
Tom Aspinall vs Marcin Tybura
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Beat Blagoi Ivanov, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergei Spivac. Majority decision over Alexandr Romanov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Soft landing spot for Aspinall as Tybura isn’t much of a threat anywhere, except with his wrestling, which he won’t be able to really utilize with Aspinall. Striking could be close on the feet but Aspinall is going to have a massive speed and power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Aspinall -225
Molly McCann vs Julija Stoliarenko
- Molly McCann
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Goldy and Luana Carolina. Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Julija Stoliarenko
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 125 lbs. 1-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Stoliarenko might have an ugly 1-5 UFC record, but she’s still a live underdog. On the surface, you look at Stoliarenko’s last fight and how she got bullied by Chelsea Chandler and think no way is her grappling a 65. But look at the weight. Stoliarenko was against a featherweight. Here, she’s going back down to flyweight where she submitted Clark in less than a minute. And it’s entirely possible that her grappling could be a 70 at 125 lbs. We only saw her for 42 seconds with Clark so I’m not sure. But she’s had 65 grappling in her last couple fights with Alexis Davis and Julia Avila. No shame in McCann losing to Blanchfield who looks like a probable champion. McCann has more power and will likely have the judges on her side, but McCann’s wrestling is still a 60 grade. I’m confident Stoliarenko will be able to get her down at least a couple times and that makes her most likely to win.
Chris’ Pick: Stoliarenko by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Stoliarenko -135
Nathaniel Wood vs Andre Fili
- Nathaniel Wood
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Johnny Eduardo and Jose Quinonez, Beat Charles Jourdain and Charles Rosa.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Andre Fili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 10-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gabriel Benitez and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Bill Algeo and Charles Jourdain.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Bill Algeo has 65 striking after all, but that doesn’t change anything about Fili’s skill set. Fili would be smart here to mix in some wrestling, but that’s not usually his style. This is a good show case fight for Wood in the UK. Fili doesn’t really have KO power and won’t be much of a threat on the feet. But then Wood could take Fili down too so he’s got two paths to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Wood by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Wood -300
Paul Craig vs Andre Muniz
- Paul Craig
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-6-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamahal Hill and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Andre Muniz
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Eryk Anders, Jacare Souza, Bartosz Fabinski, a 5-0 striker, and a 6-0 striker. Beat Uriah Hall and an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
I’m still not sure what happened with Muniz in the Allen fight. Was it an off night? Is Allen’s grappling just that much better. There’s no way Muniz’s grappling is worse than a 70. But I am convinced that Muniz’s striking is a 65 grade. Craig is moving down to 185 lbs for the first time in his career. And at 35 years of age, I’m not sure how durable his chin will be, but likely for him Muniz isn’t a big power threat. Close fight and unpredictable due to not knowing how Craig looks at middleweight, but I’m going to give him a slight edge for naturally being bigger than Muniz.
Chris’ Pick: Craig by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Craig -125
Jai Herbert vs Fares Ziam
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 2-3-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Draws: Fought Ludovit Klein to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter. Beat Kyle Nelson.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Herbert’s last fight with Klein might have been ruled a draw by the judges, but that doesn’t change the fact that it was the performance of his career. Herbert’s wrestling in particular took a big leap forward and I now have it as a 65. I know Figlak is a good prospect but I still can’t believe he was a -195 favorite to beat Ziam. Maybe the market thought Figlak would be able to take Ziam down like Terrence McKinney. But instead, it was Ziam getting the take downs and showed improved wrestling. Fun matchup but I like Herbert because he’s going to have more power.
Chris’ Pick: Herbert by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Herbert -150
Lerone Murphy vs Josh Culibao
- Lerone Murphy
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Zubaira Tukhugov to a split decision draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Gabriel Santos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Josh Culibao
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Charles Jourdain to a split draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Melsik Baghdasaryan. Knocked out a 6-2 striker. Split decision over Seung Woo Choi.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
This should be a wild and crazy fight like Culibao vs Baghdasaryan, but I expect Murphy to try and slow things down with his wrestling and I think that gives him a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Murphy by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Murphy -135
Davey Grant vs Daniel Marcos
- Davey Grant
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Submitted Raphael Assuncao. Knocked out Louis Smolka and Jonathan Martinez. Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Daniel Marcos
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Saimon Oliveira and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Grant’s striking got really close to a 70 in the Assuncao fight but the thing I do know is despite being 37 years old, he’s leveled up his wrestling to a 65 with the way he was able to get back up. This is Grant’s fight to lose. He’s better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Grant by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Grant -250
Danny Roberts vs Jonny Parsons
- Danny Roberts
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Mike Perry and Michel Pereira.
- Key Wins: Split decision wins over Ramazan Emeev and David Zawada.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jonny Parsons
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: fringe average (45)
It’s possible I could be under rating Parsons striking. Yes, he beat Solomon Renfro on the Contender. Yes, it was an entertaining fight. But Renfro gassing out from trying to finish Parsons early was definitely part of the outcome. Roberts best years are behind him, but he should be good enough to take Parsons down.
Chris’ Pick: Roberts by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Roberts -250
Joel Alvarez vs Marc Diakiese
- Joel Alvarez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key WIns: Submitted Alexander Yakovlev, Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out Thiago Moises and a 12-4 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Marc Diakiese
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Drakkar Klose.
- Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic, Viacheslav Borshchev,, Joseph Duffy, and Lando Vannata.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I can’t deny Michael Johnson anymore. He’s back. His tools are 65’s. And that’s the best explanation I have for how Johnson out struck Diakiese 79 to 52. As for Diakiese, I have to downgrade his striking tool to a 60. Alvarez is still an elite prospect and he’s going to have no problem dispatching Diakiese.
Chris’ Pick: Alvarez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Alvarez -500
Mick Parkin vs Jamal Pogues
- Mick Parkin
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Eduardo Neves.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Jamal Pogues
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat Josh Parisian, a 10-1 striker, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, an 11-0 striker, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not only did Pogues show improved 60 wrestling, but he also showed he had the cardio to utilize it for most of the fight. Parkin’s fight on the Contender only lasted a couple minutes. He got out struck, but won because his opponent had an adrenaline dump and gassed out. But. That was a year ago and it’s possible Parking shows up improved. Wouldn’t be surprised if Pogues grinds out a win, but I think Parkin’s power is the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Parkin by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Parkin -125
Makhmud Muradov vs Bryan Barberena
- Makhmud Muradov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andrew Sanchez, Trevor Smith, a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Beat Alessio Di Chirico.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bryan Barberena
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-8
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Jason Witt.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Robbie Lawler. Beat Darian Weeks and Warlley Alves. Split decision over Matt Brown.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Muradov might’ve lost to Caio Borralho, but he definitely improved his wrestling as he was able to get back up and resist. The 65 striking does have a bit of projection baked in but I’m decently sure that’s where the tool is at. After Barberena had the performance of his career and knocked out Lawler, I thought his striking had taken a step forward to a 65 grade. But after seeing his last two fights, I think a 60 striking grade is more accurate. I actually see Muradov using his wrestling to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Muradov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Muradov -400
Ketlen Vieira vs Pannie Kianzad
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raquel Pennington.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks, and Ashley Evans-Smith. Split decision over Holly Holm.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Pannie Kianzad
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Lina Lansberg, Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Kianzad has been really improving the past couple years, but her last fight with Lansberg clearly showed her striking is still just a 65. And that won’t get it done with Vieira who has legit, proven 70 striking. And Vieira is also capable of getting a submission on the ground as well.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Vieira -250
Chris Duncan vs Yanal Ashmoz
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Yanal Ashmoz
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sam Patterson and a 4-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Duncan’s fight with Morales made me confident of where his skills are at. But Ashmoz, he’s still a mystery, not much is known, yeah he upset Patterson and knocked him out but the fight only lasted a minute. But I’ll admit, even though it’s a super small sample, my eyes are telling me Ashmoz’s striking could be a 65, so I give him a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Ashmoz by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Ashmoz -135
Bruna Brasil vs Shauna Bannon
- Bruna Brasil
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marnic Mann. Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Shauna Bannon
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a 3-0-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Bannon was even better than I expected. In her last fight she took on Invicta vet Minna Grusander, who lost a close split decision to UFC fighter Jinh Yu Frey. Well, Bannon dominated. Her wrestling and strength really stood out. Brasil is a good prospect but she’s not going to have an answer for Bannon’s wrestling.
Chris’ Pick: Bannon by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bannon -250
Jafel Filho vs Daniel Barez
- Jafel Filho
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 grappler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador and a 7-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Daniel Barez
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-2 striker. Submitted a 6-0 grappler. Beat a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Filho lost to Muhammad Mokaev, but his striking was a bit better than I thought, enough for me to bump his striking up to a 60 grade. And that should be enough for him to out point Barez on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Filho by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Filho -200