Alexandre Pantoja vs Kai Asakura
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Steve Erceg, Brandon Moreno, and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Kai Asakura
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 21-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Kyoji Horiguchi and Manel Kape. Lost to a 24-5 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Heili Alateng and a 29-4 striker. Beat Topnoi Kiwram. Split decision over Manel Kape.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Although Asakura is making his UFC debut, he has fought high level competition in Japan. But most interesting is the fact he beat bantamweights, fighters bigger than he was. He’s now cutting down to flyweight where his tools should play up even more. But I will admit there’s a bunch of projection baked in and I could be over rating him a tad.
Chris’ Pick: Asakura by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Asakura -125
Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry
- Shavkat Rakhmonov
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, a 4-1 grappler, a 6-1-2 wrestler, a well rounded 28-6 fighter, and an 11-2 striker. Submitted Stephen Thompson, Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Michel Prazares, Alex Oliveira, Jun Yong Park, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Michael Page, Neil Magny, Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter. Split decision over Geoff Neal.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Machado Garry by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Machado Garry -250
Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov 2
- Ciryl Gane
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sergei Spivac, Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, and Junior dos Santos. Beat Alexander Volkov, Jairzinho Rozenstruik, and Tanner Boser.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 12-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Sergei Pavlovich, Marcin Tybura, and Greg Hardy.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Gane leveled up even more last time out with Spivac, showing off improved 70 wrestling. And out struck Spivac by an absurd 105 to 11 clip. Top of the scale 80 grade. Volkov vs Pavlovich was an interesting fight. Pavlovich was forced to fight for more than a few minutes and Volkov out landed him 83 to 46. Hard to digest those numbers. Maybe Pavlovich is a smidge over rated.
Chris’ Pick: Gane by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gane -135
Bryce Mitchell vs Kron Gracie
- Bryce Mitchell
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Sayles. Beat Dan Ige, Edson Barboza, Andre Fili, Charles Rosa, and Bobby Moffett.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Kron Gracie
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Caceres.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Gracie is very interesting. He fought Cub Swanson and Swanson beat him, out striking him 110 to 74. Clear cut 60 striking for Gracie. And yes, on the surface Gracie didn’t look great against Jourdain either. He pulled guard a lot. But the first 2 rounds, the striking was 22 to 27, close to equal. I think Gracie gassed out in the 3rd round and Jourdain pulled away. So the numbers say Gracie improved on the feet. Yes, Mitchell was knocked out in his last fight, pretty quickly. But I still believe his striking is a 70. Striking with Ige was close to equal. But also, believe it or not, Mitchell out struck Ilia Topuria 34 to 29.
Chris’ Pick: Mitchell by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mitchell -400
Nate Landwehr vs Doo Ho Choi
- Nate Landwehr
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Austin Lingo and Ludovit Klein. Knocked out Jamall Emmers, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a 13-2 grappler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter. Beat Darren Elkins, a 6-2 grappler, a 9-2 grappler, and a 15-3 grappler (twice). Majority decision over David Onama.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Doo Ho Choi
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3-1
- Key Draws: Fought Kyle Nelson to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bill Algeo, Thiago Tavares and Sam Siscilia.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Algeo closed as a -185 favorite over Choi. I agreed with it. But it appears Choi leveled up. Don’t think Algeo regressed all of a sudden.
Chris’ Pick: Choi by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Choi -125
Dominick Reyes vs Anthony Smith
- Dominick Reyes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Jacoby, Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Split decision over Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Anthony Smith
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 7-7 at 205 lbs. 11-10 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Vitor Petrino, Devin Clark, Alexander Gustafsson, and Volkan Oezdemir. Knocked out Jimmy Crute and Shogun Rua. Split decision over Ryan Spann.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Really small sample size, but when I see Reyes out striking a legit 70 striker in Jacoby 16 to 6, it reminds me of the Reyes that beat Jon Jones.
Chris’ Pick: Reyes by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Reyes -225
Themba Gorimbo vs Vicente Luque
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pete Rodriguez. Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Niko Price, Ramiz Brahimaj, Takashi Sato and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 15-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Michael Chiesa and Tyron Woodley. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
The 70 grade for Gorimbo’s power is more of a projection, based on what he’s shown in his last few fights. Could be a 60 though. Amazingly, Gorimbo out struck Price 43 to 11 for an easy 70 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Gorimbo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gorimbo -250
Aljamain Sterling vs Movsar Evloev
- Aljamain Sterling
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 16-4
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Calvin Kattar, Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision wins over Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Movsar Evloev
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Arnold Allen, Diego Lopes, Dan Ige, Hakeem Dawodu, Mike Grundy, Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler. Split decision win over Nik Lentz.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Chris’ Pick: Sterling by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sterling -250
Bryan Battle vs Randy Brown
- Bryan Battle
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Jousset, Gabe Green, and Takashi Sato. Submitted AJ Fletcher and a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Tresean Gore.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Randy Brown
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Warlley Alves. Knocked out Muslim Salikhov and Bryan Barbarena. Beat Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, Wellington Turman, Francisco Trinaldo, and Mickey Gall. Split decision over Khaos Williams.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
I think Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos has 70 wrestling. That’s my best explanation as to why Zaleski dos Santos was able to take Brown down. And why Brown was able to out strike Zaleski dos Santos 61 to 24.
Chris’ Pick: Battle by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Battle -135
Chris Weidman vs Eryk Anders
- Chris Weidman
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 12-6 UFC at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort. Submitted Kelvin Gastelum. Beat Bruno Silva, Omari Akhmedov and Lyoto Machida.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 37
- UFC Record: 8-6 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jun Yong Park, Lyoto Machida, and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Daukaus and Rafael Natal. Beat Jamie Pickett, Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Weidman by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Weidman -350
Joshua Van vs Cody Durden
- Joshua Van
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Cody Durden
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out JP Buys and a 6-2 grappler. Submitted Matt Schnell and a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Jake Hadley, Charles Johnson, Carlos Mota, and Qileng Aori.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Van by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Van -135
Michael Chiesa vs Max Griffin
- Michael Chiesa
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 170 lbs. 12-7 overall.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tony Ferguson and Beneil Dariush. Beat Neil Magny and Rafael dos Anjos.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Max Griffin
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 8-9
- Key Losses: Lost to Curtis Millender. Lost split decisions to Neil Magny, Alex Oliveira, and Thiago Alves.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kenan Song. Beat Mike Perry. Split decision wins over Jeremiah Wells and Tim Means.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Griffin by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Griffin -175
Chase Hooper vs Clay Guida
- Chase Hooper
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 3-0 at 155 lbs. 7-3 overall.
- Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
- Key Wins: Submitted Slava Borshchev and Jordan Leavitt. Knocked out Felipe Colares and Daniel Teymur. Beat Nick Fiore and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Clay Guida
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 18-17
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Key Wins: Beat Michael Johnson. Split decision wins over Scott Holtzman and Mark O. Madsen.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Slava Borshchev closed as a -135 favorite and I agreed with the number. But Hooper completely out classed him on the ground. So what happened? Likely, everybody was over valuing the skills of Nazim Sadykhov, put too much stock in what Borshchev did with Sadykhov.
Chris’ Pick: Hooper by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hooper -600
Kennedy Nzechukwu vs Lukasz Brzeski
- Kennedy Nzechukwu
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-5 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nicolae Negumereanu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Barnett, Ion Cutelaba, Karl Roberson, Danilo Marques, and Carlos Ulberg. Submitted Devin Clark.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Lukasz Brzeski
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 1-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Martin Buday.
- Key Draws: Fought an 18-10 striker to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Beat Valter Walker and a 20-5 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite getting knocked out by Mick Parkin, I still think his striking is a 65. I could be wrong, but I think the tool is more 65 than a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Nzechukwu by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nzechukwu -250