly an adrenaline dump due to his first official UFC fight. Nzechukwu proved he’s durable, yes. But the issue here is that Marques has legit near plus 65 grappling and he’s going to be able to take Nzechukwu down and control him the same way he did to Rodriguez. Marques is my favorite pick on the card.
Chris’ Pick: Marques by 2nd round submission.
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Michel Prazares
- Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Tools: Rakhmonov has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Michel Prazares
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Bartosz Fabinski. Beat Gilbert Burns in 2016. Split decision over Zak Cummings.
- Tools: Prazares has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Prazares has been one of the more under rated fighters in the UFC for years, but he never really got traction due to the boring, wrestling heavy approach he uses and that he doesn’t fight that often. But that was at 155 lbs. He’s moved up to 170 lbs. He’s 39 years old. He’s not the same fighter and he’ll fail to get Rakhmonov down. On the feet, Rakhmonov has a huge power advantage. Rakhmonov has title contender upside and I have no problem with a -300 price.
Chris’ Pick: Rakhmonov by 1st round knockout.
Warlley Alves vs Jeremiah Wells
- Warlley Alves
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Bryan Barberena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mounir Lazzez. Submitted Colby Covington in 2015.
- Tools: Alves has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Wells has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Wells looks like he’s a quality prospect. He’s got his 60 wrestling. He’s supposed to have hands too, but I’m not sold yet. Just a couple years ago, he lost to a well rounded 7-2 fighter because he couldn’t take him down and had to trade strikes with him. Meanwhile with Alves, his striking is taking a step forward. He came into the UFC as a grappler, but his last 3 wins have all come by KO. And his loss to Randy Brown, Alves was doing great until he got too confidence in Brown’s guard. Got caught with a triangle. Alves at anything near -250 is solid value. I think he should be priced more in the -325 range.
Chris’ Pick: Alves by 2nd round knockout.
Ike Villanueva vs Marcin Prachnio
- Ike Villanueva
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 18-11
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker.
- Tools: Villanueva has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
- Marcin Prachnio
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Beat Khalil Rountree.
- Tools: Prachnio has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Prachnio is one of these rare fighters that starts his career 0-3 in the UFC. Takes on a quality opponent in Khalil Rountree. And looks spectactular in upsetting Rountree! Now, part of me wants to discount the win just a tiny bit because Rountree originally retired. Hadn’t fought in a couple years. And he definitely didn’t look the same. I had Rountree with 65 striking originally. My best educated guess as to where the striking skills are now is downgrading Rountree to a 55 and upgrading Prachnio to a 65. He was just so good. Even his cardio was on point. Villanueva looked really good in his last fight too. Which is why Prachnio can be found near -225. But guys, Villanueva looked good against a grappling specialist with a 1-3 UFC record. Let’s say I’m wrong and Villanueva’s striking is more like a 55. Prachnio is still going to out strike him by a wide margin. I especially see Prachnio having a cardio advantage. I’m not 100% sure that Prachnio’s wrestling is a 55, but it won’t matter in this fight as Villanueva’s not going to try and take him down.
Chris’ Pick: Prachnio by 1st round knockout.
Julia Avila vs Julija Stoliarenko
- Julia Avila
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
- Tools: Avila has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-4-2
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Tools: Stoliarenko has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Avila is an elite prospect. Likely title contender. But she got exposed a bit in her last fight. She fought Sijara Eubanks and Eubanks was able to take Avila down and control her. So this fight against Stoliarenko is a good test to see if she’s improved her wrestling. And Stoliarenko has sneaky underdog appeal. It’s possible her grappling is slightly better than 55. That said, I think the fight will be on the feet long enough for Avila to eventually catch her.
Chris’ Pick: Avila by 2nd round knockout.
Charles Rosa vs Justin Jaynes
- Charles Rosa
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Darrick Minner. Split decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
- Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Split decision over Kevin Aguilar.
- Tools: Rosa has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Justin Jaynes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-7
- UFC Record: 1-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frank Camacho.
- Tools: Jaynes has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
There’s no question that Darrick Minner has taken a huge step forward and is not the same fighter he used to be. But I can’t deny that Rosa has also taken a step back. 2 of his last 3 fights, he’s been dominated on the ground and I have to down grade his grappling to a 55. This is a tricky fight to pick because of the direction judging has started to go in. Normally I’d say Rosa should win because the striking will be close to even but Rosa will mix in some take downs and that should be the difference. Except take downs aren’t really counting for anything anymore, unless “damage” is done. So I’m going to reluctantly pick Jaynes because he should have a power advantage and land the more damaging shots.
Chris’ Pick: Jaynes by split decision.
Damir Hadzovic vs Yancy Medeiros
- Damir Hadzovic
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Patrick.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Nick Hein.
- Tools: Hadzovic has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
- Yancy Medeiros
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-5 at 155 lbs. 6-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Lost to Lando Vannata abd Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira. Split decision over John Makdessi.
- Tools: Medeiros has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
I don’t feel we saw the best of Medeiros in his last fight. Lando Vannata is very tricky defensively. Besides that loss, Medeiros is losing to guys like Gregor Gillespie, Donald Cerrone (when he was more in his prime). Medeiros is the same guy that’s knocked out Oliveira and Erick Silva. He’s still only 33 years old and was starting to come into his own until he lost the last 3 in a row. And Hadzovic has to be his least talented opponent in years. Hadzovic in contrast lost to Patrick. Barely beat Hein. He’s well rounded but average across the board. I’m not saying Medeiros is a lock, but he should win and is + money in most books.
Chris’ Pick: Medeiros by decision