
Sean Strickland vs Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 13-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Nassourdine Imavov, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Abusupiyan Magomedov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 25-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Stolztfus, Jessin Ayari, an 11-2 striker, a well rounded 15-5 fighter, and a 10-3 grappler. Submitted a 12-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Strickland’s striking reached a new level in his last fight with Imavov, I have it now as a 75, although the tool is right on the bubble between a 70 and 75. And part of Strickland’s success on the feet came from his cardio being so much better than Imavov’s, but that being said, Strickland did out land him 175 to 104. Magomedov is one of the bigger mysteries we’ve had in a main event in awhile. This is his 2nd UFC fight and his debut only lasted 19 seconds. Strickland has proved to be durable at 185 lbs to anyone not named Alex Pereira. I just see this being too much, too soon for Magomedov. Even if I’m under rating Magomedov and he’s better than I have him graded, there’s still enough margin for Strickland to win.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Strickland -500
Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson
- Damir Ismagulov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Beat Thiago Moises and Joel Alvarez. Split decision over Guram Kutateladze.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 8-0-1
- Key draws: fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Ismagulov might have lost his last fight, but it was against someone who’s going to fight for the title someday in Arman Tsarukyan. No shame there. However, Ismagulov did show up with improved striking, showing it’s a 70 grade now. He just lost because Tsarukyan has 75 wrestling and was able to take Ismagulov down repeatedly. And I was shocked at how Dawson was able to dominate Madsen. Dawson was only a -200 favorite going in, but clearly he leveled up. Madsen wasn’t able to get back up. And when the fight was on the feet, Dawson out struck him 25 to 11. It’s possible Madsen’s skills started to show regression in that fight so maybe I’m over rating Dawson just a tad. Either way, this is a really close fight that I think will resemble Ismagulov’s fight with Tsarukyan.
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dawson -135
Michael Morales vs Max Griffin
- Michael Morales
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Adam Fugitt and Trevin Giles. Beat a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Max Griffin
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 7-8
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry. Split decision over Tim Means.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
The people who bet on Morales to beat Fugitt were probably in shock. Morales closed as a monster -600 favorite. A line I thought was crazy. I think Morales should’ve been a -175 favorite. And I was right, the fight was much closer than people thought. Striking was close to equal the first 2 rounds. But Morales landed a power shot in the 3rd round that spelled the end for Fugitt. I thought Fugitt came into that fight with 55 striking, so I don’t think Morales is worse than we thought. I thought the fight could be close. Now, some might see this as an easy fight for Morales, but Griffin has been on the best roll of his career, won the last 4 out of 5 fights. And most importantly, I think he currently has better striking than Morales. I like Griffin in an upset.
Chris’ Pick: Griffin by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Griffin -150
Ariane Lipski vs Melissa Gatto
- Ariane Lipski
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Luana Carolina, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 12-4 grappler. Beat JJ Aldrich and Mandy Bohm.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Melissa Gatto
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-1-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Draws: Fought a 9-4-1 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karol Rosa. Knocked out Victoria Leonardo.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It’s been awhile since I’ve seen a fighter make such a massive step forward. The market had Aldrich as a -385 favorite, because everybody thought Aldrich would be able to take Lipski down and control her. But instead, Aldrich attempted 12 take downs and didn’t get a single one. And amazingly, it was Lipski who scored a couple take downs. No way Gatto gets Lipski to the ground to utilize her best tool.
Chris’ Pick: Lipski by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lipski -400
Ismael Bonfim vs Benoit St Denis
- Ismael Bonfim
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 19-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, an 11-4 wrestler, and a 8-3 wrestler. Beat a 27-3 wrestler, a 6-1 grappler, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Benoit St. Denis
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Niklas Stolze, a 4-0 striker, an 8-1 grappler, a 6-2 striker, and a 15-4 striker. Knocked out Gabriel Miranda and a 13-4 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Hard to tell where Miranda’s tools are at, but what I do know for sure is St. Denis seems to have unlocked more power in his hands. And that should give him a chance here against Solecki. I was the low man on Miranda going in, thought his striking was a 50. Maybe it’s a 55. Well, even though St. Denis looked great knocking Miranda out, the strikes landed was close to equal. So it’s possible St. Denis could have 55 striking. Bonfim looks like a potential title contender. I think he’ll be able tot stuff St Denis’ take downs and will be able to win on the feet. And I’m picking decision because of how durable St Denis has proven to be.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bonfim -500
Brunno Ferreira vs Nursulton Ruziboev
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Nursulton Ruziboev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 34-8-2
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
- Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I know for a fact Rodrigues has 65 striking. Ferreira was able to match that before knocking him out. It’s hard to gague Ruziboev’s skills because he blitzes his opponent in almost every fight. He’s got five 1st round finishes in a row. And I watched his last loss. Blitzed the opponent like usual. Got close to finishing him. But the opponent survived and Ruziboev was out of gas. So it’s hard to know what his skills look like outside the 1st round. So yeah, Ruziboev will be dangerous in the 1st round, but I see Ferreira’s striking being on a higher level.
Chris’ Pick: Ferreira by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ferreira -200
Kevin Lee vs Rinat Fakhretdinov
- Kevin Lee
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 0-2 at 170 lbs. 11-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jake Matthews, Edson Barboza, and Gregor Gillespie. Submitted Magomed Mustafaev, Francisco Trinaldo, and Michael Chiesa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Rinat Fakhretdinov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 20-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Beat Andreas Michailidis.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I wasn’t the only one under rating Fakhretdinov coming into his UFC debut. He closed as only a -155 favorite over Battle and then over performed the market by the widest of margins. His wrestling being a 70 is a given. Grading his striking at a 65 uses a bit of projection, but I’m decently confident that’s where it’s at. Lee is one of the more inconsistent fighters around due to his lack of cardio. He makes his UFC return here. And in his last UFC fight with Daniel Rodriguez, he showed regression. But could it be because he was coming off a couple major injuries? Big question mark as far as how he looks here. Is he completely healthy now? Will he ever be the same? Obviously Fakhretdinov is the the safer play here, especially because of the cardio advantage he’ll have. His wrestling doesn’t even need to be that much better, he just needs to tire Lee out and it’s over.
Chris’ Pick: Fakhretdinov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Fakhretdinov -225
Joanderson Brito vs Westin Wilson
- Joanderson Brito
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-3-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Alexander, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 6-0 grappler. Knocked out Andre Fili and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Beat Diego Lopes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Westin Wilson
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-7
- Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Despite Wilson’s record and lack of quality wins, I did watch his last fight and saw 55 grappling from him. Problem for him though is he’s not going to be able to get Brito down and is going to wilt under Brito’s 1st round blitz.
Chris’ Pick: Brito by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Brito -450
Yana Santos vs Karol Rosa
- Yana Santos
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3 at 135 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Ketlen Vieira, Marion Reneau, and Lina Lansberg.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio. Majority decision over Lina Lansberg.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite the loss, Rosa’s striking leveled up in the Norma Dumont fight. And what was really impressive is Rosa did this while fighting up in weight. Either could win this fight. I have both graded identically. But I give Rosa a slight edge for being 5 years younger and more likely to show improvement.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Rosa -125
Guram Kutateladze vs Elves Brenner
- Guram Kutateladze
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damir Ismagulov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 wrestler and a 9-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 22-5 fighter. Split decision over Mateusz Gamrot.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Elves Brenner
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to a 10-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a 5-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Zubaira Tukhugov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Ismagulov’s recent fight with Armen Tsarukyan reaffirmed his tools. He is who we think he is. And it also confirms where Kutateladze’s skills are at. Because they had a really close fight. Striking and grappling were close to equal. Brenner pulled off a massive upset over Tukhugov, cashed as a +450 underdog. He turned out to be way better than everybody thought. But I still like Kutateladze here. I think Brenner will be too tempted to let Kutateladze take him down and play the grappling game off his back. And I see Kutateladze being skilled enough to stay out of trouble and pound away from top position.
Chris’ Pick: Kutateladze by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Kutateladze -135
Ivana Siric Petrovic vs Luana Carolina
- Ivana Siric Petrovic
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Luana Carolina
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Joanne Wood.
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler. Split decision over Poliana Botelho.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Joanne Wood came in as a -190 favorite against Carolina. I thought Wood should’ve been an even bigger favorite because I thought Wood had 70 striking. But the fight ended up being very close with the striking and wrestling being near equal, so I’ve upgraded Carolina’s striking to a 65. I watched Petrovic take on a well rounded 7-1 fighter and the wrestling was really impressive. Petrovic was able to take her opponent down and control her most of the fight. Close fight. Petrovic will likely get some take downs. Probably has the better cardio. Probably has more power. But I think Carolina will land more strikes and that will get her a split decision win.
Chris’ Pick: Carolina by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Carolina -125
Alexandr Romanov vs Blagoi Ivanov
- Alexandr Romanov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chase Sherman. a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Knocked out Jared Vanderaa and a well rounded 20-5 fighter. Split decision over Juan Espino.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Blagoi Ivanov
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Augusto Sakai and Derrick Lewis.
- Key Wins: Beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Ben Rothwell, and Tai Tuivasa
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Not sure what happened to Romanov in his last fight. Maybe he got hit with a strike and was really hurt. He went for one take down attempt on Alexander Volkov. Didn’t get it, and just folded after that. But I’ve seen Romanov in the UFC quite a bit now. And Romanov also came into that fight as a -145 favorite. I think the Volkov fight was an outlier and I haven’t seen enough reason to downgrade where his tools are at. Total toss up fight as I could see Romanov taking Ivanov down early and finishing him there. But if Ivanov escapes the 1st, I could see Romanov gas out and Ivanov take over.
Chris’ Pick: Romanov by 1st round ground and pound TKO.
What I think the odds should be: Romanov -125