Bo Nickal vs Donovan Beard
- Bo Nickal
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 2-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Donovan Beard
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-0 grappler. Submitted a 3-0 wrestler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
I’m disappointed that Beard is the best challenge the UFC could come up with for Nickal. I thought Beard’s last opponent, a 3-0 wrestler had 55 wrestling. After watching it, probably has 60 wrestling. How’d the fight go? Beard got dominated. His opponent took him down and controlled him for the first 3 rounds. If it was a 3 round fight, he would’ve lost, but it was for a CFFC belt, so the fight was 5 rounds. The opponent was getting tired and in the 4th round, Beard caught him in a triangle choke and got the submission. Nickal’s grappling did really impress me. Was better than I thought he’d be. Not many things live up to the hype. I’m pretty sure his opponent had 55 grappling and Nickal made him look like an amateur who didn’t belong in there. Zero resistance, fight was over in a minute. Nickal has 2 fights and a total of 1 minute 35 seconds of cage time. Extremely small sample, but his wrestling looks like it’s a 70 grade. I’m projecting a bit with the striking. We haven’t seen much of it. But yeah, the UFC doesn’t have too many mismatches. This is one of them.
Chris’ Pick: Nickal by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Nickal -1200
Sam Patterson vs Vinicius Cenci
- Sam Patterson
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 14-1 grappler. Knocked out a 9-3 striker. Beat an 18-6 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Vinicius Cenci
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter, a 6-2 striker, and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Not much video on Cenci out there. I did find a video with Cenci vs a 4-1 striker that I think has 55 striking and 50 wrestling. And Cenci made short work of him. Less than a minute of striking, but Cenci was getting the better of it. Knocked his opponent down, jumped in with a guillotine choke and it was over. I’m projecting a bit with his grades because of the lack footage. Patterson had a high profile fight in Brave where he took on a 14-1 grappler. Fight was back and forth, but Patterson won because he caught his opponent in a guillotine when going for a take down. Got the tap. Not my most confident grades, but Patterson’s power advantage should be the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Patterson by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Patterson -135
Freddy Emiliano Linares vs Jack Jenkins
- Freddy Emiliano Linares
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 8-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker. Knocked out a 3-0 grappler and a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Jack Jenkins
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
At first glance at Jenkins record, it looks average. 9-2 record. Zero wins over quality fighters. Two decision wins out of 9 wins. Looked like well rounded 50 tools. But then I watched his last fight against a well rounded 5-3 fighter who I’m pretty sure has at least 45 tools. And it’s possible he could have 50 striking and 50 grappling. But wow, Jenkins really impressed me. He dominated on the feet, was fast, high output. And his cardio held up to allow him to pepper his opponent for 15 rounds. Opponent also got nowhere close to taking Jenkins down in 3 attempts. One of Linares’ last fights was with a well rounded 4-1 fighter who I think has 50 tools. Linares did okay. Showed he was more polished. Was a little bit better everywhere with 55 tools. Started to gas out towards the end of the fight. Which is important because that’s not going to do well with Jenkins’ usual pace and pressure.
Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by 3rd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Jenkins -200
Rafael Esteves vs Joao Elias
- Rafael Esteves
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 10-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat a 6-1 grappler and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Joao Elias
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 grappler. Submitted a well rounded 9-1 fighter and a 9-3 grappler. Beat a 3-0 grappler.
- Striking: average (50)
- Power: below average (40)
- Grappling: above average (60)
At first I thought Elias had 55 striking. But I watched him take on a 21-6 grappler who I thought had 50 striking, 55 grappling. Elias did get the better of the grappling. Getting a couple takedowns, had control for a bit. But the striking on the feet was close to equal before Elias got knocked out by a flying knee. And it’s not like his opponent is a way better striking than I thought. Out of the opponent’s 21 career wins, only 2 have come by KO. So that doesn’t look good and I’m grading Elias’ striking a 50. Esteves arrived as a championship level prospect after his last fight in LFA, took on a well rounded 8-0 fighter who I thought had 60 tools going into the fight. Maybe his striking and grappling are 55s though because Esteves just out classed him everywhere. Took him down. Out struck him. But with Esteves, it was his pressure and cardio that makes the striking tool a 65 for me. I actually think Elias is a step down in competition for Esteves. I see Esteves overwhelming Elias on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Esteves by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Esteves -500
Ashiek Ajim vs Mateus Mendonca
- Ashiek Ajim
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 6-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Kris Moutinho.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: average (50)
- Mateus Mendonca
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 9-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 wrestler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 21-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Ajim’s only career loss was at the hands of UFC fighter Kris Moutinho. Not because Moutinho is necessarily better, but because Ajim wasn’t aware of how durable 55 striker Moutinho is. Striking was close to equal in 1st round. Ajim went hard. Ran out of gas in the 2nd round and it was all over. Mendonca took on a well respect UFC vet in Pedro Nobre, who I think still has 60 striking and 55 wrestling. Striking was close to equal, but Mendonca won because he was able to mix in a couple take downs. I like Ajim as a prospect, think his striking has a high ceiling, but Mendonca’s wrestling will be a problem for him.
Chris’ Pick: Mendoca by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Mendonca -225