Serghei Spivac vs Marcin Tybura
- Serghei Spivac
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Tybura.
- Key Wins: Submitted Derrick Lewis, Greg Hardy, Tai Tuivasa, and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Augusto Sakai and Jared Vanderaa. Beat Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision over Carlos Felipe.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Blagoi Ivanov, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergei Spivac. Majority decision over Alexandr Romanov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I’m pretty sure Spivac’s striking is a 65, but wow, he really melted against Ciryl Gane. Spivac was out struck 105 to 11. Might be one of the widest gaps in striking in UFC history. Needless to say, it’s possible Spivac’s striking is closer to a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tybura -275
Damon Jackson vs Chepe Mariscal
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini and a 12-3 grappler. Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Split decision over Alexander Hernandez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Jose Mariscal
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Jenkins. Beat Trevor Peek and Youssef Zalal. Split decision wins over Morgan Charriere and Pat Sabatini.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Mariscal by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mariscal -175
Nikolay Veretennikov vs Danny Barlow
- Nikolay Veretennikov
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Ivy and a 5-2 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Danny Barlow
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Quinlan and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Veretennikov’s close decision loss to Michael Morales has aged well as Morales has grown into a title contender. And Veretennikov actually out struck Morales 41 to 35.
Chris’ Pick: Veretennikov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Veretennikov -225
Chris Gutierrez vs Quang Le
- Chris Gutierrez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Durden to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa and Vince Morales. Beat Alateng Heili, Andre Ewell. Split decision wins over Felipe Dias Colares and Geraldo de Freitas.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Quang Le
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I know Gutierrez lost his last fight, know he was dominated on the ground the last 2 rounds. Now, I could be wrong here, but I still think Gutierrez’s wrestling is a 70. I think this was his first 5 round fight and he gassed out after 3 rounds. I know Song Yadong’s striking is at least a 70 and Gutierrez out struck him 87 to 49. I’m confident that Le’s last opponent’s striking was absolutely no better than a 55. Le got the better of it, but also got hit a lot too. No way his striking is better than a 60 and could very well be a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Gutierrez by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gutierrez -600
Yana Santos vs Chelsea Chandler
- Yana Santos
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-4 at 135 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Karol Rosa.
- Key Wins: Beat Ketlen Vieira, Marion Reneau, and Lina Lansberg.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Chelsea Chandler
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Julija Stoliarenko and a 3-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Josiane Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Santos by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -300
Charalampos Grigoriou vs Toshiomi Kazama
- Charalampos Grigoriou
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Toshiomi Kazama
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 2-2 wrestler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
The market thought Kazawa had 55 striking and 65 wrestling going into the Garrett Armfield fight, but the market was wrong. Kazawa got nowhere close to taking Armfield down and was out struck 40 to 15. Grigoriou’s wrestling proved to be a 60 in his fight with Chad Anheliger, but there’s no way his striking is above a 55 as he was out struck 68 to 21.
Chris’ Pick: Grigoriou by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Grigoriou -200
Karol Rosa vs Pannie Kianzad
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Joselyne Edwards and Vanessa Melo. Split decision over Lara Procopio. Majority decision over Lina Lansberg. Split decision over Yana Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Pannie Kianzad
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat Lina Lansberg, Alexis Davis, Sijara Eubanks, Bethe Correia, and Jessica-Rose Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Yana Santos out struck Rosa 63 to 48, leaving me with no choice but to downgrade her striking to a 65. And then. Rosa bounces back against Aldana, out strikes Aldana 204 to 145. Quite the turn around. Even possible Rosa’s striking could be as high as a 75 now.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rosa -300
Karl Williams vs Jhonata Diniz
- Karl Williams
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Beat Justin Tafa, Chase Sherman, Lukasz Brzeski, a 4-1 striker, and a 5-2 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jhonata Diniz
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Pretty sure Diniz’s wrestling is a 50 after seeing Lane take Diniz down and maintaining control on the ground for almost the entire round. This was only 4 months ago. I’m now convinced Williams’ wrestling is a 65. Was able to take Tafa down repeatedly. Got over 10 minutes of control time on the ground. If Lane could keep Diniz down, I’m pretty sure Williams can too.
Chris’ Pick: Williams by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Williams -300
Youssef Zalal vs Jarno Errens
- Youssef Zalal
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson.
- Key Draws: Fought Da’Mon Blackshear to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Billy Quarantillo and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Jarno Errens
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to William Gomis.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 23-7 fighter. Beat Steve Nguyen, a 9-2 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I ask myself, has Errens really elevated his striking to a 65 grade? But the reality is that even if Nguyen’s striking is a 55, Errens still out struck him 103 to 59. Total wipe out. I was totally blown away by how much better Zalal got when he returned for his 2nd stint with the UFC.
Chris’ Pick: Zalal by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zalal -225
Talita Alencar vs Stephanie Luciano
- Talita Alencar
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 5-0-1
- UFC Record: 1-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Stephanie Luciano to a draw.
- Key Wins: Split decision over Rayanne dos Santos.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Stephanie Luciano
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 5-1-1
- UFC Record: 0-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Talita Alencar to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
This is a rematch from their fight on the Contender where Luciano out struck 65 to 15. It’s a big gap partly because Alencar was out of gas in the second half of the fight. But also partly because Luciano’s striking is better than I thought. I see Luciano coming in with better
Chris’ Pick: Luciano by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Luciano -175