
Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje 2
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 21-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Connor McGregor (twice), Justin Gaethje, and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Michael Chandler and Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Justin Gaethje
- Age: 34
- UFC record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Edson Barboza, and Donald Cerrone. Beat Michael Chandler. Majority decision over Rafael Fiziev.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Amazingly Fiziev closed as more than a 2 to 1 favorite over Gaethje, which means the market thought Fiziev’s striking was better, a 75 grade. But instead Gaethje edged him out on the feet, 84 to 81. But that just means Fiziev’s striking is a 70 all along, like I thought. I do think Poirier’s striking is a 75, but it’s not a lock. That tool showed signs of being closer to a 70 in Poirier’s fight with Chandler. But either way, I think this fight is all about durability and Poirier has proven to be more durable. Gaethje has been knocked out a lot more often and even his fight with Charles Oliveira, Oliveira got the submission, but that was after he knocked Gaethje down with a strike.
Chris’ Pick: Poirier by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Poirier -175
Jan Blachowicz vs Alex Pereira
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 12-6
- Key Draws: Fought Magomed Ankalaev to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I haven’t been sure that Blachowicz’s striking is a 75. Now I know for sure after his fight with Ankalaev. Striking was close to equal and I know Ankalaev doesn’t have 75 striking. And it was also reaffirmed that Blachowicz’s wrestling is a 65. Pereira’s striking has proven to be a 75. He got knocked out in the second Adesanya fight, but he had out struck Adesanya 48 to 40 up to that point. Adesanya doesn’t have the most power and the fact Pereira got knocked out so cold like that makes me think the weight cut was so tough on him he wasn’t as durable. Could be wrong. Now Pereira moves up to 205 lbs. I think he’ll be more durable. I’m more confident in Pereira’s striking being a 75 than Blachowicz, but it wouldn’t surprise me a ton if it’s Blachowicz who gets the KO.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pereira -135
Derrick Lewis vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Derrick Lewis
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 17-9
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Daukaus, Curtis Blaydes, Alexei Oleinik, Shamil Abdurakhimov, Travis Browne, and Alexander Volkov. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-3 at heavyweight. 10-6 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ben Rothwell. Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Maurice Greene. and Adam Wieczorek.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This fight is going to be all about Rogerio de Lima’s cardio. Because the smart game plan would be to replicate what Serghei Spivac was able to do to Lewis. Take him down as many times as need be. And Rogerio de Lima will be able to take him down. But Lewis will likely be able to get back up the first one or two times which means Rogerio de Lima needs to have enough gas in the tank to keep doing it. And I think he will. Barely.
Chris’ Pick: Rogerio de Lima by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Rogerio de Lima -150
Tony Ferguson vs Bobby Green
- Tony Ferguson
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 18-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bobby Green
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-9-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rashid Magomedov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Al Iaquinta. Beat Nasrat Haqparast, Alan Patrick, Lando Vannata and Erik Koch.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Even though Ferguson is only 3 years older, both are in very different points of their careers. Green has never looked better. Had a strong past couple years. Ferguson has lost 5 in a row. So even though on paper, looking at the skills of both, this is a very even fight, I think the risk of Ferguson regressing further gives Green a slight edge here. I’m also more confident that Green’s striking is a legit 70, less sure about Ferguson.
Chris’ Pick: Green by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Green -125
Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Holland
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-2 at 170 lbs. 11-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Beneil Bariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 2-0 at 170 lbs. 11-5 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I’ve seen too much of Chiesa to think his grappling is less than a 70. And part of me thinks the tool might still be a 75. But that Brady fight puts that theory in doubt. Brady got 5 take downs and over 7 minutes of control time. But was that because Chiesa was trying to work his jiu-jitsu game from the bottom or because he couldn’t get up even if he wanted to. Not completely sure. But bottom line, Holland still has a big hole in his game, which is the lack of wrestling and take down defense. Especially when I think Chiesa’s grappling is a borderline 75, I don’t see how he loses this fight.
Chris’ Pick: Chiesa by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Chiesa -300
Gabriel Bonfim vs Trevin Giles
- Gabriel Bonfim
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 14-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Trevin Giles
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bevon Lewis, an 8-1 grappler, and a 9-2 grappler. Submitted a 9-2 striker. Beat Louis Cosce and Roman Dolidze. Split decision over Preston Parsons and Ryan Spann.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
If Giles had issues with Parsons occasionally taking him down, he’s going to have real problems with Bonfim.
Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Bonfim -250
Vinicius Salvador vs CJ Vergara
- Vinicius Salvador
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- CJ Vergara
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva, Bruno Korea and Jacob Silva. Split decision over Kleydson Rodrigues.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Coin flip fight. But I’m picking Salvador because I have more confidence his striking is a 60. Yes, Vergara knocked out Lacerda in his last fight, but it happened because Lacerda hurt Vergara in the 1st round and gassed out trying to finish him.
Chris’ Pick: Salvador by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Salvador -135
Roman Kopylov vs Claudio Ribeiro
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Claudio Ribeiro
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Holmes, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
The outcome of Kopylov’s fight was incredible. Soriano closed as a -140 favorite. And instead of Soriano winning and instead of it being a close fight, Kopylov out strikes him 76 to 33. Wow. I’ve sometimes thought Soriano’s striking could be as high as a 65, but I know for certain it’s not worse than a 60. Which means I’ve elevated Kopylov’s striking to a 70. True breakout perfomance and Ribeiro will be no match for him.
Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kopylov -500
Darrius Flowers vs Jake Matthews
- Darrius Flowers
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 12-2 striker, a 4-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Beat Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Matthews has to be one of the most inconsistent fighters in the UFC. He really reminds me of Charles Oliveira, before Oliveira became a title contender. I thought for sure Matthews’ striking leveled up to a 70 after he out struck Fialho 44 to 18. But then he takes on Matthew Semelsberger and I don’t know if it’s because Matthews was hurt early in the fight, but the striking was close to equal and I know for sure Semelsberger’s striking isn’t a 70. People might have seen Flowers knocking out Amiran Gogoladze with a slam as an upset. Gogoladze did close as a -285 favorite. But I thought Flowers would win all along, that he had gotten better. I expected Flowers to win. With the fight only lasting a couple minutes, I’m keeping Flowers tools where they’re at. That said, Matthews is a steep step up and is just better everywhere. Too much, too soon for Flowers.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Matthews -400
Matthew Semelsberger vs Uros Medic
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Jeremiah Wells.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Martin Sano and Jason Witt. Beat Jake Matthews, AJ Fletcher, and a 10-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Uros Medic
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
Medic bounced back from the Jalin Turner loss to put on the best performance of his career. Striking is almost to a 65 grade, but not quite. Which means Semelsberger’s striking will be better and I even think he’ll be able to mix in some take downs if he wants too.
Chris’ Pick: Semelsberger by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Semelsberger -300
Miranda Maverick vs Priscila Cachoeira
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Priscila Cachoeira
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski, Gina Mazany, and Shana Dobson. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I wasn’t the only one thinking Maverick would cruise against Jasmine Jasudavicius. Maverick came in as a -275 favorite. Maverick’s wrestling seemed like a 70 grade tool. But she took a steo back in the Jasudavicius fight. Not sure why. Jasudavicius showed up improved for sure. We haven’t seen Cachoeira in close to a year. Tough stylistic matchup for her as Maverick should have not only the wrestling to take her down but also the cardio to be able to use it the whole fight. But Cachoeira definitely has a puncher’s chance.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Maverick -175