Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic
- Jon Jones
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 1-0 at heavyweight. 21-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alexander Gustafsson. Submitted Ciryl Gane, Lyoto Machida and Rampage Jackson. Beat Dominick Reyes, Anthony Smith, Daniel Cormier, and Glover Teixeira. Split decision over Thiago Santos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Stipe Miocic
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 14-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Cormier, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: wrestling (70)
Even though Miocic hasn’t fought for over 3 years, Jones is just as rusty as he’s only had 2 minutes of cage time in almost the last 5 years. So obviously the Gane fight didn’t go long, so the last couple Jones fights we have to go off of was against Reyes and Santos where Jones showed regressed 70 striking, nearly losing both of those fights. But people forget those because Jones is coming off that quick Gane win. Miocic looked fine in his last fight with Ngannou. Striking was close to equal. No big regression. Before that, he won two in a row against Cormier.
Chris’ Pick: Miocic by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Miocic -250
Charles Oliveira vs Michael Chandler
- Charles Oliveira
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 22-10
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Armen Tsarukyan.
- Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Tony Ferguson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Michael Chandler
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
- Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out Tony Ferguson, Dan Hooker, a well rounded 14-1 fighter, and a 14-3 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chandler was arguably up 2 rounds to 0 against Dustin Poirier before he started to run out of gas in the 3rd round and got choked out. Chandler normally doesn’t use his offensive wrestling that much but showed it’s close to a 75.
Chris’ Pick: Oliveira by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Oliveira -135
Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig
- Bo Nickal
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Jamie Pickett, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Valentine Woodburn.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Paul Craig
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 1-2 at 185 lbs. 9-8-1 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Muniz, Jamahal Hill, and Shogun Rua. Submitted Nikita Krylov, Kennedy Nzechukwu, and Magomed Ankalaev.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Possible that Nickal’s wrestling is up to a 75 after the Brundage fight, but I think it’s currently closer to a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Nickal by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nickal -200
Karine Silva vs Viviane Araujo
- Karine Silva
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Maryna Moroz, Ketlen Souza, Poliana Botelho, a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Ariane da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Viviane Araujo
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Talita Bernardo. Beat Jennifer Maia, Andrea Lee, Roxanne Modefferi, Montana de la Rosa, and Alexis Davis.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Aided by Natalia Silva’s fight with Jessica Andrade, we now know Silva has legit 75 striking. And. Going back to Silva’s fight with Araujo, striking was almost equal the first 2 rounds. I think Silva leveled up in the Andrade fight. Know Silva had at least 70 striking in the Araujo fight. So I’m confident Araujo’s striking is a 70. And also with how she picked up 6 minutes of control time on the fence, her wrestling is still a 70 as well.
Chris’ Pick: Araujo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Araujo -225
James Llontop vs Mauricio Ruffy
- James Llontop
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Slava Borshchev.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Malik Lewis and a well rounded 8-1-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Mauricio Ruffy
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, Ronys Torres, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I know absolutely for sure that Nazim Sadykhov’s striking is at least a 60 grade. No way it’s worse than that. Borshchev out struck him 141 to 66. So Borshchev absolutely has 70 striking. The market agreed as Borshchev closed a -245 favorite against Llontop. But. The fight was razor close as Borshchev outlanded Llontop by just one, 92-91. Thus, Llontop’s striking is a 70 for me. Though the 65 wrestling grade has more projection baked in.
Chris’ Pick: Llontop by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Llontop -125
Jonathan Martinez vs Marcus McGhee
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Adrian Yanez, Cub Swanson, Frankie Saenz, and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Said Nurmagomedov, Vince Morales, Alejandro Perez, Thomas Almeida, and Zviad Lavishvili.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Marcus McGhee
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 9-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Journey Newson. Knocked out Gaston Bolanos, JP Buys, and a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Martinez -325
Jim Miller vs Damon Jackson
- Jim Miller
- Age: 41
- UFC Record: 26-17
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nik Motta. Submitted Gabriel Benitez, Donald Cerrone, Roosevelt Roberts, and Clay Guida.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Damon Jackson
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pat Sabatini and a 12-3 grappler. Submitted Mirsad Bektic, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, and a 20-3 grappler. Split decision over Alexander Hernandez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Jackson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jackson -200
David Onama vs Roberto Romero
- David Onama
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Nate Landwehr.
- Key Wins: Submitted Garrett Armfield. Knocked out Gabriel Santos, a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat Jonathan Pearce and Gabriel Benitez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Roberto Romero
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-3-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 10-2 grappler. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Onama leveled up in his last fight with Pearce, showing off 70 wrestling. Striking is really close to a 70 as well.
Chris’ Pick: Onama by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Onama -500
Marcin Tybura vs Jhonata Diniz
- Marcin Tybura
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 11-8
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris and Greg Hardy. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Blagoi Ivanov, Andrei Arlovski, and Sergei Spivac. Majority decision over Alexandr Romanov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Jhonata Diniz
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane and a 7-1 striker. Beat Karl Williams.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s been recently revealed that Austen Lane has very good wrestling. He was able to take Diniz down and control him on the ground. So I shouldn’t have graded Diniz’s wrestling a 50. But then Diniz levels up even more to stuff Williams’ take downs for most of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Tybura by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tybura -200
Mickey Gall vs Ramiz Brahimaj
- Mickey Gall
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Diego Sanchez. Lost to Mike Perry
- Key Wins: Submitted Sage Northcutt.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ramiz Brahimaj
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 2-3
- Key Losses: Lost to an 8-3 grappler and a 10-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sasha Palatnikov and a 9-3 striker.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Gall was coming off a 2 year lay off and came back with big time improvements against Basil Hafez. Brahimaj also showed some improvement in his grappling, despite losing to Themba Gorimbo, but not enough for me to upgrade his grappling to a 65, yet.
Chris’ Pick: Gall by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gall -350
Oban Elliott vs Bassil Hafez
- Oban Elliott
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Beat Preston Parsons, Valentine Woodburn and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 17-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Bassil Hafez
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 9-4-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jack Della Maddalena.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-5 grappler. Submitted an 8-0 striker. Beat Mickey Gall. Split decision over Anthony Ivy.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Hafez by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hafez -250
Veronica Hardy vs Edaurda Moura
- Veronica Hardy
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat JJ Aldrich and Juliana Miller. Split decision over Jamey Lyn Horth.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Eduarda Moura
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Denise Gomes.
- Key WIns: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo and a 6-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Moura lost her last fight because she gassed out towards the end of the 2nd round against Denise Gomes. Which was largely because she had a bad weight cut, but here, she makes her flyweight debut. Hardy’s striking is close to a 65 for me, but not quite there.
Chris’ Pick: Moura by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moura -250