Volkanovski vs Rodriguez, Moreno vs Pantoja 3, Whittaker vs du Plessis Fight Picks – UFC 290 – July 8, 2023

Alexander Volkanovski vs Yair Rodriguez

  • Alexander Volkanovski
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 12-0 at 145 lbs. 12-1 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway thrice, and Jose Aldo.
  • Striking: plus plus (80)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Yair Rodriguez
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 12-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Andre Fili. Submitted Josh Emmett. Beat Jeremy Stephens. Split decision over Alex Caceres.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Not only was Volkanovski supremely impressive in the Islam Mahachev fight, I also think he won. As a result, I think Volkanovski is the #1 pound for pound fighter in the world right now. That said, Rodriguez is absolutely a live underdog to win here. Because what’s the one thing Volkanovski hasn’t faced in forever? Someone with elite power. And Makhachev almost knocked Volkanovski out. Maybe it was because it was at 155 lbs. But that’s the main threat here and it’s legitimate. Volkanovski should be favored to win. On the feet, he’ll probably land more. Has the wrestling to take Rodriguez down. Has the cardio to grind out a win if he needs too. But Rodriguez’s power and unpredictability will make him dangerous all fight and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Rodriguez knocked him out.

Chris’ Pick: Volkanovski by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Volkanovski -200


Brandon Moreno vs Alexandre Pantoja 3

  • Brandon Moreno
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 9-3-2
  • Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit. 
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)
  • Alexandre Pantoja
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 9-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno and Manel Kape.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

It’s very possible Pantoja’s grappling has improved to a 75. In his last fight with Perez, Pantoja got the back, got the backpack, sunk the choke in, and it was a wrap. But Perez hadn’t fought in a couple years, had a bunch of his fights cancelled because he’s had the hardest time making 125 lbs. Got submitted quickly by Deiveson Figueiredo in his last fight before Pantoja. Perez is just too much of an unknown quantity for me to feel confident in saying his grappling is a 75 grade now. Almost everybody had Moreno vs Figueiredo 4 as a near pick em, but surprisingly, the fight was one sided. I thought Moreno once and for all solidified his 75 grappling. And I think Figueiredo had a bad weight cut too, definitely didn’t have the same cardio he had in their third fight. Look, I know Pantoja has beat Moreno twice, but the Moreno of today is a much, much improved fighter. Moreno is a little better everywhere and should land more strikes to win a decision.

Chris’ Pick: Moreno by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Moreno -250


Robert Whittaker vs Dricus du Plessis

  • Robert Whittaker
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 12-2 at 185 lbs.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice), MarvinJared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Dricus du Plessis
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Darren Till, a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Derek Brunson, Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter. Beat Brad Tavares.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus plus (75)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

The du Plessis vs Brunson fight was really interesting. 1st round was close. Brunson decided to wrestle. But then du Plessis proceeded to dominate in the 2nd round. And how much of that was because Brunson gassed out vs du Plessis’ pressure tiring Brunson out. How much did du Plessis level up? Based on the numbers, how du Plessis out struck Brunson 50 to 22, I’m going to go out on a limb and say du Plessis’ striking is now a 75, but I could be wrong. I still think Whittaker beat Israel Adesanya in their 2nd fight. I think Whittaker is the best fighter at middleweight right now. But he can be knocked out. Was knocked out by Adesanya. And was almost knocked out by Cannonier. I think du Plessis reckless pressure and bigger power will be too much.

Chris’ Pick: du Plessis by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: du Plessis -135


Dan Hooker vs Jalin Turner

  • Dan Hooker
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 9-4 at 155 lbs. 12-8 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Puelles and James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Jalin Turner
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 7-2 at 155 lbs. 7-3 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Despite the close, split decision loss, Turner definitely leveled up in the Mateusz Gamrot fight. Wrestling was way improved as I know Gamrot has 75 wrestling from his fight with Armen Tsarukyan. On paper this is a coin flip fight, but I think Hooker’s and Turner’s careers are going in opposite directions with Hooker having absorbed way more damage in many a fight.

Chris’ Pick: Turner by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Turner -135


Bo Nickal vs Valentine Woodburn

  • Bo Nickal
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 4-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Pickett, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Valentine Woodburn
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Tresean Gore pulls out and Woodburn steps in on 5 days notice. I watched some of Woodburn in Combat Night. He’s good. Has 60 tools, although there’s more projection baked in there than usual. Has cardio. But his tools just aren’t on the level of Nickal’s. However, these late notice replacements, who have probably been preparing for fights on the Contender, have really been out performing the market. And I think Woodburn could be a live underdog as he hasn’t fought in a year and probably shows up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Nickal by 2nd round submission.

What I think the odds should be: Nickal -175


Robbie Lawler vs Niko Price

  • Robbie Lawler
  • Age: 41
  • UFC Record: 10-7 in his 2nd stint.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rory MacDonald. Split decision over Johny Hendricks and Carlos Condit.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Niko Price
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 7-6
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Alan Jouban, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

There’s no way I can grade Bryan Barberena’s striking above a 65. It might not even be a 65, it might be a 60. That said, Barberena out landed Lawler 138 to 78. That’s regression and that’s why Lawler is going to retire after this fight. I have no choice but to decrease his striking to a 55 grade. On the surface, it might seem like Price’s career is fading too. Price has lost 5 out of his last 8 fights. But I know Phil Rowe has 60 striking and Price got the better of the stand up. So I’m going to tentatively upgrade Price’s striking to a 65. But Price has margin here. Even if it still is a 60, he should be able to get it done.

Chris’ Pick: Price by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Price -350


Josiah Harrell vs Jack Della Maddalena

  • Josiah Harrell
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Jack Della Maddalena
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Despite the undefeated record and all of his wins coming by finish, I watched Harrell take on a well rounded 5-0 fighter and I wasn’t that impressed. Harrell was losing most of the fight. Was taken down and controlled. But it seemed his opponent started to gas out and Harrell took advantage. I don’t see any path to victory for Harrell, despite all the upsets that have been happening in the UFC lately.

Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Della Maddalena -700


Yazmin Jauregui vs Denise Gomes

  • Yazmin Jauregui
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 10-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Iasmin Lucindo.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Denise Gomes
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Sample size is small, but seeing as Gomes out struck Brasil 21 to 9, I feel comfortable elevating Gomes’ striking to a 65. But Jauregui should have enough advantages to win here. I’m more confident that Jauregui’s striking is a 65, might even be as high as a 70. And I think she’ll attempt to take Gomes down and inflict ground and pound like she did against Nunes.

Chris’ Pick: Jauregui by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Jauregui -175


Jimmy Crute vs Alonzo Menifield

  • Jimmy Crute
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 5-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Menifield to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Alonzo Menifield
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 8-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Crute vs Menifield was chaotic the first go around. Crute came in as a -175 favorite. But striking was close to equal. Menfield hurt Crute and it was downhill for Crute until Menifield gassed out chasing the finish. For starters, I know Crute’s wrestling is a 70 with how he was able to take Anthony Smith down 3 times in their fight. And I know his striking is at least a 65. So the most plausible thing that happened is Menifield’s striking leveled up to a 65. Look for Crute to be more focused on taking Menifield down early and trying to tire him out, taking the safe approach.

Chris’ Pick: Crute by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Crute -200


Tatsuro Taira vs Edgar Chairez

  • Tatsuro Taira
  • Age: 23
  • Pro Record: 13-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted Jesus Aguilar, CJ Vergara, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Carlos Candelario.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Edgar Chairez
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-4
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chairez’s loss to Clayton Carpenter has certainly aged well, as it was a close fight. The question though is how good is Chairez’s wrestling? He easily stuffed a couple of take down attempts in the 1st round in the Carpenter fight. But then by the end of the 2nd round, Chairez appeared to be out of gas. And look at the striking numbers round by round, 1st and 2nd were close to equal. But Carpenter out struck Chairez 16 to 8 in the 3rd. I could be wrong, the wrestling could be a 60 grade, but I have it as a 65 for now. I think Carpenter won because he had better cardio. I think Taira should win with better grappling and better cardio. Should be the favorite. But Chairez is a live underdog.

Chris’ Pick: Taira by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Taira -125


Vitor Petrino vs Marcin Prachnio

  • Vitor Petrino
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Rodolfo Bellato twice and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Anton Turkalj
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Marcin Prachnio
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 3-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ike Villanueva. Beat William Knight and Khalil Rountree.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

After seeing Petrino’s wrestling hold up against Turkalj’s 65 grappling, Petrino has established himself as an elite prosect and possible contender. And his cardio also held up throughout the fight better than I thought it would. And after seeing Petrino get some take downs on Turkalj, you know he’ll be able to take down Prachnio as well. It’s the smart game plan.

Chris’ Pick: Petrino by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Petrino -200


Terrence Mitchell vs Cameron Saaiman

  • Terrence Mitchell
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 14-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Cameron Saaiman
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 8-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 grappler and well rounded 5-1 fighter. Majority decision over Mana Martinez.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Finally got to see a bit of Saaiman’s ground game in his last fight with Martinez. Slightly better than I thought it was. It’s a hard fight to pick because all the video of Mitchell that’s out there is 5 years old. Yes, Mitchell took a 5 year break from MMA. Came back a few months ago in February, had a couple fights in Alaska. No video of it. So there’s a lot of projection baked in to where I have him graded.

Chris’ Pick: Saaiman by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Saaiman -125


Shannon Ross vs Jesus Aguilar

  • Shannon Ross
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 12-6
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Lost to Ashkan Mokhtarian.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little average (55)
  • Jesus Aguilar
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Edgar Chairez, an 11-1 striker, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

The fight could go either way, but Ross has big power and I think the fight will be on the feet long enough for Ross to catch Aguilar.

Chris’ Pick: Ross by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Ross -125


Kamuela Kirk vs Esteban Ribovics

  • Kamuela Kirk
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 12-5
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to a well rounded 8-4 fighter. Split decision loss to a 6-1 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat Makwan Amirkhani.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Esteban Ribovics
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a 5-1 grappler, a well rounded 17-6 fighter, and a well rounded 21-6 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

When Kirk went into the Damon Jackson fight, the line closed as a pick em. Each -110. And then Jackson out classed Kirk. So what happened? I think Jackson showed up improved and Kirk probably wasn’t as good as we thought. Also shows maybe Amirkhani’s skills are on the decline as Kirk beat him. Ribovics might’ve lost to Loik Radzhabov, but it was close. And Ribovics had the wrestling and cardio to get back up every time he was taken down. Coin flip fight. Both guy’s striking tools could be close to 65’s. But I give Ribovics a slight edge because I think he has better wrestling and cardio.

Chris’ Pick: Ribovics by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Ribovics -150

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