Holm vs Bueno Silva, Duraev vs Park, Dumont vs Chandler Fight Picks – July 15, 2023

Holly Holm vs Mayra Bueno Silva

  • Holly Holm
  • Age: 41
  • UFC Record: 8-6
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ketlen Vieira.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ronda Rousey and Bethe Correira. Beat Raquel Pennington twice. Beat Yano Santos, Irene Aldana and Megan Anderson at 145 lbs.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Mayra Bueno Silva
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 6-2-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Montana de la Rosa to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Lina Lansberg, Stephanie Egger, and a 7-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-0 fighter in her 1st pro fight. Beat Yanan Wu. Split decision over a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Surprisingly, despite her being 41 years old, Holm’s wrestling is undeniably a 75. She showed traces of that in the Ketlen Vieira fight, controlling her in the clinch. But in her last fight with Santos, she was able to take Santos down and control her. When Bueno Silva closed as a -475 favorite, I thought it was because the market thought Lansberg was done at 40 years old, but also because they thought her grappling was a 70. And okay, she did show 70 grade grappling. But the striking with Lansberg was close to equal 21 to 18. I thought Lansberg’s striking was a 60, maybe both have 65 grade striking. Maybe. I think I’m projecting a bit here. But that’s okay here because it shouldn’t matter. Holm has all the advantages here. No way will Bueno Silva be able to get Holm down. Stand up fight, 5 rounds, plays into Holm’s cardio. Bueno Silva has 1 KO in 10 career fights. I think Holm cruises here.

Chris’ Pick: Holm by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Holm -350


Jack Della Maddalena vs Bassil Hafez

  • Jack Della Maddalena
  • Age: 26
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Bassil Hafez
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 8-3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-5 grappler. Submitted an 8-0 striker. Split decision over Anthony Ivy.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

Hafez recently fought a known commodity in Ivy, just last year. Split decision win. Then his next fight, which is also his last fight, he showed slight improvement, decently confident the wrestling is a 60. Slight chance the striking is a 60, but I have it at a 55 for now. Hafez has probably been training for a fight on the Contender, but even if that’s true, it’s not going to matter. I mean, Della Maddalena is coming off a 1st round submission win over Brown. Despite the crazy upsets we’ve had lately, I can’t imagine how Hafez, who has only 1 KO in 8 wins, pulls this off.

Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Della Maddalena -600


Ottman Azaitar vs Francisco Prado

  • Ottman Azaitar
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 13-1
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, and 6-1 striker. 
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Francisco Prado
  • Age: 21
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 9-3 striker, and a 5-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Coin flip fight. Especially because the longest UFC fight we’ve seen Azaitar in lasted less than 4 minutes. And Prado did okay against Jamie Mullarkey on short notice, but it’s possible he looks better here. But I’m picking Azaitar because I expect him to blitz and he’s usually good in those types of fire fights.

Chris’ Pick: Azaitar by 1st round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Azaitar -125


Albert Duraev vs Jun Yong Park

  • Albert Duraev
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 16-4
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 13-3 wrestler, a 5-0 grappler, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 32-5 fighter and a 30-5 grappler. Beat Roman Kopylov, Sergey Khandozhko, and a 13-3 wrestler. Split decision over Chidi Njokuani.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Jun Yong Park
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision against a 5-4 wrestler. 
  • Key Wins: Submitted Dennis Tiuliulin and Joseph Holmes. Beat Marc-Andre Barriault and a 18-6 striker. Majority decision over Tafon Nchukwi. Split decision over Eryk Anders.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Duraev’s striking leveled up to a 65 grade in his close split decision win over Njokuani. Striking was close to equal. With how quickly Park dispatched Tiuliulin, it’s possible his grappling could be a 70 now, but I’m not there yet. Duraev will have more power, but I don’t see him getting the KO with how durable Park is. Cardio of both is great. Real pick em type fight, but I give Duraev the slightest of edges here for doing more damage with his strikes.

Chris’ Pick: Duraev by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Duraev -125


Norma Dumont vs Chelsea Chandler

  • Norma Dumont
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 5-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Macy Chiasson.
  • Key Wins: Beat Karol Rosa, Danyelle Wolf, Aspen Ladd and Ashlee Evans-Smith. Split decision win over Felicia Spencer.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Chelsea Chandler
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 5-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Julija Stoliarenko and a 3-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

It’s crazy to see someone like Chandler come into her UFC debut with so much power. Stoliarenko is a quality UFC caliber fighter and Chandler made it look easy. It’s possible I’m grading Chandler’s striking too high. Chandler only out struck Stoliarenko 17 to 12, but I think if that fight kept going, Chandler would get the better of her. Could be a close fight if Dumont shows up improved or if Chandler’s cardio doesn’t hold up, but I think Chandler’s power will be too much for Dumont.

Chris’ Pick: Chandler by 2nd round knockout.

What I think the odds should be: Chandler -175


Terrance McKinney vs Nazim Sadykhov

  • Terrance McKinney
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 3-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Fares Ziam.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Nazim Sadykhov
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

McKinney might’ve lost his last 2 out of 3 fights, but it’s been guys like Drew Dober and Ismael Bonfim. No shame there and I’m confident in saying Sadykhov is a step down in competition. The only question mark for me is McKinney’s chin and durability. All 3 of his losses have come by KO. But I think McKinney will be smart and take Sadykhov down like he did with Ziam.

Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round submission.

What I think the odds should be: McKinney -600


Tucker Lutz vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

  • Tucker Lutz
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Aguilar and a 5-0 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin. Beat Bruno Souza and a 4-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

The loss to Culibao was fluky. Baghdasaryan got knocked down, might have tripped. Culibao took advantage and immediately went for a choke, caught Baghdasaryan by surprise. Was a close fight up until that point. Lutz is a good bounce back opponent for him. Baghdasaryan has way more power, will do more damage.

Chris’ Pick: Baghdasaryan by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Baghdasaryan -275


Viktoriia Dudakova vs Istela Nunes

  • Viktoriia Dudakova
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Maria Silva.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Istela Nunes
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 6-4
  • UFC Record: 0-3
  • Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Sam Hughes.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Nunes might’ve gotten knocked out in her last fight, but she did show improved 60 wrestling against Yazmin Jauregui. I’m still shocked by how much Dudakova out performed the market. Her opponent Silva closed as a -300 favorite. And yet Dudakova was able to take Silva down and control her for most of the fight. Striking was even close to equal. Really good fight here despite Nunes’ record. I wouldn’t be shocked if Nunes knocks her out, but Dudakova’s grappling could be close to a 70 and she should have the cardio to grapple all fight if she needs to.

Chris’ Pick: Dudakova by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Dudakova -125


Austin Lingo vs Melquizael Costa

  • Austin Lingo
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 9-2
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat Luis Saldana.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Melquizael Costa
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 19-6
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

On the surface, it looked like a normal outcome of a fight. Thiago Moises closed as a -400 favorite to beat Costa. And he did, submitted him in the 2nd round. Ho hum. But in evaluating where Costa’s tools are at, you have to look under the hood. Costa fought up a weight class, at 155 lbs and he fought on 2 weeks notice. This fight with Lingo is at Costa’s natural weight class, 145 lbs. And one other interesting nugget. Costa actually out struck Moises on the feet 21 to 11. He should out strike Lingo to win.

Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Costa -225


Evan Elder vs Genaro Valdez

  • Evan Elder
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Genaro Valdez
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 10-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and an 8-3 wrestler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: average (50)

I thought Valdez vs Natan Levy would be close. The market disagreed with me and had Levy close as a -200 favorite. The market was right and Levy out struck Valdez 66 to 41. My point is that Valdez is still the same guy I thought he was, it’s just Levy is better than I thought he was. Coin flip fight, but I’m picking Elder because I think I might be under rating him like I did with Levy.

Chris’ Pick: Elder by split decision.

What I think the odds should be: Elder -125


Tyson Nam vs Azat Maksum

  • Tyson Nam
  • Age: 39
  • UFC Record: 3-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Matt Schnell.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ode Osbourne and Jerome Rivera.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Azat Maksum
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 16-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 8-0 striker, a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a 5-0 grappler. Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-3 striker. Beat a 5-1 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

I watched Maksum take on a 8-0 striker, really impressive. Was about to take the opponent down pretty easily. Had better striking. Very high ceiling. Nam is a real stiff test for anybody making their UFC debut, but Maksum has the skills to beat him.

Chris’ Pick: Maksum by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Maksum -250


Alex Munoz vs Carl Deaton

  • Alex Munoz
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Luis Pena.
  • Key Wins: Beat Nick Newell and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Split decision over a 5-1 grappler. 
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60) 
  • Carl Deaton
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 17-6
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Wins: Beat Justin Jaynes.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

I thought Deaton’s grappling was a 60 going into his UFC debut with Joe Solecki, but instead Solecki out classed him on the ground. Fight could go either way but I have more confidence Munoz’s striking is a 55.

Chris’ Pick: Munoz by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Munoz -135


Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Ailin Perez

  • Ashlee Evans-Smith
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 3-5
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Sarah Moras.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Veronica Macedo. Split decision over Marion Reneau.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)
  • Ailin Perez
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Despite the loss to Stephanie Egger, I was still impressed by Perez. I thought Egger would really out class her on the ground, but Perez was able to get back up and even got a couple take downs of her own. They didn’t strike much, so I admit grading Perez’s striking a 60 has a bit of projection baked in, but I watched Perez before she got to the UFC and thought her striking was ahead of her wrestling, so I’m decently confident I have that tool graded right. Evans-Smith returns to fight for the first time in almost 3 years. And she’s only fought once since 2019. Very inactive. Now she’s 35 years old. She showed off 55 tools in her last fight with Norma Dumont, but it’s hard to say whether she shows up improved or not.

Chris’ Pick: Perez by decision.

What I think the odds should be: Perez -200

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