Joseph Pyfer vs Osman Diaz
- Joseph Pyfer
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Osman DIaz
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-2 striker. Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
The fight only lasted a little over 4 minutes. But in that span of time against Dustin Stoltzfus, Pyfer was able to show he had better wrestling. Current day, I have Stoltzfus’ wrestling as a 65 grade. So even if I’m being conservative and saying that Stoltzfus had 60 wrestling back in the Pyfer fight, that still means Pyfer has 65 wrestling. The striking in that fight was close to equal. Now, it’s possible Pyfer’s striking and power could be 55’s. It’s possible, but not likely, his wrestling could just be a 60. But that’ll be enough to get it done against Diaz, who I’m not that impressed with. Diaz was actually the betting underdog going into his last fight with a 12-5 grappler. Diaz was able to keep the fight on the feet, but the striking was equal. I thought DIaz’s opponent had 50 striking and he hurt Diaz a few times in the fight. I don’t see any path for Diaz to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Pyfer by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Pyfer -350
Farid Basharat vs Willian Souza
- Farid Basharat
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Willian Souza
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-2 striker and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Basharat took on a well rounded 6-4 fighter last time out. No way his opponent had better than 45 striking. And Basharat did out strike him but the performance wasn’t without it’s flaws as Basharat got knocked down in the 1st round. So I’m decently confident in Basharat with 50 striking and likely has 55 grappling. Souza is tall and lean. Took on a well rounded 5-1 fighter last time out. Souza used his reach. I’m pretty sure Souza’s wrestling is a 55 but it’s possible it could be a 50. His striking is definitely a 60 with how he was defensively. Knocked his opponent out in the beginning of the 2nd round. Likely a stand up fight where Souza’s striking has margin to win.
Chris’ Pick: Guadalupe by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Souza -200
Anton Turkalj vs Acacio dos Santos
- Anton Turkalj
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Acacio dos Santos
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 14-4
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a 14-5 striker. Split decision win over Matheus Scheffel.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Even though the fight took place back in 2019, I still think the dos Santos vs Scheffel fight was a good measuring stick in terms of where dos Santos’ skills are at. And I wasn’t impressed. Striking was more a 55 than a 50. Cardio wasn’t great. Wrestling was worse than I thought, more of a 50. I thought Scheffel won the fight but 2 of the 3 judges gave it to Scheffel. There’s not much video out there on Turkalj, so my grades might be off by a tad. Like if Turkalj’s striking is closer to a 55, than the fight could be close. But I think the biggest differentiator in the fight will be Turkalj having a monster power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Turkalj by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Turkalj -200
Dennis Buzukja vs Kaleio Romero
- Dennis Buzukja
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Kaleio Romero
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: average (50)
I wasn’t that impressed watching Romero take on a 2-2 fighter. I will give Romero credit for being relentless with the take downs, but the opponent he took on couldn’t have had better than 45 tools. Romero edged him out on the feet, did get a few take downs but the opponent was able to get right back up. But before the fight I watched, Romero got knocked out by a well rounded 11-3 fighter. And Romero doesn’t have a single quality win on his resume. All wins over tomato cans. And turns out that Melsik Baghdasaryan is really good. 3-0 start for him in the UFC with 65 grade striking. So there’s no shame in Buzukja losing to him on the Contender. And he didn’t even do that bad. Wrestling was close to equal. But Baghdasaryan just out struck him by a bit. Buzukja gets a much more winnable matchup here. Last time Romero got a big step up in competition, he got knocked out. I think Buzukja has two legit paths to win with margin.
Chris’ Pick: Buzukja by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Buzukja -350
Alesandro Costa vs Andres Luna
- Alessandro Costa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a 10-2 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-2 wrestler. Beat a 4-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Andres Luna
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-2 wrestler and a 9-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I watched Luna beat a 9-1 grappler, but he got off to a bit of a slow start. The grappler rocked him on the feet, striking was close to even in the 1st round. But Luna took over with his wrestling after after that, getting take downs and maintaining top control most of the rest of the fight. He takes on Costa who’s just starting to unlock power in his hands. 2 of Costa’s 10 wins are by KO and how has Costa won his last 2 fights? Knockout. He took on an opponent who I thought had well rounded 50 tools. 1st round was close, but Costa was fighting with such a pace he overwhelmed his opponent causing him to melt from all the strikes. Costa should have a slight striking edge, but I’m confident his edge in power will be significant, but I have Costa as only a -150 because of the possibility of Luna being able to get take downs.
Chris’ Pick: Costa by 2nd round knockout..
What I think the odds should be: Costa -150