Tsarukyan vs Gamrot, Magny vs Rakhmonov, Parisian vs Baudot Fight Picks - June 25, 2022 - MMA Fight Picks By Chris Schweppe

Armen Tsarukyan vs Mateusz Gamrot

Arman Tsarukyan
Age: 25
UFC Record: 5-1
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Mateusz Gamrot
Age: 31
Pro Record: 20-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)
Grappling: near plus (65)

The night Tsarukyan fought Islam Makhachev back in 2019 was unforgettable. Even then, people who followed the sport closely recognized that Makhachev would likely one day fight for the title. Makhachev’s opponent gets hurt and in steps Tsarukyan, taking the fight on a week’s notice. And aside from Makhachev’s lone loss, getting knocked out by Adriano Martins, Tsarukyan gave Mahachev his toughest fight. With Tsarukyan only 22 years old. Now, Tsarukyan’s fight with Giagos caused a bit of concern. The way Giagos took Tsarukyan down. But that was a quick fight. Tsarukyan ended up knocking him out pretty quick after that. I was having a bit of doubt over whether Tsarukyan’s wrestling was a 70 grade. Then came Tsarukyan’s last fight with fellow rising contender Alvarez. And Tsarukayn took his wrestling game to another level. I know for a fact that Alvarez has 65 grappling. So for Tsarukyan to take him down and dominate was special and I’m upgrading his wrestling to a 75. I’m also confident Gamrot has 70 wrestling with the way that he grappled with Ferreira. But I’m not sure his striking is a 65. It could be a 60. I see Tsarukyan as being better everywhere. Most of the fight will probably be on the feet. Tsarukyan will probably have better cardio. Probably has a better chance to get a KO. As good as Gamrot is, I don’t see him being a threat anywhere.

Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Tsarukyan -325

Neil Magny vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Neil Magny
Age: 34
UFC Record: 22-8
Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision over Max Griffin.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: plus (70)

Shavkat Rakhmonov
Age: 27
Pro Record: 15-0
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Michel Prazares, Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Magny is one of the rare types of fighters where his cardio makes his tools appear better than they are. His last fight with the vastly improved Griffin really showed that. Griffin actually got the better of Magny in the first half of the fight. Did more damage on the feet. Stuffed take downs. But Magny got him tired and then started to take over in the second half. Striking was still close to even, but Magny was able to get a take down and control him in the clinch. That’s why it’s hard to pick Magny fights because the cardio of both fighters is such a huge piece of the puzzle. Cardio is hard to quantify because one fighter like Magny might have a “bigger gas tank”, but how efficient a fighter is in using their cardio throughout the fight is just as important. Even Magny is capable of “emptying the tank” if he’s not careful. All that said, he takes on a very good prospect in Rakhmonov. And yes, the knockout over Harris looked impressive. But if you watched the fight, you’d see Shavkat’s wrestling is only a 65. He tried to take Harris down and wasn’t able to. And up until the KO, the striking was close to equal. This is a hard fight to pick. Griffin came close to knocking Magny out. Rakhmonov will also have a big power advantage. But I don’t think Rakhmonov has fought anyone with the cardio Magny has. Odds aren’t out yet. I think with the hype Rakhmonov has and how under rated Magny tends to be, I expect Shavkat to be a decent size favorite. But I think both should be price at -110. I think there will be a lot of value on Magny as I see him using his wrestling and cardio to take over in the later stages and eke out a close fight.

Chris’ Pick: Magny by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Pick em

Josh Parisian vs Alan Baudot

Josh Parisian
Age: 32
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a 24-8 striker. Split decision over Roque Martinez.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: average (50)

Alan Baudot
Age: 34
Pro Record: 8-3
UFC Record: 0-2
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Parisian’s development has plateaued a bit. He’s now 5 fights into his UFC career and his tools are largely the same. His wrestling might even be a 45 with how Don’tale Mayes dominated him with his wrestling accruing 11 minutes of control in their fight. Speaking of wrestling, I think Baudot’s wrestling could be more like a 60. He does well in the beginning of fights. But his main problem is that he doesn’t manage his energy well. He tends to gas out as the fight goes on so I have it as a 55 for now. But with him facing Parisian, this will most likely be a stand up fight, unless Baudot maybe goes for take downs early like Mayes did. And Baudot has some good margin on the feet. Even if Parisian shows up with improved 60 striking, Baudot should still be better there.

Chris’ Pick: Baudot by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Baudot -400

Thiago Moises vs Christos Giagos

Thiago Moises
Age: 26
UFC Record: 6-3
Key Wins: Knocked out Jamall Emmers. Submitted Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Christos Giagos
Age: 32
UFC Record: 4-5
Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic and a 10-2 striker.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Giagos might have gotten starched last time out by Armen Tsarukyan, but I went back to a few of his previous fights and have to give him more credit. Particularly his 2019 fight with Drakkar Klose where the wrestling was equal and Giagos out landed Klose 69 to 39. It was a little harder to gauge Giagos’ skills from his fights with Carlton Minus and Sean Soriano because I apparently didn’t have a good handle on where their tools are at, but I know how good Klose is. Meanwhile with Moises, I have to downgrade his striking to a 60 with how Joel Alvarez out struck him 36 to 11. I upgraded Alvarez’s striking to a 70, but there’s no way it’s a 75. Moises best path to win here is to get this fight on the ground. Giagos is more of a wrestler than a grappler and he could legitimately finish the fight there. Otherwise, the stand up will be really close and who knows what the judges will do with it.

Chris’ Pick: Moises by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Moises -150

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Nathan Maness

Umar Nurmagomedov
Age: 26
Pro Record: 14-0
UFC Record: 2-0
Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher and Sergey Morozov. Beat a 12-0-1 grappler and a 5-0 grappler.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: plus (70)

Nathan Maness
Age: 30
Pro Record: 14-1
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders. Knocked Tony Gravely, out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Wrestling: above average (60)

I thought Kelleher was doing okay. He came into the Nurmagomedov fight as a +650 underdog. Umar was a -1000 favorite. I thought that was crazy. Kelleher was defending take downs. Until Nurmagomedov got close, put a butterfly hook in to try to take the back, and just like that, he got his arm underneath Kelleher’s neck and sunk in a rear naked choke. Game over. It was quick. I thought, those things happen sometimes. Kelleher made a mistake. Then I saw the striking totals. Granted, the fight only lasted about 3 minutes. But Umar out struck Kelleher 13 to 1. Kelleher threw 18 strikes and only landed 1. Yikes. So, it’s possible Nurmagomedov has 70 striking. And it’s possible his grappling could be a 75. Only two fights into his UFC career and he looks like he could potentially become champion at 135 lbs. Maness also has a shiny pro record. 14-1. He’s also 3-0 in his UFC career so far. Looks like a decent opponent. But let’s look at his skills. Look at Maness’ UFC debut against 65 grappler Johnny Munoz. I still think Munoz was robbed and won that fight. Munoz had 9 minutes and 42 seconds of top control and clinch control vs only 1 minute 29 seconds for Maness. Maness showed his wrestling was only a 60. And then in Maness’ last fight, he took on Gravely and yes, Maness did knock him out. But Maness doesn’t normally do that. He has 14 pro wins. Only 5 knockouts. But. I will say this. Maness does have 3 KO wins in his last 6 fights. Maybe he’s unlocking more power. We’ll see. But I genuinely think Kelleher was a tougher opponent for Nurmagomedov than Maness. I think Umar is better everywhere and with margin.

Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by 1st round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Nurmagomedov -750

Rodolfo Vieira vs Chris Curtis

Rodolfo Vieira
Age: 32
Pro Record: 8-1
UFC Record: 3-1
Key Wins: Submitted Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris Curtis
Age: 34
Pro Record: 28-8
UFC Record: 3-0
Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 12-6 striker.
Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen, Phil Hawes, a well rounded 13-3 fighter. a 10-1 striker, an 8-2 striker and an 18-5 wrestler. Beat a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 18-4 fighter. Majority decision win over an 11-4 striker.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

What I’m noticing is that most fighters training with Sean Strickland’s camp are showing massive improvement. Curtis is one of the brightest examples. So okay, his knockout over Hawes could’ve been a fluke. Hawes was badly out striking Curtis in their fight until Curtis landed the KO. But I can’t deny him after what he did to Allen. Allen tried 3 times to take Curtis down. He couldn’t. Striking was close to equal. Curtis is legit with well rounded 65 tools. Vieira is one of the most dangerous grapplers in the UFC, but the problem is that he has one of the smallest gas tanks. He also has no confidence in it improving. Yes, he choked out Stoltzfus last time out. That’s great. But Vieira didn’t start grappling until the 3rd and final round, because he didn’t want to gas out. That strategy won’t fly with Curtis who’s got way better cardio and the wrestling to stuff the take down attempts. Curtis is also so much better on the feet. I like Curtis here big.

Chris’ Pick: Curtis by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Curtis -350

Carlos Ulberg vs Tafon Nchukwi

Carlos Ulberg
Age: 31
Pro Record: 4-1
UFC Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a 5-1 grappler.
Striking: plus (70)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Tafon Nchukwi
Age: 27
Pro Record: 6-2
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker. Beat Mike Rodriguez and Jamie Pickett.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: near plus (65)
Wrestling: above average (60)

I was blown away by the improvements Ulberg made in the Fabio Cherant fight. I had just upgraded Cherant’s striking to a 60 because his striking with William Knight was close to equal. It’s probably more like a 55 because Ulberg out struck Cherant 66 to 13. Total domination to the point that I’m doing something rare. Ulberg is only 3 fights into his UFC career, but I’m upgrading his striking tool to a 70, albeit with 60 power. Nchukwi looked like he was on his way to beating Azamat Murzakanov. Nchukwi had all the momentum after the 2nd round. Out struck Murzakanov 22 to 10. But then Murzakanov KO’ed him out of nowhere. Odds closed with Murzakanov as a -190 favorite. I saw the fight as closer to a pick em and I think I was right. Nchukwi actually landed more strikes and he was able to stuff all of Murzakanov’s take down attempts. All that said, this fight will come down to Ulberg’s technique vs Nchukwi’s power. I also think Ulberg’s got the better cardio.

Chris’ Pick: Ulberg by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ulberg -135

TJ Brown vs Nuerdanbieke Shayilan

TJ Brown
Age: 31
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by 11-17 journeyman and a 3-6 striker.
Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker and an 8-1 striker. Split decision over Kai Kamaka.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
Age: 28
Pro Record: 18-7
UFC Record: 1-1
Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Sean Soriano.
Striking: average (50)
Power: below average (40)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

I recently rewatched Nuerdanbieke’s fight with Josh Culibao and in hindsight, I don’t think I gave his wrestling enough credit. I know for certain that Culibao’s wrestling is a 55 and Nuerdanbieke got the better of it with 6 minutes of control in the fight. And yes, Brown’s last opponent Charles Rosa did take the fight on only 3 days notice, but Brown’s display of dominance was still impressive. I’m certain Rosa has 55 grappling. Supremely confident. And even from the very 1st round when Rosa was at his freshest, Brown was able to get the take down and top control. I also saw improvement in Brown’s striking. I had Rosa’s at a 60 and striking was equal in 1st round. Then Brown began to out strike Rosa as he started to gas out. So yes, Rosa gassing out was definitely a factor, but Brown also showed up as a better version.

Chris’ Pick: Brown by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Brown -300

Raulian Paiva vs Sergey Morozov

Raulian Paiva
Age: 26
UFC Record: 1-1 at 135 lbs. 4-3 overall.
Key Losses: Split decision to Kai Kara-France.
Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 grappler. Beat Zhalgas Zhumagulov and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision wins over a 17-4 grappler and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
Striking: near plus (65)
Power: a little above average (55)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Sergey Morozov
Age: 32
Pro Record: 17-6
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and a 5-0-1 wrestler. Beat Khalid Taha, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, an 11-3 wrestler and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Wrestling: near plus (65)

Paiva had his big shot in the spotlight with Sean O’Malley. And got knocked out in the 1st round. But that result doesn’t mean that his skills aren’t real. They’re still there. He proved it against Kyler Phillips as their striking exchanges were close to equal. O’Malley just had too big of a power advantage. Despite almost knocking Silva de Andrade out, I still have Morozov’s power as a 50. I’m not sure why Morozov was a -200 favorite going in. I thought Silva de Andrade had better striking and that seemed to be the case starting in the 2nd round. Paiva has proven 65 striking. And regardless of what the odds were, I’m confident Morozov’s striking is just a 60. Because I know Taha has 60 striking and the strikes were close to equal in that fight.

Chris’ Pick: Paiva by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Paiva -225

Cody Durden vs JP Buys

Cody Durden
Age: 31
Pro Record: 12-4-1
UFC Record: 1-2-1
Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Qileng Aori.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: above average (60)
Grappling: average (50)

JP Buys
Age: 26
Pro Record: 9-4
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 wrestler.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Grappling: above average (60)

Buys looked like a completely different fighter last time out with Montel Jackson. Buys went in as a +525 underdog. But showed vast improvement in his debut at 135 lbs. And Jackson did win the fight, did take over in the second half, but I think that just had to do with Buys not being efficient in managing his energy. He went too hard in the first half. So I think Jackson winning had more to do with Buys just gassing out. It’s possible Buys’ grappling could be a 65 and that’s why I’m picking him. Durden got submitted in a guillotine in less than 1 minute in his last fight, but that doesn’t change anything on what his tools are. Close fight, I have both almost graded identical, but I think Buys is more likely to show up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Buys by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Buys -125

Brian Kelleher vs Mario Bautista

Brian Kelleher
Age: 35
UFC Record: 8-6
Key Losses: Knocked out Damian Stasiak.
Key Wins: Knocked out Hunter Azure. Submitted Iuri Alcantara. Beat Kevin Croom, Domingo Pilarte and Julio Arce twice. Once by submission, the other decision.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: above average (60)
Wrestling: near plus (65)
Grappling: above average (60)

Mario Bautista
Age: 28
UFC Record: 3-2
Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: a little above average (55)
Grappling: above average (60)

Late addition to the card. Both guys fighting on 3 weeks notice. And yes, Kelleher got finished in 3 minutes in his last fight. But it was against a possible future champion in Umar Nurmagomedov. But that result doesn’t change the fact that Kelleher has been getting better. I’m confident with where I’ve graded his tools. And Bautista is a solid prospect too. Can’t take too much out of his last fight because I’m not super confident with where Jay Perrin’s skills are at, especially since he took the fight on a few days notice. But Bautista’s striking and wrestling with Trevin Jones were about equal up until Bautista got knocked out. I think Kelleher is better everywhere and that if Jones could knock Bautista out, Kelleher should be able to do the same.

Chris’ Pick: Kelleher by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Kelleher -250

Jinh Yu Frey vs Vanessa Demopoulos

Jinh Yu Frey
Age: 36
Pro/Amateur Record: 14-8
UFC Record: 2-2
Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision loss to Jodie Esquibel.
Key Wins: Beat Ashley Yoder, Gloria de Paula, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
Striking: a little above average (55)
Power: fringe average (45)
Wrestling: above average (60)

Vanessa Demopoulos
Age: 33
Pro Record: 7-4
UFC Record: 1-2
Key Wins: Submitted Silvana Juarez and Sam Hughes. Knocked out a 5-2 striker.
Striking: above average (60)
Power: average (50)
Grappling: a little above average (55)

Despite the spectacular 1st round submission Demopoulos got, I don’t think we learned more about her. Silvana Juarez landed a power shot, knocked Demopoulos down, got a bit over zealous in the guard and Demopoulos caught her in the arm bar. But I still believe her striking is a 60 based on her fight before that with JJ Aldrich and the fact that the striking was close to equal. Frey pulled off a mild upset in beating Yoder. Line closed with Yoder as a -160 favorite. Frey came in with improved 60 wrestling but the striking was close to equal. This is one of those fights where you really can’t predict what the judges do. I see Frey getting some take downs. But I also see Demopoulos getting back up and landing more on the feet. So it’ll really just depend on what the judges like more.

Chris’ Pick: Demopoulos by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Demopoulos -125

Tsarukyan vs Gamrot, Magny vs Rakhmonov, Parisian vs Baudot Fight Picks – June 25, 2022