Corey Sandhagen vs Rob Font
- Cory Sandhagen
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Edgar, Marlon Moraes, and Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Yadong Song, and Raphael Assuncao. Split decision wins over Marlon Vera and John Lineker.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average grappling (60)
- Rob Font
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The past few fights, Font went with a volume striking approach. Less power, but landing more shots. And for some reason, the judges showed no appreciation for that in the Aldo and Vera fights. They said Aldo and Vera landed more damage and said they won, despite Font out landing by significant margin. Fast forward to Font’s Yanez fight where Font was seemingly sitting down on his punches more and got Yanez out of there in less than 3 minutes. So has Font unlocked more power? Or is this change in approach going to result in him landing less? Hard to tell. I do know Sandhagen likely has more power. I know Sandhagen isn’t afraid to mix take downs in, saw him do that to Chito Vera in his last fight, think he’ll be able to do the same to Font.
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Sandhagen -175
Jessica Andrade vs Tatiana Suarez
- Jessica Andrade
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3 at 115 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo, Rose Namajunas, Katlyn Chookagian, and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Submitted Amanda Lemos and Joanne Calderwood. Beat Lauren Murphy, Claudia Gadelha, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tatiana Suarez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Montana de la Rosa and Alexa Grasso. Knocked out Carla Esparza. Beat Nina Nunes.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
So here’s the tricky question. Is Andrade starting to regress? Erin Blanchfield out classed her but that was at 125 bs. Andrade’s last fight with Yan Xiaonan, it was at 115 lbs. Andrade closed as a -175 favorite. But not only did Yan knock Andrade out, she also out struck Andrade 23 to 13. So it’s possible Andrade could be starting to regress, but too early to downgrade her striking from a 70. However, I am concerned with Andrade’s chin and that the weight cuts to 115 lbs might be compromising her durability at this point. Suarez’s win over de la Rosa didn’t look the most impressive, but it was up a weight class at 125 lbs, plus it was her first fight back in 4 years. I think this fight is all about whether Suarez has the cardio to try to wrestle Andrade for 15 minutes, taking her down as many times as she needs to. I think she does, but Andrade is definitely still a threat with the power.
Chris’ Pick: Suarez by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Suarez -175
Dustin Jacoby vs Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 7-2-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khalil Rountree.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg. Submitted Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Jacoby lost a really close decision to Azamat Murzakanov, but he did show me his wrestling for sure is a 65. Nzechukwu’s striking is really close to a 70. And he also proved in the Clark fight that he doesn’t have to take his opponent down to work his grappling. Nzechukwu has more ways to win and is a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Nzechukwu -175
Diego Lopes vs Gavin Tucker
- Diego Lopes
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 20-6
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcos Beltran and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Gavin Tucker
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Billy Quarantillo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Lopes came inches away, several times, to pulling off one of the biggest upsets in UFC history. Movsar Evloev closed as a -900 favorite. And Lopes threaten Evloev several times with submission attempts on the ground. Supremely impressive for someone who took the fight on very short notice. Tucker is really good, but I can’t help but think that Lopes will look even better with a full training camp and he should have more power than Tucker. Plus this is Tucker’s first fight back after getting knocked out in the 1st round.
Chris’ Pick: Lopes by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Lopes -175
Tanner Boser vs Aleksa Camur
- Tanner Boser
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 0-1 at 205 lbs. 4-4 overall
- Key Losses: Lost to Andrei Arlovski. Split decision loss to Ilir Latifi.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ovince St Preux, Raphael Pessoa, and Philipe Lins.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Aleksa Camur
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Camur returns for the first time in over 2 years. And his split decision loss to Negumereanu now doesn’t look as bad as Negumereanu has proven to be good with well rounded 60 tools. Camur’s wrestling is definitely a 55, but one thing to keep in mind is that it’s possible his striking could be as high as a 65 as he out struck Negumereanu 88 to 61. But I think the most plausible thing is that Negumereanu had 55 striking coming into that fight. Boser should be good enough to beat Camur, but my only concern is how durable Boser is at 205 lbs. And it’s also safe to assume Camur shows up improved, but the question is how improved?
Chris’ Pick: Boser by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Boser -275
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Ludovit Klein
- Ignacio Bahamondes
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to John Makdessi.
- Key Wins: Submitted Zhu Rong. Knocked out Roosevelt Roberts and a 6-1 striker. Beat Trey Ogden and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-2 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus: (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Mason Jones and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Bahamondes leveled up and outperformed the market in his Ogden fight, out striking him 99 to 42. Crazy. I have Ogden as a 60 striker. There’s a bit of projection baked into grading Bahamondes wrestling a 65, but I’m pretty sure that’s where it’s at.
Chris’ Pick: Bahamondes by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bahamondes -225
Billy Quarantillo vs Damon Jackson
- Billy Quarantillo
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Hernandez, Gabriel Benitez, Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini and a 12-3 grappler. Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Does Jackson really have 70 striking? He might. Dan Ige’s striking was reaffirmed as a 70 in his win over Nate Landwehr, out struck him 78 to 55. And then there’s Jackson. Before he got knocked out by Ige, he out landed him 32 to 28. I’m reluctant, but numbers don’t lie and I have no choice but to upgrade Jackson’s striking to a 70 grade. Jackson has good cardio, Quarantillo’s pressure shouldn’t be an issue. I see Jackson landing more to win.
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jackson -200
Raoni Barcelos vs Kyler Phillips
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Trevin Jones, Khalid Taha, and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Kyler Phillips
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Raulian Paiva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Marcelo Rojo. Knocked out a 4-1 grappler. Beat Yadong Song and an 8-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s been over a year and a half since we’ve last seen Phillips in the octagon. He gets booked to a lot of fights but pulls out a lot. Assuming this matchup happens, it’s a coin flip. Decent assumption Phillips shows up improved, whereas Barcelos is 8 years older and has been very inconsistent. I see Phillips landing a few more strikes to win a potentially close decision win.
Chris’ Pick: Phillips by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Phillips -135
Jeremiah Wells vs Carlston Harris
- Jeremiah Wells
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 12-2-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Court McGee, Warlley Alves, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Blood Diamond and a 6-2 wrestler. Beat an 11-4 grappler and an 18-5 wrestler. Split decision over Matthew Semelsberger.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlston Harris
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 18-5
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to an 11-7 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Impa Kasanganay and an 8-1 striker. Submitted a 17-1 grappler. Beat Jared Gooden, Wellington Turman, a 7-1 striker, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: alittle above average (55)
After watching Neil Magney vs Gilbert Burns, I think I’ve now solved how good Harris’ wrestling is. Magny showed 60 wrestling vs Shavkat Rakhmonov. Said he had an off night. But then he took on Burns and once again showed 60 wrestling. So that’s where he’s at now. Rakhmonov showed 70 grappling against Magny. Which brings us to Rakhmonov vs Harris. And Harris hung in there, got taken down a couple times, but was able to get back up. Thus, Harris’ wrestling is a 65, not a 60 like I previously thought. Wells might have a split decision win over Semelsberger on his record, but that fight wasn’t close. Wells dominated with his wrestling. Clear cut win where Wells leveled up even more. The thing I was most impressed with was his cardio and ability to wrestle the whole fight, despite how much muscle he carries. On the feet, it could be close, but the smart game plan is for Wells to take Harris down.
Chris’ Pick: Wells by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Wells -175
Sean Woodson vs Dennis Buzukja
- Sean Woodson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by Julian Erosa.
- Key Draws: Fought Luis Saldana to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin and a 6-1 grappler. Beat Kyle Bochniak. Split decision over Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Dennis Buzukja
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Striking: a little above average above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Once and for all, it’s been proven Woodson’s striking as of now is a 60. There’s no way Saldana has 65 striking. Striking with him was close to equal. I suspected Woodson’s striking was a 60 after how close his fight with Zalal was but now I know for sure. I wasn’t that impressed with Buzukja’s win on the Contender against a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Buzukja closed as a -400 favorite. But the fight ended up being close, striking was close. Opponent had a slight edge in the wrestling. Buzukja is taking this fight on a few days notice and is the UFC’s 4th opponent they have tried to match Woodson up with. And if Buzukja shows up improved, Woodson should have margin to win.
Chris’ Pick: Woodson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Woodson -400
Cody Durden vs Jake Hadley
- Cody Durden
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jake Hadley
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Carlos Candelario, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Knocked out Malcolm Gordon. Beat a well rounded 10-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
A 70 grade for Durden’s wrestling might be a little too high, but he did have over 9 minutes of control on 65 wrestler Johnson. I know Hadley is the hot prospect right now and will likely be the betting favorite because of that, but from what I’ve seen so far and what the numbers say, Durden should have a slight edge.
Chris’ Pick: Durden by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Durden -135
Ode Osbourne vs Assu Almabaev
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara. Split decision over Charles Johnson.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Assu Almabaev
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 17-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat a 4-0 grappler and a 14-4 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Based on Osbourne closing as a -170 favorite over Johnson, the market thought he’d have better striking, like a 65 grade. But the striking ended up being close to equal. Instead what Osbourne did show is improved wrestling, which impressed me. The guy I watched Almabaev fight in Brave, I’m pretty sure his wrestling was at least a 55. But Almabaev dominated him on the ground for nearly the full 15 minutes. The opponent got nowhere close to being able to get back up. Easy 65 wrestling for me and the tool could even be as high as a 70. But I’m picking Osbourne because I have more confidence his striking is a 60 and should have more power.
Chris’ Pick: Osbourne by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Osbourne -135