Walker vs Zhang, Sterling vs Ortega, Pavlovich vs Cortes-Acosta Fight Picks – August 23, 2025

Johnny Walker vs Mingyang Zhang

• Johnny Walker
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 8-5
• Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba. Beat Anthony Smith.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Zhang Mingyang
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 18-6
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Smith, Brendson Ribeiro, a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

I don’t think Walker’s skills have regressed yet, but Walker has been knocked out two fights in a row and it’s hard to trust his chin.

Chris’ Pick: Zhang by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Zhang -125

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Aljamain Sterling vs Brian Ortega

• Aljamain Sterling
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 16-5
• Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Bryan Caraway.
• Key Wins: Submitted Cory Sandhagen and Cody Stamann. Beat Calvin Kattar, Pedro Munhoz, Jimmie Rivera, and Brett Johns. Split decision wins over Henry Cejudo and Petr Yan.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Brian Ortega
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 8-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Yair Rodriguez, Renato Moicano, and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar. Beat The Korean Zombie.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Sterling by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sterling -200

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Waldo Acosta Cortes

• Sergei Pavlovich
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene. Beat Jairzinho Rozenstruik.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Waldo Cortes-Acosta
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 8-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Ryan Spann, Lukasz Brzeski, a 5-0 striker, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Serghei Spivac, Robelis Despagne, Andre Arlovski, Chase Sherman, and Jared Vanderaa.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

For sure Cortes-Acosta has improved his striking to a 70 as he out struck Spivac 105 to 45.

Chris’ Pick: Pavlovich by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pavlovich -200

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Sumudaerji vs Kevin Borjas

• Sumudaerji
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 4-4
• Key Losses: Submitted by Louis Smolka and a 10-4 grappler.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Malcolm Gordon, a well rounded 5-0-1 fighter, and a 4-0 grappler. Beat Zarrukh Adashev. Split decision over Mitch Raposo.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Kevin Borjas
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 10-3
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Beat Ronaldo Rodriguez and an 11-2 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Sumudaerji by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Sumudaerji -175

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Nueraji Taiyilake vs Kiefer Crosbie

• Nueraji Taiyilake
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 11-1
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Kiefer Crosbie
• Age: 35
• Pro Record: 10-5
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 16-11 striker.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Oliveira. Beat a 5-2 striker. Split decision over a 6-2 wrestler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Crosbie by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Crosbie -225

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Maheshate vs Gauge Young

• Maheshate
• Age: 25
• UFC Record: 3-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out Steve Garcia. Beat a 7-0 striker. Split decision over Gabriel Benitez.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

• Gauge Young
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 9-3
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: a little above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Maheshate is making progress in improving his tools. Striking looks like a 60 now. And slight chance his wrestling could be a 60 now also, but it’s more of a projection as we haven’t see him use it that much lately.

Chris’ Pick: Young by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Young -200

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Lone’er Kavanagh vs Charles Johnson

• Lone’er Kavanagh
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 9-0
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Felipe dos Santos, Jose Ochoa, and a 6-0 striker.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Charles Johnson
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 6-5
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ode Osbourne.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joshua Van, Jimmy Flick and a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Sumudaerji, Jake Hadley and Azat Maksum. Split decision wins over Zhulgas Zhumagulov, a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Kavanagh by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kavanagh -300

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Rongzhu vs Austin Hubbard

• Rongzhu
• Age: 25
• UFC Record: 5-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted Shin Haraguchi and a 19-4 grappler. Beat Kody Steele and Sang Wook Kim.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Austin Hubbard
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 4-7
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to MarQuel Mederos and Alexander Hernandez.
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a well rounded 11-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

If there was any doubt that Rongzhu’s striking was a 65, he squashed it in his last fight out striking hyped up Kody Steele 125 to 58. I’d even say it’s possible Rongzhu’s striking could have elevated to a 70 grade.

Chris’ Pick: Rongzhu by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rongzhu -300

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Michel Pereira vs Kyle Daukaus

• Michel Pereira
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 3-2 at 185 lbs. 10-4 overall.
• Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski, Danny Roberts. Submitted Ihor Potieria, Michel Oleksiejczuk and an 8-2 striker. Beat Andre Fialho, Niko Price, and Khaos Williams. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Kyle Daukaus
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 2-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Jamie Pickett and a 12-2 grappler. Beat Dustin Stoltzfus and an 8-1 wrestler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

It was just 3 years ago that Daukaus closed as a -245 favorite over Roman Dolidze. So despite Daukaus’ UFC record, he has skills.

Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pereira -250

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Zha Yi vs Westin Wilson

• Zha Yi
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 5-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jeong Yeong Lee.
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Submitted Kaiwen Li and a well rounded 9-1 fighter. Beat Sang Won Kim. Split decision wins over a 13-5 striker and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

• Westin Wilson
• Age: 36
• Pro Record: 17-9
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 wrestler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Yi by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Yi -225

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SuYoung You vs Long Xiao

• SuYoung You
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 15-3
• UFC Record: 4-0
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 19-5 fighter. Beat AJ Cunningham, Jieleyisi Baergeng. Split decision over Zhawupasi Daermisi.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Xiao Long
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 3-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chang Ho Lee.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Quang Le. Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 10-3 grappler. Majority decision over a 13-1 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: You by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: You -300

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Diyar Nurgozhay vs Uran Satybaldiev

• Diyar Nurkozhay
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 10-1
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2-1 fighter. Beat a 12-3 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Uran Satybaldiev
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Submitted a 9-2 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Nurkozhay by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nurgozhay -125