
Calvin Kattar vs Josh Emmett
- Calvin Kattar
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Giga Chikadze and Dan Ige.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-1 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Dan Ige and Shane Burgos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Emmett is a power guy, lots of muscle, and has never gone 5 rounds. Yes, Emmett went 3 rounds with Ige. Striking was close to equal. High pace. But that was only 3 rounds. Chikadze had never fought 5 rounds also and started to fade in the 4th. Kattar started to take over then. But I have to apologize to Chikadze. He did have 75 striking after all. He should’ve been favored to beat Kattar and was. But the reason Kattar pulled the upset is because he showed up an improved version. His striking went from a 70 to a 75. And that edge in striking, edge in cardio, and edge in wrestling is why I’ll be picking Kattar. Yes, Emmett has dangerous KO power, but I think Chikadze at this point was a much bigger threat and Kattar showed he was able to weather the storm.
Chris’ Pick: Kattar by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kattar -250
Kevin Holland vs Tim Means
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 170 lbs. 10-4 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Tim Means
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 12-7 at 170 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Means is extremely similar to Holland’s last opponent Oliveira. I have them graded almost identically, except Oliveira also has 50 grappling. Oliveira might have rocked Holland, but those types of things happen sometimes. Holland still out struck Oliveira by nearly a 2 to 1 clip. And the grappling was about equal. Now, with the way Means took down Dalby, it’s possible his wrestling could be a 65 now. Means did out grapple Dalby. But Means is 38 years old. It’s way more likely that Dalby’s grappling is worse than I thought vs Means showed up improved. To me, the UFC sees star potential in Holland and want to build him up more slowly so he has time to improve his ground game.
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Holland -325
Joaquin Buckley vs Albert Duraev
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Albert Duraev
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 wrestler, a 5-0 grappler, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 32-5 fighter and a 30-5 grappler. Beat Roman Kopylov, Sergey Khandozhko, and a 13-3 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I don’t think this fight is so much about Buckley’s wrestling. I’m pretty sure he has 60 wrestling. The last time we’ve really seen it was the Kasanganay fight and that was 2 years ago. Reasonable to think he’s gotten better since then. So I think he’ll be able to get back up after the first couple take downs. What I think this fight is really about is how big Buckley’s gas tank is. That’s Duraev’s path to win here. Sean Strickland is one of Duraev’s main training partners. We’ve only seen Duraev in a couple UFC fights so far, but reasonable to think his cardio is substantial. Buckley should have a slight edge in the striking. But I think Duraev is going to make Buckley wrestle and grapple all fight, tire him out, and then take over in the 2nd half. Buckley got really tired in his last fight with Alhassan and it almost costed him.
Chris’ Pick: Duraev by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Duraev -125
Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze
- Damir Ismagulov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 23-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Guram Kutateladze
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 wrestler and a 9-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 22-5 fighter. Split decision over Mateusz Gamrot.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Kutateladze was super impressive in his UFC debut. Took the fight against Mateusz Gamrot on less than a week’s notice. And made it a really close fight where Gamrot edged him out, had slightly better wrestling. Very possible Kutateladze looks even better here with a full camp. He takes on another top notch opponent in Ismagulov who I think has 70 wrestling. He didn’t try to actively take down Moises or control him on the ground, but in the fight, he looked like the superior wrestler, being able to easily defend take downs and sweep. From what I’ve seen so far, Ismagulov should land more, but Kutateladze might have more power.
Chris’ Pick: Ismagulov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ismagulov -150
Julian Marquez vs Gregory Rodrigues
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Gregory Rodrigues
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Dusko Todorovic.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I was blown away by Armen Petrosyan and what he was able to do with Rodrigues. Special prospect. Likely title contender. He out struck Rodrigues by more than a 2 to 1 clip. But that doesn’t take away from Rodrigues’ skills. No way is striking is less than a 60. And based on how Rodrigues was able to take Park down and control him, his wrestling is indeed a 65. It just means Petrosyan is that much better. And with Marquez, he has improved. Well rounded, 60 tools. Really close fight. Rodrigues’ wrestling is just a little better. I have no clue what the judges do with this one.
Chris’ Pick: Rodrigues by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rodrigues -125
Adrian Yanez vs Tony Kelley
- Adrian Yanez
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Domingo Pilarte in 2017 and Miles John in 2018.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Costa, Gustavo Lopez, a 5-2 striker, and a well rounded 11-1 fighter. Submitted a 5-2 grappler. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Tony Kelley
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Kevin Aguilar.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Costa. Submitted a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
You might look at the end of the Kelley vs Costa fight and think wow, maybe Kelley has 65 or 70 wrestling. But the reality of the situation is that Costa ran out of gas. Kelley forced Costa to grapple almost the whole 1st round and it was back and forth, showing that Kelley’s wrestling is more like a 60. But he does have good cardio, and he has improved his striking to a 60 as the striking with Costa was close to equal. I’ve also upgraded Yanez’s wrestling to a 60 based on what Gustavo Lopez has been doing lately. His wrestling is definitely a 60 and I look up the numbers again from the Yanez vs Lopez fight. Lopez only went for 1 take down and got nowhere close. And that will be important in this fight because Yanez will have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Yanez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Yanez -250
Jasmine Jasudavicius vs Natalia Cristina da Silva
- Jasmine Jasudavicius
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 4-0 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Kay Hansen and an 8-2 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Natalia Cristina da Silva
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 12-5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Da Silva’s 12-5-1 record can be a little deceiving. Not that 12-5-1 is a terrible record. But 4 of her 5 losses, plus the draw, came when she was still 19 years old. The 5th loss came when she was 20 years old and fought UFC contender Marina Rodriguez. And what a great fight to watch to really see where da Silva’s tools are at. And I was surprised by how well da Silva did. Rodriguez won, but it wasn’t a wipeout. Since then, she has 6 submission wins in a row, albeit over tomato cans. But the problem for her is that I only see her grappling as a 55 and that won’t be good enough against Jasudavicius who has legit 65 wrestling. How do I know it’s that legit? With the way she fought 60 wrestler Hansen, taking her down a couple times and controlling her for about a third of the fight. Da Silva has potential as a prospect and she has experience with high level fighters, but Jasudavicius’ wrestling is stylistically the worst match up for her.
Chris’ Pick: Jasudavicius by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jasudavicius -175
Jeremiah Wells vs Court McGee
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-2-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Warlley Alves and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Blood Diamond and a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Court McGee
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-9
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Not 100% sure what Wells’ wrestling is. I have it graded as a 60 for now, but the reason I’m not sure is he’s only had 2 UFC fights. The first one, he controlled 60 grappler Alves for good chunks of the round. Then knocked him out in the 2nd. And Wells looked good taking Blood Diamond down and getting the submission. But we don’t really know how good Diamond is on the ground. I hesitate at giving him the 65 grade because he’s so aggressive at the beginning of the fights and carries a lot of muscle. Really good chance he’s not able to keep that pace up and slows down in the second half. And McGee is one of these guys that’s durable and has great cardio. He’s also proved he’s actually improved his striking to a 65 with how he controlled Brahimaj most of their fight. I could totally see McGee having the game plan of survive the 1st round, get Wells tired and take over in the second hafl. To me, that makes it a coin flip fight. But I’m going to pick Wells because he’s going to have such a monster power advantage and do so much damage in the first half.
Chris’ Pick: Wells by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Wells -150
Ricardo Ramos vs Danny Chavez
- Ricardo Ramos
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Split decision win over Kyung Ho Kang.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Danny Chavez
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 11-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Kai Kamaka to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over a 4-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I thought Ramos’ only chance of beating Zubaira Tukhugov was to take him down and get a submission. But amazingly, Ramos had improved his striking by leaps and bounds. I had him with 55 striking going into the fight, but the the striking with 65 striker Tukhugov was close to equal, so I’m doing something I don’t do often, which is upgrade a fighter’s tool by 2 levels to a 65. I see this as a bit of a mismatch. Chavez fought a 60 wrestler in Jared Gordon. Gordon was able to get the better of the wrestling. Showed Chavez’s wrestling is only a 55. And 60 striker Gordon also out landed Chavez. So I see Ramos as being better everywhere, with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Ramos by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Ramos -500
Gloria de Paula vs Maria Oliveira
- Gloria de Paula
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Diana Belbita and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Maria Oliveira
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Coin flip fight. Literally could go either way. I have both graded almost exactly the same. De Paula improved her wrestling to a 55 by being able to control Belbita on the fence for chunks of time throughout the fight. Oliveira fought Tabatha Ricci in her UFC debut but lost because Ricci kept taking her down. This is one of my least confident picks. But I’m going with de Paula because I think there’s a slight chance Oliveira’s striking could be a 55.
Chris’ Pick: de Paula by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: de Paula -110
Cody Stamann vs Eddie Wineland
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Alejandro Perez and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Eddie Wineland
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-9
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Johnny Eduardo. Lost to Bryan Caraway and Alejandro Perez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Grigory Popov.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I see Wineland at the tail end of a great career. He’s lost 4 out of his last 5 fights. He’s been knocked out 2 fights in a row. But luckily for him he takes on Stamann who’s only got 50 power. But even though it’s a safer fight for Wineland, it’s also a safer fight for Stamann. He should be able to win with his 65 wrestling. Should be able to take Wineland down. But just in case Wineland’s wrestling is more like a 60, Stamann will still be able to out strike him. Just has to watch out for Wineland having more power.
Chris’ Pick: Stamann by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Stamann -225
Phil Hawes vs Deron Winn
- Phil Hawes
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Kyle Daukaus. Majority decision over Nassourdine Imavov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Deron Winn
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Stewart.
- Beat Wins: Beat Antonio Arroyo and a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Winn has a high ceiling for his wrestling but he’s a bit one dimensional as shown in the Arroyo fight. And Hawes presents the worst type of matchup. I think Hawes is the better wrestler and has a giant, monster power advantage. And Hawes’ knockout loss to Chris Curtis was more of the fluke variety. Because Hawes was out striking Curtis 46 to 18 up until the point Curtis got the KO. Those happen sometimes. But the 65 striking is 100% for real and his majority decision win over rising contender Imavov has certainly aged well.
Chris’ Pick: Hawes by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Hawes -600
Kyle Daukaus vs Roman Dolidze
- Kyle Daukaus
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Pickett and a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Dolidze meets his match here, grappling wise. He usually likes to take guys down and win that way. He has so far. But he won’t be able to do that here with Daukaus, who’s proved to have better grappling than Dolidze, especially with how all he needed was one take down and a couple minutes to submit Pickett. But I think most of the fight plays out on the feet. Daukaus has better striking, should win. But Dolidze has more power and it is possible he could knock Daukaus out.
Chris’ Pick: Daukaus by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Daukaus -175