
Josh Emmett vs Ilir Topuria
- Josh Emmett
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ricardo Lamas, Michael Johnson and Mirsad Bektic. Beat Dan Ige and Shane Burgos. Split decision over Calvin Kattar.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryce Mitchell, an 8-1 grappler, and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Going into Emmett’s fight with Rodriguez, I had suspicions that his striking could be more of a 65 vs a 70 and that turned out to be the case as Rodriguez out struck him 47 to 13. Mitchell says he fought Topuria while he had the flu. And that could explain Mitchell gassing out so hard in the 2nd round. But in the 1st round, we learned Topuria’s striking has improved to a 70. And his grappling is borderline a 75. Topuria’s a little better everywhere and I expect him to emerge with a title shot after this win.
Chris’ Pick: Topuria by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Topuria -250
Amanda Ribas vs Maycee Barber
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana. Beat Viviane Araujo. Split decision loss to Katlyn Chookagian.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Virna Jandiroba, Randa Markos, and MacKenzie Dern.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Jessica Eye and Montana de la Rosa. Split decision wins over Andrea Lee and Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
The numbers don’t lie. Ribas had a breakthrough performance beating Araujo. Line closed as a pick em. But Ribas elevated both her striking and grappling to 75 grades. Was able to take down and control Araujo for chunks of the fight and out struck her 93 to 45. Not close. And with Barber, she hasn’t looked the same since she teared her ACL against Roxanne Modafferi. Maybe it’s the step up she’s gotten in competition, but regardless of what it is, her development has stalled. She came in as a heavy -275 favorite over Lee and barely squeaked out a split decision win, because the market continues to over rate her. Ribas should win this decisively.
Chris’ Pick: Ribas by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Ribas -450
Justin Tafa vs Austen Lane
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Parker Porter and Juan Adams.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Austen Lane
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-4 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Juan Adams and a 3-1 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
The fight only lasted a minute, so totally a small sample size, but it looks like Tafa has elevated his striking to a 60. And that should be good enough to beat Lane, although it’s not my most confident pick as we haven’t seen much of Lane as well.
Chris’ Pick: Tafa by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Tafa -175
David Onama vs Gabriel Santos
- David Onama
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Nate Landwehr.
- Key Wins: Submitted Garrett Armfield. Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Gabriel Santos
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lerone Murphy.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Elves Brener.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t the only one surprised by Santos. Lerone Murphy closed as a -180 favorite, but Santos out performed the market, lost a close split decision. I really under rated his grappling and bumped it up a couple tiers. Onama is very similar to Murphy and fight could go very similar. Santos showed he was durable. Might have better cardio and I think Santos is more likely to show up imporved as he took the Murphy fight on short notice and this will be his first UFC fight with a full camp.
Chris’ Pick: Santos by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Santos -125
Brendan Allen vs Bruno Silva
- Brendan Allen
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Bruno Silva
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 22-11 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, Jordan Wright, Wellington Turman, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a 5-1 striker, and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Allen upsetting Muniz was a stunner as Muniz came in as a -205 favorite. And although I’m hesitant to give Allen a 75 grade for his grappling, I know for sure that Muniz’s grappling is a 70 at worst. So the fact that Allen was able to out grapple means the tool should be a legit 75 tool. I don’t really see how Silva is able to stop Allen from taking him down. I mean Allen took Muniz down. Fight could be over quick.
Chris’ Pick: Allen by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Allen -450
Neil Magny vs Phil Rowe
- Neil Magny
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 23-10
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hector Lombard. Submitted Daniel Rodriguez. Beat Geoff Neal, Robbie Lawler, Anthony Rocco Martin, Jingliang Li and Tim Means. Split decision over Max Griffin.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Phil Rowe
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Niko Price, Jason Witt, Orion Cosce, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
After seeing Rowe vs Price, surprisingly, Price out struck him 88 to 57, so Rowe barely holds on to a 60 striking grade for me. But the tool very well could be a 55. Magny has been very inconsistent his past few fights, but he should be able to grind Rowe out here. Put Rowe on the fence. Get a couple take downs. Tire him out. He just has to watch out for Rowe’s power.
Crhis’ Pick: Magny by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Magny -200
Randy Brown vs Wellington Turman
- Randy Brown
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Bryan Barbarena. Beat Francisco Trinaldo and Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Wellington Turman
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Misha Cirkunov, a 13-3 striker, and a well rounded 15-4 fighter. Knocked out a 7-1 striker in only his 3rd pro fight. Beat a 12-3 striker. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It’s possible Turman’s wrestling could be a 60 with the way Andre Petroski was able to take him down and control him in the 3rd round of their fight. Or maybe Turman just gassed. Either way, Turman’s main problem here is 2 of his 4 losses have come by KO. Thus, he’s going to have a hard time with Brown’s power whenever the fight is on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Brown by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Brown -175
Mateusz Rebecki vs Loik Radzhabov
- Mateusz Rebecki
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 18-5 fighter, a 8-1 striker, a 12-1 striker, a 12-2 grappler, a 12-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Submitted a 12-2 striker. Beat Nick Fiore and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Loik Radzhabov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 17-4
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Esteban Ribovics and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Radzhabov was really impressive in his UFC debut with Ribovics, especially taking the fight on short notice. His wrestling was 60ish in the fight, but I think with a full camp, we’ll see it as a 65 in this fight. That said, Rebecki should win here because he’s better on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Rebecki by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rebecki -250
Tabatha Ricci vs Gillian Robertson
- Tabatha Ricci
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Penne. Beat Polyana Viana and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 9-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Piera Rodriguez, Mariya Agapova, Priscila Cachoeira, Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Not sure if Robertson focused on improving her grappling or if it’s the size difference with her moving to 115 lbs, but she dominated a quality opponent in Rodriguez, which has wrestling that’s no worse than a 60. On the feet, this would probably be a close fight, but I give Robertson an edge because she’ll be able to take Ricci down or pull guard and work her submission.
Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Robertson -150
Zhalgas Zhumagulov vs Joshua Van
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 1-5
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to Charles Johnson, Jeff Molina, a well rounded 19-7 fighter. and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jerome Rivera. Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joshua Van
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Zhumagulov has had a real run of bad luck in the UFC, losing a couple fights in the eyes of the judges that I thought he won. He should be able to tire Bunes out and really take over the fight in the 2nd half, winning on the feet. From what I’ve seen from Van, his striking is impressive and pretty sure it’s a 60 grade, but not as impressed with the grappling, as it could be as low as a 50. Especially given Van taking this fight on a week’s notice, I expect Zhumagulov to cruise here with take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Zhumagulov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zhumagulov -250
Trevor Peek vs Jose Mariscal
- Trevor Peek
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Erick Gonzalez, Khama Worthy, a 5-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jose Mariscal
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 13-6
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Youssef Zalal. Split decision over Pat Sabatini.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
It looks like Peek’s striking is a 65, but for him to win here, he’s going to need to be more patient and not empty the gas tank. He might’ve lost to Gonzalez if Gonzalez had survived the 1st round, which he almost did. And if Jordan Leavitt and his lack of power can knockout Martinez, I’m pretty sure Peek can do it too. Mariscal has some impressive names that he’s beat on his resume, but he’s also lost Sean Soriano and Steve Garcia too. He steps in on a week’s notice. Will probably blitz Peek and has enough gas to go 1 round. The smart thing for Peek to do is be patient and wait to unload in the 2nd round, but he might not be able to help himself
Chris’ Pick: Peek by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Peek -350
Jack Jenkins vs Jamall Emmers
- Jack Jenkins
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker. Beat Don Shainis.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Jamall Emmers
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 19-6
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 17-14 striker. Knocked out by Julian Erosa.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Cory Sandhagen back in 2017. Split decision win over Alexander Hernandez back in 2013.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Emmers’ upset of Askhabov, who came in as a -150 favorite, had more to do with Askhabov being a tad over rated. I think Jenkins wins though with his leg kicks, heavier power and his ability to mix in some take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jenkins -175
Cody Brundage vs Sedriques Dumas
- Cody Brundage
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Sedriques Dumas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Even though he lost, Dumas’ striking was a little better than I thought, so I’m bumping the tool up to a 60. Brundage steps in for Puna Soriano on short notice. And surprisingly in his last fight with Rodolfo Vieira, it was Brundage who gassed out first. He knocked Vieira down and emptied the tank trying to get the finish. But I’m surprised he gassed out because he wasn’t going all out for long, maybe had an adrenaline dump. Either way, I think taking this fight on a week’s notice, his grappling could be closer to a 55. I like Dumas here to land more and take over in the 2nd half of the fight. Could be close though.
Chris’ Pick: Dumas by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dumas -175