Rafael dos Anjos vs Rafael Fiziev
- Rafael dos Anjos
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 16-7 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Ben Henderson. Beat Renato Moicano, Paul Felder, Nate Diaz, and Anthony Pettis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Rafael Fiziev
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano. Beat Bobby Green and Marc Diakiese.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Dos Anjos is really tricky to grade. Let’s look at his last four fights. Took on the 2019 version of Leon Edwards. Not the same Edwards we see today. Striking is close to equal, but Edwards wins because he gets some take downs and the better of the wrestling. Then dos Anjos takes on Michael Chiesa. And Chiesa dominates with his grappling. I have Chiesa’s grappling as a 75, but there’s zero chance it’s an 80. So that means dos Anjo’s wrestling is most likely a 65. Then dos Anjos moves back down to 155 lbs and looks great, right? Well, his first fight back at lightweight, he takes on Felder, who took the fight on 5 days notice. Then beat Moicano, who took the fight on 3 days notice. So it’s impossible to say how much those dos Anjos wins had to do with dos Anjos vs his opponents who kind of came off the couch. Is it possible dos Anjos’ wrestling is back to a 70 at 155 lbs? Absolutely. But he’s 37 years old now. It’s got to be a harder cut for him. I can’t grade his wrestling a 70 until I see more. Fiziev though looks like the real deal. proved his 70 striking against Riddell, Green, and Moicano. I’ve also recently discovered that Moicano does have 70 grappling. He tried to take Fiziev down once and got nowhere close. Riddell also tried to take Fiziev down and had almost zero success. I could be wrong and his wrestling could be a 65, but I’m pretty sure it’s a 70. So the important thing is I don’t think dos Anjos wins the fight with take downs. Most of the fight will be on the feet. I see Fiziev having a big power advantage and should land more.
Chris’ Pick: Fiziev by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fiziev -200
Armen Petrosyan vs Caio Borralho
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Caio Borralho
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat Gadzhi Omargadzhiev, a 10-2 striker, and a 7-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Where you grade Borralho’s wrestling really comes down to where you grade Omargadzhiev’s. The line of that fight closed as a pick em. I had Omargadzhiev’s wrestling as a 60. But Borralho absolutely dominated him on the ground. So of course I’m very impressed, but I had Borralho’s wrestling as a 60 going in, I just don’t think the tool has jumped two levels to a 70. I think the most likely scenario is that Omargadzhiev has 55 wrestling and that’s why the fight was so lopsided. Petrosyan on the other hand, I’m very confident in where I graded him. Rodrigues has 65 wrestling and he took Petrosyan down a couple times, but Armen got right back up and Rodrigues only had a little over 1 minute of control time. And the striking. Wow. I know Rodrigues has 60 striking. And yet, Petrosyan out landed him 127 to 61. His striking tool and power is a 70 for me. He looks like a probable title contender down the line. It’s possible Borralho’s striking could be a 65, but it won’t matter. Petrosyan’s stand up would still be better and will have a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 1st round knockout.
What I think the line should be: Petrosyan -300
Said Nurmagomedov vs Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Said Nurmagomedov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Stamann, Ricardo Ramos, and Mark Striegl. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 16-3 grappler. Split decision over Justin Scoggins.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Douglas Silva de Andrade
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Sergey Morozov. Beat Marlon Vera.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s still hard to get a true handle on just how good Said is. Check this out. He has less than 2 minutes of cage time in the last 2 and a half years. And that came from two fights! Won both in less than a minute. It’s very possible his striking and or wrestling could be 70 tools by now but we just haven’t seen it yet. And it’s possible Siva de Andrade’s striking took a step forward in his last fight with Morozov. But he’s 36 years old and more importantly, he’s 10 fights into his UFC career. So I’m a tad skeptical, but graded his striking a 65 anyway. However, it could very well be just a 60. What I do know is that Said will have a power advantage. Will help him land more damage. And he should land more strikes.
Chris’ Pick: Nurmagomedov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nurmagomedov -150
Jared Vanderaa vs Chase Sherman
- Jared Vanderaa
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a 3-0 fighter. Beat Justin Tafa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Chase Sherman
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Justin Ledet.
- Key Wins: Beat Damian Grabowski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Hard to tell if Vanderaa’s wrestling has gotten better. He was doing well against Alexei Oleinik on the ground, until he wasn’t. But I do know his striking is a 65, based on the razor close fight with Andrei Arlovski. Luckily for Vanderaa, this fight with Sherman should be on the feet. And Vanderaa should have better cardio. You can toss out Sherman’s last fight. He took it on a few days notice against Alexandr Romanov, who’s likely going to get a title shot in the next couple years. Despite the hideous 3-8 UFC record, I’m decently confident with where I graded Sherman. I think he gets it done in the 1st round, having more power, but if he can’t and the fight crosses the halfway point, it’s likely going to be Vanderaa’s to lose.
Chris’ Pick: Sherman by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Sherman -135
Ricky Turcios vs Aiemann Zahabi
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Brady Hiestand and Steve Garcia.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Aiemann Zahabi
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Vince Morales.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Drako Rodriguez. Beat a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
It’s possible that Zahabi has 55 grappling, but I haven’t seen it yet. I was surprised that he knocked Rodriguez out. But he did show up with improved 55 striking. Turcios barely beat Brady Hiestand to win The Ultimate Fighter. I think Hiestand has 60 wrestling. Beat Turcios there a bit, but Turcios had the better striking. This is a risky fight to bet because based on the tools that I’ve seen from both so far, Zahabi is the pick. He has more power that Turcios. But the fighters that win TUF usually improve and develop faster than average. Look at Bryan Battle for example.
Chris’ Pick: Zahabi by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zahabi -125
Jamie Mullarkey vs Michael Johnson
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith, Khama Worthy, and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-11 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Stevie Ray.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Patrick and Dustin Poirier. Beat Edson Barboza
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Johnson’s knockout over Patrick was inspirational. He had lost 4 in a row. But look, Patrick is 38 years old. And the numbers show the striking was close to equal. Ultimately, Johnson having the power advantage is why the line closed with him as a -150 favorite. And he converted. But now he’s taking on a legit potential contender in Mullarkey. Legit 65 striking, 60 wrestling. Better cardio. Bigger lightweight. Even though Mullarkey got knocked out in his last fight, he lost to Jalin Turner. No shame there and striking was close to equal. I don’t see a path to victory here for Johnson.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mullarkey -275
Cody Brundage vs Tresean Gore
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Tresean Gore
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 3-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Gore had a lot of hype coming off TUF. And he can still be really good. But the reality is that he’s only had 4 pro fights. And the fight with Bryan Battle wasn’t close. Battle out struck Gore by more than a 2 to 1 clip. And there’s no way Battle all of a sudden has 65 striking. So I have no choice but to grade Gore’s striking as a 50. And the UFC is rough. Not many easy fights. Brundage affirmed all of his tools in his last fight with Lungiambula. Brundage should be better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Brundage by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Brundage -275
Antonina Shevchenko vs Cortney Casey
- Antonina Shevchenko
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Lucie Pudilova. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Cortney Casey
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Seo Hee Ham. Lost split decisions to JJ Aldrich, Felice Herrig, and Michelle Waterson.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mara Romero Borella and Randa Markos. Beat Liana Jojua and Angela Hill by split decision.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Shevchenko has improved her wrestling, but not enough to beat elite grapplers in Casey O’Neill and Andrea Lee. However, that won’t be a factor here as Casey’s wrestling is only a 60. Likely a stand up fight. I see Casey having more power, but that shouldn’t be too much of a threat being that there’s not that many knockouts in the 125 lb division.
Chris’ Pick: Shevchenko by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Shevchenko -175
David Onama vs Garrett Armfield
- David Onama
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Garrett Armfield
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I picked Onama to beat Gabriel Benitez. I wasn’t surprised by the end result. What I was surprised about was that the striking in the 1st round was close to equal. I have Onama with 65 striking and Benitez with 60 striking. My best educated guess as to why that happened is that Benitez almost always starts fast. I don’t think he would’ve been able to maintain that output. I’m also still decently confident in Onama’s striking being a 65 because of how he fought up a weight class against Mason Jones and the striking was close to equal. Armfield is an interesting prospect. The last loss he had, he took on a well rounded 4-1 fighter, was winning on the feet. But it seemed he started to gas out going into the 2nd round. His opponent took his back, dragged Armfield down and Armfield wasn’t able to escape. Had to tap from a rear naked choke. But since then, Armfield’s wrestling and cardio has improved. He took on a well rounded 6-3 fighter that I think had 50 tools and Armfield was able to take him down and control him most of the fight. Armfield is a good prospect, but the odds of 1) him having the 65 grade striking to match Onama is slim. And 2) the odds of him having the cardio to keep up the pace is also slim. I think the 1st round could be close, but Onama will pull away in the 2nd.
Chris’ Pick: Onama by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Onama -300
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Karl Roberson
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Danilo Marques and Carlos Ulberg.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Karl Roberson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 0-1 at 205 lbs. 5-4 overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Cezar Ferreira.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann. Submitted Darren Stewart and Roman Kopylov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
The good news for Roberson in his last fight is that he improved his striking to a 65. The market already believed that going into the Khalil Rountree fight as the line closed as a pick em. But I only had Roberson’s striking as a 60. And the striking turned out to be close to equal with 65 striker Rountree. But the bad news is that Rountree has way more power and knocked Roberson out. Nzechukwu might have 65 striking. Just like with Rountree vs Roberson, the market had Nzechukwu and Negumereanu as close to a pick em. So basically the market believed both Nzechukwu and Negumereanu had close to equal striking. I disagreed. I had Negumereanu’s striking as a 55. And sure enough Nzechukwu did out strike him. Near equal in the 1st round. But Nzechukwu started to take over in the 2nd round and steamrolled him in the 3rd. So it’s possible Nzechukwu elevated his striking to a 65, but I think it’s more likely Negumereanu had 55 striking all along. Thus I think this is a close fight, but Roberson should win as long as Nzechukwu doesn’t knock him out.
Chris’ Pick: Roberson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Roberson -135
Ronnie Lawrence vs Saidyokub Kakhramonov
- Ronnie Lawrence
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Cachero. Beat Leomana Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Saidyokub Kakharamonov
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Trevin Jones. Knocked out Askar Askar. Beat a 5-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Kakhramonov was supremely impressive in his UFC debut, upsetting Jones on short notice. But the thing that will determine this fight is figuring out where his wrestling is at. Because Jones has 60 wrestling and he was able to control Kakhramonov for good chunks of the fight. And I don’t think it was a cardio issue because when Kakhramonov would break free, he’d look fresh. He looked way more fresh than Jones. I just think as of right now, his wrestling is a 55. And here he takes on an even better wrestler in Lawrence who wins most of his fights with his wrestling and cardio. And unlike Jones, Lawrence won’t gas out. There’s a slight risk in betting on Lawrence because it is possible we see a better version of Kakhramonov on a full camp.
Chris’ Pick: Lawrence by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lawrence -175