Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr
- Alex Pereira
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 4-0 at 205 lbs. 8-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jiri Prochazka twice, Jamahal Hill, Israel Adesanya, Sean Strickland, Andreas Michailidis and a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Bruno Silva. Split decision over Jan Blachowicz.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-6
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Chris Daukaus, Karl Roberson, Modestas Bukauskas, Paul Craig, and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders. Split decision over Dustin Jacoby.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Who knows how good Daukaus is at 205 lbs. Not sure what to take away from Rountree Jr’s 1st round KO there. But I know how good Jacoby is and he out struck Rountree Jr 116 to 80. But the Rountree Jr that showed up against Smith, I know for sure that’s a different dude. Easy 70 striking. It’s close to a 75. I also liked what I saw from Rountree Jr in the clinch against Smith, might have wrestling as high as a 70. Pereira should win here but Rountree Jr is a live underdog.
Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -175
Raquel Pennington vs Julianna Pena
- Raquel Pennington
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 15-6
- Key Wins: Submitted Macy Chiasson. Beat Mayra Bueno Silva,, Aspen Ladd, Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate and Marion Reneau. Split decision wins over Ketlen Vieira, Irene Aldana, and Bethe Correira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Amanda Nunes and Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
The first time Pena fought Nunes, I thought Pena would have to show up with 75 wresting to have a chance. To wear Nunes down, tire her out. And to everyone’s shock, Nunes gassed out hard and gave up by the end of the 2nd round. Most don’t recover from that. But Nunes shows up in shape. And Nunes wins the rematch, not too shocking. But the thing that did shock me was how she won, with better wrestling and better cardio than Pena. Which means Pena’s wrestling is definitely still a 70. Last thing that shocked me, because watching the fight, it was clear Nunes was going to win. But looking at the striking numbers, Pena out landed Nunes 59 to 57. So Pena’s striking is indeed a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Pena by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pena -250
Jose Aldo vs Mario Bautista
- Jose Aldo
- Age: 38
- UFC/WEC Record: 4-3 at 135 lbs. 21-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Jonathan Martinez, Rob Font, Marlon Vera, Urijah Faber, and Frankie Edgar.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Mario Bautista
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Miles Johns. Submitted Guido Cannetti, Benito Lopez, and Brian Kelleher. Beat Ricky Simon, Da’Mon Blackshear, a well rounded 9-3 fighter and a 7-1-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Bautista’s striking is actually really close to a 75. Amazingly, he out struck Simon 110 to 44 last time out.
Chris’ Pick: Aldo by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aldo -175
Roman Dolidze vs Kevin Holland
- Roman Dolidze
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-3 at 185 lbs. 7-3 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Kevin Holland
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 10-5 at 185 lbs. 13-7 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira, Jacare Souza, Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Michael Chiesa and Tim Means. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Holland by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Holland -175
Kayla Harrison vs Ketlen Vieira
- Kayla Harrison
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 17-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-1 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Aspen Ladd, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Ketlen Vieira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raquel Pennington.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sara McMann. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Miesha Tate, Sijara Eubanks, and Ashley Evans-Smith. Split decision over Holly Holm.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (75)
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Vieira’s wrestling has leveled up to a 75, but I could be wrong. It’s right on the bubble. Some might think Harrison has a top of the scale 80 grade wrestling tool, but I’m not sold on that yet. I think part of the reason Holm was dominated is because she’s 42 years old and now finally starting to regress. I also have to admit the 65 grade on Harrison’s striking is more of a projection and I could be under rating the tool. The thing that’s most interesting to me about this fight is Vieira can grapple and the ground might be a dangerous spot for Harrison.
Chris’ Pick: Vieira by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vieira -175
Stephen Thompson vs Joaquin Buckley
- Stephen Thompson
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 13-7-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
- Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Holland. Beat Jorge Masvidal, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Joaquin Buckley
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Andre Fialho, Antonio Arroyo, Jordan Wright, Impa Kasanganay, a 4-0 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, and an 8-2 grappler. Beat Nursulton Ruziboev, Alex Morono and a 9-2 wrestler. Split decision wins over Abdul Razak Alhassan and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Buckley elevated his wrestling to a 70 by collecting over 5 minutes of control time against Ruziboev. Buckley might want to wrestle with Thompson most of the fight, but I don’t think he’ll have the cardio to do that in high altitude.
Chris’ Pick: Thompson by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Thompson -125
Marina Rodriguez vs Iasmin Lucindo
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-4-2
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jessica Andrade and Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Michelle Waterson-Gomez, Amanda Ribas. Beat Mackenzie Dern, Michelle Waterson, and Tecia Torres. Split decision over Xiaonan Yan.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Iasmin Lucindo
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Brogan Walker and an 8-3 grappler. Split decision over Sarah Frota.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Lucindo’s striking is right in the bubble space between a 65 and a 70. It’s close. But for now, I’d say it’s closer to a 65. albeit on the higher end.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -200
Alexander Hernandez vs Austin Hubbard
- Alexander Hernandez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Damon Jackson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Beneil Dariush and Chris Greutzemacher. Beat Jim Miller, Oliver Aubin-Mercier, and Francisco Trinaldo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Austin Hubbard
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Eric Wisely.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Both guys train in Denver, so neither seems to have an advantage cardio wise. Pretty sure Hubbard’s striking is a 60 after his fight with Figlak. Wrestling is probably a 60, but it could be as low as a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -250
Cesar Almeida vs Ihor Potieria
- Cesar Almeida
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Roman Kopylov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dylan Budka. Beat a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Ihor Potieria
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Shogun Rua and an 8-0 striker. Beat Robert Bryczek.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I really thought Roman Kopylov’s striking was a 70 grade. But I think I was too high on the tool and it’s actually a 65. And I know 100% for sure it’s not lower than a 65. That said, Almeida out struck Kopylov 51 to 32. For what it’s worth, the market had Potieria’s striking as a 60 going into his last fight with Michel Pereira. I still have it graded as a 65, but I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -225
Ryan Spann vs Ovince St Preux
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Reyes, Misha Cirkunov, and Lil’ Nog. Submitted Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ovince St Preux
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 15-9 at light heavyweight. 14-11 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Ben Rothwell and Volkan Oezdemir.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alonzo Menifield, Corey Anderson, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk, Tyson Pedro, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, and Yushin Okami. Split decision wins over Kennedy Nzechukwu and Shogun Rua.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I wasn’t the only one who thought Nzechukwu would destroy St Preux as Nzechukwu closed as a -675 favorite. Sometimes St Preux shows up with 60 tools, sometimes 65 tools, very inconsistent, but he definitely showed 65 tools as he out struck Nzechukwu 131 to 93. Probably the biggest upset of the year, not just because St Preux won but also because of how lopsided it was.
Chris’ Pick: St Preux by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: St Preux -125
Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington
- Carla Esparza
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Submitted Angela Hill. Knocked out Xiaonan Yan. Beat Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Tecia Torres by majority decision. Beat Alexa Grasso. Split decision wins over Rose Namajunas and Marina Rodriguez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Tecia Pennington
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 10-9
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern.
- Key Wins: Beat Angela Hill, Sam Hughes, Michelle Waterson, and Brianna van Buren.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
This fight will be interesting in the sense that normally, I’d say Esparza would have the cardio to wrestle all 3 rounds to win. But one, this fight’s in high altitude. And two, this is Esparza’s retirement fight. Pennington’s wrestling is also close to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Pennington by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pennington -200
Tim Means vs Court McGee
- Tim Means
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 13-11 at 170 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Max Griffin.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Fialho. Beat Nicholas Dalby, Mike Perry, and Laureano Staropoli.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Court McGee
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 10-12
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dhiego Lima. Lost to Ben Saunders.
- Key Wins: Beat Ramiz Brahimaj and Claudio Silva.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
McGee’s striking with Alex Morono was close to equal, but I highly doubt McGee is improving at 39 years of age and 22 UFC fights in. More than likely, Morono is starting to regress. But McGee has been knocked out in 2 of his last 3 fights and don’t see his chin holding up here.
Chris’ Pick: Means by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Means -250