Dern vs Rodriguez, Brown vs Gooden, Elliott vs Nicolau Fight Picks – October 9, 2021

MacKenzie Dern vs Marina Rodriguez

  • Mackenzie Dern
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Virna Jandiroba. Split decision over Ashley Yoder.
  • Tools: Dern has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has plus grappling (70).
  • Marina Rodriguez
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 5-1-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
  • Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Amanda Ribas. Beat Michelle Waterson and Tecia Torres.
  • Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking (70) and above average wrestling (60).

This fight could be really similar to Rodriguez’s fight with Ribas. And I was surprised by that fight. And not because Rodriguez knocked Ribas out in the 2nd. I was surprised Ribas took Rodriguez down in the 1st and Rodriguez wasn’t able to get back up until the round was over. If that same scenario plays out with Dern, Rodriguez is in big trouble because Dern is more dangerous on the ground than Ribas.

Chris’ Pick: Dern by 1st round submission.


Randy Brown vs Jared Gooden

  • Randy Brown
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-4
  • Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Mickey Gall. 
  • Tools: Brown has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60)
  • Jared Gooden
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 18-6
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Niklas Stolze. Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
  • Tools: Gooden has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).

Despite a quick 1 minute knockout over Niklas Stolze, I’m still not sold on Gooden. His striking is absolutely not a 60. I actually feel a 55 striking grade is generous. And even if his wrestling is really a 55, he’s not taking Brown down. On the feet, it’s not close. Pretty big mismatch in my opinion. Guy with a 1-2 UFC record like Gooden going against Brown who has 11 UFC fights and a 7-4 record. Sheesh. And Brown’s only a -250 favorite? Get out of here. I’d have Brown priced at -450.

Chris’ Pick: Brown by 1st round knockout.


Tim Elliott vs Matheus Nicolau

  • Tim Elliott
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 10-9
  • Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
  • Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Mark de la Rosa. Beat Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
  • Tools: Elliott has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
  • Matheus Nicolau
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 16-2
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat Louis Smolka and a 7-1 grappler. Split decisions over Manel Kape and John Moraga.
  • Tools: Nicolau has near plus striking (65). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).

Just like Brandon Moreno, Nicolau is a guy the UFC never should have cut. But was cut because they thought they were getting rid of the 125 lb division. Good thing they didn’t. Nicolau actually has a 4-1 UFC record. He’s no newbie. And he’s proven. With Tim Elliott, we know what we’re getting. Nicolau will have a really big power advantage. And going back to a lot of people thinking Nicolau is new to the UFC, he’s only a -170 favorite. Solid value. I think Nicolau should be around -300.

Chris’ PIck: Nicolau by 2nd round knockout.


Mariya Agapova vs Sabina Mazo

  • Mariya Agapova
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Hannah Cifers. Knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Tools: Agapova has near plus striking (65). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
  • Sabina Mazo
  • Age: 24
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Lost to Maryna Moroz.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Justine Kish. Beat an 8-0 grappler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision win over JJ Aldrich.
  • Tools: Mazo has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Despite the embarrassment of being upset by Shana Dobson, Agapova’s skills remain intact. She gassed out going for the finish in the 1st round. It happens. She should have the better striking against Mazo and even if it’s closer to even, I know for sure, she has more power. Agapova just has to make sure she doesn’t gas out again as I know that Mazo has better cardio.

Chris’ Pick: Agapova by 2nd round knockout.


Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn

  • Phil Hawes
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
  • Tools: Hawes has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
  • Deron Winn
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Stewart.
  • Beat Wins: Beat Antonio Arroyo and a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
  • Tools: Winn has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60).

Horrible matchup for Winn, being a mostly one dimensional wrestler. Hawes’ striking has looked great lately, but before the evolution in his hands, he was known as a wrestler. Winn isn’t used to being forced to strike. I don’t see this going well for him.

Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.


Chris Guttierez vs Felipe Colares

  • Chris Gutierrez
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-1-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Morales. Beat Andre Ewell. Split decision win over Geraldo de Freitas.
  • Tools: Guttierez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Felipe Colares
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Beat Luke Sanders. Split decision over Domingo Pilarte.
  • Tools: Colares has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

I think this fight will be pretty similar to how Colares vs Montel Jackson went. Colares was forced to stand and trade and it didn’t go well for him. At this point, we know what to expect from Gutierrez. Based on how his wrestling did against Ewell, I’ve upgraded it to a 55, which should be good enough to stuff take downs.

Chris’ Pick: Guttierez by 2nd round knockout.


Alexander Romanov vs Jared Vanderaa

  • Alexander Romanov
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 14-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
  • Tools: Romanov has striking that’s a little above average (55) and near plus grappling (65).
  • Jared Vanderaa
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-5
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
  • Tools: Vanderaa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

Vanderaa really amazed me in his last fight. His striking got way, way better. Out struck Tafa, by a lot. But that’s not going to matter too much in this fight with Romanov having every ability of taking him down, just like Serghei Spivac took Vanderaa down. Romanov’s wrestling is at least a 65. Might be a 70. He’s going to take Vanderaa down.

Chris’ Pick: Romanov by 2nd round submission.


Charles Rosa vs Damon Jackson

  • Charles Rosa
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 5-5
  • Key Losses: Lost to Darrick Minner. Split decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in 2015.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Manny Bermudez. Split decisions over Kevin Aguilar and Justin Jaynes.
  • Tools: Rosa has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
  • Damon Jackson
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 18-4
  • UFC Record: 1-2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Knocked out a 12-3 grappler.
  • Tools: Jackson has average striking (50). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

Close fight. Jackson’s grappling might be better than Rosa’s. But I see Rosa being able to get up. Rosa should have better striking. Jackson has more KO power. Rosa is most likely to win, Rosa at +135 is nice, but I still wouldn’t go anywhere near this fight betting wise.

Chris’ Pick: Rosa by split decision.


Lupita Godinez vs Silvana Juarez

  • Lupita Godinez
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jessica Penne.
  • Key Wins: Majority decision over Vanessa Demopoulos.
  • Tools: Godinez has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
  • Silvana Juarez
  • Age: 36
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker.
  • Tools: Juarez has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

Juarez goes from fighting on The Contender to an actual UFC card on a few days notice. And this is a really tough match up for her. She fought Ariane Lipski in 2018. Went 5 rounds with her. Close fight. It’s possible her striking could be more like a 60. But I’m pretty sure her wrestling is just a 50, which means Godinez should be able to get take downs and grind out the win.

Chris’ Pick: Godinez by decision.


Steve Garcia vs Charlie Ontiveros

  • Steve Garcia
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 11-4
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Aalon Cruz. Split decision loss to a 5-0 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over a 5-0 grappler.
  • Tools: Garcia has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50). 
  • Charlie Ontiveros
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 11-7
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-3 striker and a well rounded 1-0 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Split decision over a 5-0 striker.
  • Tools: Ontiveros has fringe average striking (45) and fringe average wrestling (45).

Interesting as Ontiveros made his UFC debut on short notice against middleweight contender Kevin Holland. Now he moves down to lightweight to take on Garcia. So obviously Ontiveros should look better here at his natural weight, but let’s not forget that even before the Holland loss, he had an 11-6 pro record. It’s possible Garcia could have 55 striking. He should win on the feet, but I’d be a little leery of the -300 Garcia is priced at.

Chris’ Pick: Garcia by 1st round knockout.

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