Marvin Vettori vs Jared Cannonier
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-4-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Jared Cannonier
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 6-2 at 185 lbs. 9-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Sean Strickland and Kelvin Gastelum.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Both of these guy’s skills have plateaued a bit in their last couple fights. They’re both elite, but haven’t gotten better. Close, coin flip type fight. Cannonier is unique because he’s very muscular and usually those guys lack cardio, but he successfully kept up with Strickland for 5 rounds. I see Vettori trying to take Cannonier down repeatedly and grind him out. I think that’s the slight difference in the fight. Vettori just has to watch out for Cannonier’s power, but Vettori has proven to be durable.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vettori -150
Arman Tsarukyan vs Joaquim Silva
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out Joel Alvarez, Christos Giagos, and a 15-5 striker. Beat Damir Ismagulov, Davi Ramos, Matt Frevola, and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Joaquim SIlva
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Gordon.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
This reminds me of a “stay busy” type of fight that boxers have. Tsarukyan wants to fight, no top ranked guys available, so he takes on whoever. Silva’s only chance is to blitz Tsarukyan and knock him out early, but other than that, Silva has no chance.
Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Tsarukyan -750
Armen Petrosyan vs Christian Leroy Duncan
- Armen Petrosyan
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-0 striker and a 7-0 wrestler and a 4-1 grappler. Beat AJ Dobson. Split decision over Gregory Rodrigues.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Christian Leroy Duncan
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The fight with Todorovic didn’t last long, but it was apparent quickly that I graded Leroy Duncan too low. So although I’m now convinced Duncan is a really good prospect, Petrosyan has proven 70 striking.
Chris’ Pick: Petrosyan by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Petrosyan -200
Pat Sabatini vs Lucas Almeida
- Pat Sabatini
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jamall Emmers, a 12-4 wrestler and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat TJ Laramie, Tucker Lutz, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Lucas Almeida
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Trizano closed as a 2 to 1 favorite in his fight with Almeida but Almeida showed up way, way better than everybody thought. Stuffed take downs. Out struck Trizano 54 to 26. But the problem for Almeida here is that Sabatini’s 70 grade wrestling hasn’t gone anywhere, despite getting knocked out by Damon Jackson. KO’s happen sometimes. I see Sabatini getting the take down quick and not wasting any time.
Chris’ Pick: Sabatini by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Sabatini -250
Manuel Torres vs Nik Motta
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 13-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 14-5 fighter and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Nick Motta
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cameron VanCamp, Joe Solecki, and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 striker and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The market had Torres close as a -135 favorite over Frank Camacho. So it was priced as a close fight. But Torres ran away with it. Out struck Camacho 30 to 14. So Torres is better than we all thought. The striking is at least a 60 for me. Might even be a 65. And he didn’t show it off, but I’m decently confident to project his wrestling being a 55. I was pretty convinced that VanCamp had 60 striking going into the Motta fight. And he likely still does. But the market was higher on Motta than I was and they turned out to be right. Striking between Motta and VanCamp was close to equal up until the KO. And I haven’t see it, but me grading Motta’s wrestling a 60 in baked full of projection. I could be wrong there.
Chris’ Pick: Motta by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Motta -150
Muslim Salikhov vs Nicolas Dalby
- Muslim Salikhov
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Alex Garcia.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho, Nordine Taleb, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Francisco Trinaldo, Laureano Staropoli, and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nicholas Dalby
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 5-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decisions over Warlley Alves and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite Salikhov’s age, he showed up improved in his fight with Fialho. Out struck him 35 to 14, got a take down, had some control. It was impressive. I think Dalby is at his ceiling and will have a hard time with Salikhov’s power.
Chris’ Pick: Salikhov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Salikhov -400
Alessandro Costa vs Jimmy Flick
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler. Split decision over a 12-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jimmy Flick
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-2 fighter and a 12-5 grappler. Lost to a 4-3 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Durden, a 6-0 grappler, a 10-1 grappler and a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Flick vs Charles Johnson went about how I thought it would. Johnson’s wrestling was too good for Flick to implement his grappling game and lost quick because of it. Costa’s loss to Amir Albazi sure has aged well. Costa lost, but wasn’t out of place either. Being that I think Costa is even better than Johnson, I think Costa ends this quick.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Costa -600
Kyung Ho Kang vs Cristian Quinonez
- Kyung Ho Kang
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Beat Batgerel Danaa. Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Cristian Quinonez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalid Taha, a 4-1 striker, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a 9-0 striker, a 6-1 grappler and a 13-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Ho Kang really surprised me in his Batgerel fight, how the striking was close to equal. I still thought Batgerel won the fight, but it was a good showing by Ho Kang nonetheless. I might be going out on a limb grading Quinonez’s striking a 65 but he out landed Taha 15 to 6. Small sample yes, but it doesn’t mean the grade is wrong. We’ll see. Ho Kang’s durability and cardio will definitely put it to the test.
Chris’ Pick: Quinonez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Quinonez -250
Carlos Hernandez vs Denys Bondar
- Carlos Hernandez
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Beat a 3-1 striker. Split decision wins over Victor Altamirano and Daniel Barez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Denys Bondar
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I haven’t seen much of Bondar. His one UFC fight lasted just over a minute and that was a year ago. And before that, his last fight was back in 2020, so 3 years with just a minute of cage time. You’d think he’s going to show up improved. But I think Hernandez is the safer pick. Should land more strikes.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Hernandez -125
Tereza Bleda vs Gabriella Fernandes
- Tereza Bleda
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Gabriella Fernandes
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Not an ideal matchup for Fernandes. She lost her UFC debut getting taken down and controlled by Jasmine Jasudavicius and Bleda is going to do the exact same thing.
Chris’ Pick: Bleda by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bleda -250
Ronnie Lawrence vs Dan Argueta
- Ronnie Lawrence
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vince Cachero. Beat Leomana Martinez.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dan Argueta
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Split decision over a 14-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Not too often you see what Saidyokub Kakhramonov did to Lawrence. Line closed as a pick em. Fight was expected to be close. But instead, the fight was one sided. Yes, Kakhramonov had better, 70 grade wrestling. Took Lawrence down, Lawrence would get back up, Lawrence would be taken down again. Most impressively though is Kakhramonov had the gas tank and cardio to be able to do that all fight. That type of cardio is rare. But does that one fight mean Lawrence sucks now? Does it mean Lawrence lost his skills? No way. He’s still the same guy. It was just Kakhramonov who showed up massivly improved. I’ve only seen Argueta twice in the UFC so far. So not super confident with where I have him graded, but the market did close on him being a -450 favorite over his last opponent Nick Aguirre. Total coin flip fight, could be Lawrence’s cardio and take downs vs Argueta’s better striking.
Chris’ Pick: Lawrence by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lawrence -125
Modestas Bukauskas vs Zac Pauga
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Beat Tyson Pedro.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Zac Pauga
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Jordan Wright, Markus Perez, a 5-2 wrestler, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I don’t think I can take too much out of Pauga’s last fight with Wright. It was Wright’s first fight at 205 lbs, moving up. And same for Pauga who moved down to 205 lbs. It’s possible Pauga’s wrestling is a 65 at light heavyweight based on how he was able to control Wright in the clinch. The market slept on Bukauskas in his return to the UFC but he did exactly what I thought he’d do. He didn’t get the KO but he eked out a close win. I think Bukauskas’ power is going to be too much,
Chris’ Pick: Bukauskas by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Bukauskas -225