Alexander Volkov vs Tom Aspinall
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy.
- Tools: Volkov has plus striking (70) and plus wrestling (70).
- Tom Aspinall
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Knocked out Serghei Spivac, Jake Collier, and a 6-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Aspinall has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
Volkov had a surprisingly lackluster performance last time out. He won. He beat Tybura. But the striking was waaaay closer than anticipated. Like 54 to 47. So, I can believe Tybura has 60 striking. But Volkov looked like he had 65 striking. Not his best fight. Before the Tybura fight, he did okay against Ciryl Gane. Kept things close the first half of the fight until Gane pulled away. I’ve seen so many Volkov fights, I have to keep his striking as a 70 for now and maybe look at the Tybura fight as an outlier. Meanwhile, Aspinall looks like he’s on the road to eventually getting a title shot at some point in the next couple years. Possible 75 striking. Want to know how dominant he was against Spivac? Try 7 distance significant strikes to 0. That’s right. Spivac literally didn’t touch Aspinall. I wasn’t sure where Aspinall’s wrestling was at but then he fought Spivac. Stuffed two take downs. Okay, I’m sold. 65 wrestling. So the line opens with Volkov as a -140 favorite. I’m not too surprised. Volkov’s wrestling is probably better. But I’m picking Aspinall because 1) There’s a very real chance he has 75 striking and will out land Volkov. And 2) I can’t get that flat Tybura fight out of my mind. I think a fair price for Aspinall is -125.
Chris’ Pick: Aspinall by 2nd round knockout.
Dan Hooker vs Arnold Allen
- Dan Hooker
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-4 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta and Nasrat Haqparast. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
- Tools: Hooker has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Arnold Allen
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Nik Lentz, and Gilbert Melendez. Split decision over Makwan Amirkhani.
- Tools: Allen has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Hooker might have lost 3 out of his last 4 fights. But there’s no shame in those L’s. I very close decision loss to Dustin Poirier. Got blitzed and knocked out by Michael Chandler. Who knows how that fight would’ve went had it gone longer. KOs happen sometimes. And then he fought Islam Makhachev on a couple weeks notice. All those guys are in the top 5 of the division. But now Hooker moves back down to 145 lbs. And I still have him with 70 striking and wrestling. The only question is how well does his chin hold up from the cut? Well, he shouldn’t have to worry about that too much as Allen only has 55 power. Despite Allen’s W over Yusuff on his record, I think the judges clearly got that decision wrong. Yusuff out struck Allen 29 to 16. So I’m confident where I’m grading Allen. Hooker should have a monster power advantage. And the oddsmakers are out of their minds pricing this as a pick em. I’d price Hooker at -325. What a bargain.
Chris’ Pick: Hooker by 2nd round knockout.
Paddy Pimblett vs Kazula Vargas
- Paddy Pimblett
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-3
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-0 grappler, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a 10-2 grappler, and an 8-2 wrestler. Knocked out Luigi Vendramini and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Julian Erosa.
- Tools: Pimblett has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Kazula Vargas
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-1 striker. Beat Zhu Rong and a 6-2 striker.
- Tools: Vargas has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Vargas might look like a sacrificial lamb. But I can promise you he’s not, despite the fact that Pimblett has opened as a -345 favorite. That’s a bit high. I think Pimblett should be closer to -250. Yes, Pimblett’s knockout over Vendramini was spectacular. But let’s not forget Pimblett got rocked twice in that fight. And midway through the 1st round, the striking was close. But Pimblett just overwhelmed Vendramini with his pace and landed an astounding 47 significant strikes in the 1st round. That’s crazy. Vargas entered his matchup with Zhu Rong as a +190 underdog. So he’s been here before. And he was so impressive, I was actually close to grading Vargas’ striking a 65. Could Pimblett take Vargas down? Probably. Could he keep him there? Probably not. Catch Vargas in a submission? Maybe. Another possible way to win for Pimblett. Look, I’m picking Pimblett. I’m probably going to bet him, but it’ll be a small one, just a sprinkle.
Chris’ Pick: Pimblett by decision.
Gunnar Nelson vs Takashi Sato
- Gunnar Nelson
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-5
- Key Wins: Submitted Alex Oliveira and Alan Jouban.
- Tools: Nelson has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Takashi Sato
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 13-10 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Sato has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This is a soft landing for Nelson who hasn’t fought in two and a half years. His last two fights? Lost to Leon Edwards by split decision. Lost 29-28 to Gilbert Burns in a really close fight. Edged out by two top 5 guys. Clearly, the UFC wants Nelson to get a big win for him to reintroduce himself. Sato hasn’t fought in a year and a half. I think his last fight with Baeza really shows off where he’s at. I can’t emphasize enough the level of competition Nelson is used to going against and with all due respect to Sato, this is a massive step down. The only possible threat Sato has is that maybe his striking is a 60. Maybe he has more power than Nelson. But other than that, Nelson should roll. Odds aren’t out yet but I’d have Nelson at -500.
Chris’ Pick: Nelson by 1st round submission.
Molly McCann vs Luana Carolina
- Molly McCann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Beat Ji Yeon Kim and Ariane Lipski.
- Tools: McCann has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Luana Carolina
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-2 striker and a 7-0 wrestler. Split decision over Poliana Botelho.
- Tools: Carolina has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
I have both fighters graded exactly the same. Although Carolina’s wrestling might be a 60 after she stuffed take downs from Loopy Godinez, although Godinez fought above her normal weight class at 125 lbs. Not that it makes much difference in the out come of the fight. I honestly have no idea who wins this fight. McCann has looked better. But maybe Carolina took a step forward in her last fight. Total pick em, coin flip fight.
Chris’ Pick: McCann by split decision.
Jai Herbert vs Ilia Topuria
- Jai Herbert
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Francisco Trinaldo.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khama Worthy, an 8-2 grappler, a 9-3 grappler, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Tools: Herbert has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 11-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-1 grappler and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Youssef Zalal.
- Tools: Topuria has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
This fight is a little more interesting in the sense that Topuria is making his 155 lb. debut. Will he be healthier? Perform better? Will he be smaller? Not able to take Herbert down as easily? We’ll see. The grappling will decide how close this fight is. Renato Moicano showed Herbert’s wrestling to be a 55. So I think Topuria will be able to take him down and control him. But if not, the fight could be close on the feet. I’d price Topuria at -175 because of the question marks of the new weight class. Odds aren’t out yet, but I plan on betting on Topuria as long as he’s not too heavy.
Chris’ Pick: Topuria by 2nd round submission.
Makwan Amirkhani vs Mike Grundy
- Makwan Amirkhani
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Lost to Kamuela Kirk. Lost a split decision to Arnold Allen.
- Key Wins: Submitted Danny Henry and Chris Fishgold.
- Tools: Amirkhani has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Mike Grundy
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lando Vannata.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nad Narimani. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler and a 12-1 grappler. Beat a 12-2 wrestler and a 16-4 grappler.
- Tools: Grundy has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
I think Grundy’s last fight with Lando Vannata really showed where his striking is at. I had Vannata graded with 60 striking going into that fight. And Vannata out landed Grundy by a close to 3 to 1 clip. Just ignore the “split decision” part of the decision. It was lopsided. And the lack of striking will give Grundy problems with Amirkhani, who also has 60 striking. Amirkhani is also a better grappler than Vannata and I expect Amirkhani to cruise here. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’d price Amirkhani at -425.
Chris’ Pick: Amirkhani by decision.
Shamil Abdurakhimov vs Sergei Pavlovich
- Shamil Abdurakhimov
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marcin Tybura.
- Tools: Abdurakhimov has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maurice Greene.
- Tools: Pavlovich has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
I have both guys graded exactly the same, so I have to make this pick based on projection. And the obvious first thing to look at is the gap in age. 11 year difference! Pavlovich more likely to come in improved. Abdurakhimov more likely to regress. For me, total coin flip fight. But. The line opens with Pavlovich as a -275. Which means oddsmakers either think Pavlovich has 70 striking or Abdurakhimov has 60 striking. I disagree. I’ve seen no data that reflects that. Pavlovich’s last fight was with Greene and I have Greene as a 65 striker. Striking in that fight was close to equal. Abdurakhimov’s last fight with Chris Daukaus, the public probably looks at the end result. Daukaus knocking him out. But KOs happen. Especially at heavyweight. And up to that point, Abdurakhimov out landed Daukaus 22 to 18. He’s definitely a 65 striker. So yeah, Abdurakhimov has very solid value at +220. But I’m going to pick Pavlovich because he’s more likely to be improved entering the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Pavlovich by 1st round knockout.
Nikita Krylov vs Paul Craig
- Nikita Krylov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Walt Harris at heavyweight. Also knocked out Ed Herman. Submitted Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Francimar Barroso, and Ovince St. Preux.
- Tools: Krylov has plus striking (70) and near plus grappling (65).
- Paul Craig
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamahal Hill and Shogun Rua. Submitted Kennedy Nzechukwu and Gahdzhimurad Antigulov.
- Tools: Craig has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has plus grappling (70).
This could be a repeat of the same type of fight Craig was in with Hill. He’s in there with a guy with better striking. A guy Craig won’t easily be able to keep down and control. Sure, he could get the submission. But Krylov should learn watching the Hill fight to not play in Craig’s guard. I’m not planning on betting this fight though because I’m not completely sure where Craig’s striking is at. I think it’s a 65, but I’m not confident. I do know Krylov has more power. I’m confident in where I graded Krylov. His striking with Magomed Ankalaev was close to equal. Back when I think Ankalaev’s striking was a 70. I’d have Krylov at -150. He’s opened around -175. That’s fair. But this fight could go either way.
Chris’ Pick: Krylov by 2nd round knockout.
Jack Shore vs Timur Valiev
- Jack Shore
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 12-3 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, and a 10-3 wrestler. Knocked out a 7-0 striker. Beat Liudvik Sholinian. Split decision over Hunter Azure.
- Tools: Shore has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Timur Valiev
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 18-2
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Guttierez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a well rounded 19-2 fighter. Submitted a 25-5 striker. Beat Chris Guttierez, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a 19-2 wrestler, and a 15-5 wrestler. Majority decision win over Raoni Barcelos.
- Tools: Valiev has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
Really close fight. No way I’m betting it. Shore looked like he improved his striking when he out landed his last opponent Sholinian by an amazing 4 to 1 clip. Before that, he beat Azure by split decision and the striking was close to equal. It’s possible his striking is a 65, but I have it at a 60 for now. And Valiev is coming off the biggest win of his young career over Barcelos. Valiev did land more than more than Barcelos. Not enough for me to give him a 70 grade, but it’s close. So as you can see, I think Valiev probably has the better striking, but I’m shaky on the grades and it’s also possible it could be a coin flip on who the judges give it to. Odds aren’t out yet, but I’m price Valiev at -175.
Chris’ Pick: Valiev by decision.
Cory McKenna vs Elise Reed
- Cory McKenna
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 5-1 fighter when she was 18 years old.
- Key Wins: Beat Kay Hansen and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 3-0 grappler.
- Tools: McKenna has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has above average grappling (60).
- Elise Reed
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 4-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: Reed has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).
The line isn’t out yet, but I have a feeling McKenna will be a decent favorite against Reed. People will see the W on McKenna’s record over Hansen. They’ll see Reed got steamrolled in her UFC debut. Knocked out in less than 4 minutes. But if you look underneath the hood, Reed fought a 70 wrestler in Eubanks. No shame in losing like that. History has shown lots of talented fighters bouncing back in their sophomore UFC fight. I would price this fight as a pick em just in case I’m grading Reed a little higher than I should be. But on paper, the difference should be Reed having a lot more power in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Reed by split decision.
Muhammad Mokaev vs Cody Durden
- Muhammad Mokaev
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Tools: Mokaev has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Cody Durden
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-1-1
- Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. Beat Qileng Aori.
- Tools: Durden has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
This fight is impossible for me to bet on because there’s not a lot of footage out there with Mokaev. There’s a lot of hype. But me grading him with well rounded 60 tools is an educated projection. Qileng Aori’s fight with Jeffrey Molina has aged really well. And his skill level has proven Durden has 60 striking and 60 wrestling. So I have both graded identical. Projection wise, a lot of industry insiders are saying that Mokaev is an elite prospect. So if anyone is likely to come into this fight with any 65 tools, it’s probably going to be Mokaev. I would price Mokaev at -135.
Chris’ Pick: Mokaev by decision.