Brandon Moreno vs Brandon Royval 2
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 9-4-2
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Brandon Royval
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Matt Schnell, Kai Kara France, Tim Elliott, Joby Sanchez and a 5-1 striker. Knocked out Matheus Nicolau a 7-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Split decision over Rogerio Bontorin.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Moreno has all the advantages here. Won the first fight. Two paths to win. Hometown crowd behind him.
Chris’ Pick: Moreno by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Moreno -350
Yair Rodriguez vs Brian Ortega
- Yair Rodriguez
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Andre Fili. Submitted Josh Emmett. Beat Jeremy Stephens. Split decision over Alex Caceres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Brian Ortega
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Renato Moicano and Cub Swanson. Knocked out Frankie Edgar. Beat The Korean Zombie.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
I know Rodriguez got knocked out by Alexander Volkanovski in his last fight. But interestingly, before the KO happened, Rodriguez was out striking Volkanovski 38 to 25. Crazy. Because I have Volkanovski at a top of the scale 80 grade for his striking. I’m confident in the grade based on the master class he put on Max Holloway. Now, is it possible Rodriguez’s striking leveled up to an 80 too? Possible. I’m not there yet. But wouldn’t be surprised at all if the tool is an 80. I think Ortega gets back to his roots here and over the course of 3 rounds, he’ll catch Rodriguez on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Ortega by 3rd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Ortega -135
Daniel Zellhuber vs Francisco Prado
- Daniel Zellhuber
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 14-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 11-3 striker, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted Cristos Giagos. Beat Lando Vannata, Lucas Almeida, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Francisco Prado
- Age: 21
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 9-3 striker, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Zellhuber by split decision.
What I think the odds should be: Zellhuber -175
Raul Rosas Jr vs Ricky Turcios
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 19
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell. Submitted Jay Perrin. Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Kevin Natividad, Brady Hiestand, and Steve Garcia.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rosas Jr -600
Yazmin Jauregui vs Sam Hughes
- Yazmin Jauregui
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Istela Nunes and a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Iasmin Lucindo.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Sam Hughes
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat Jaqueline Amorim and a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Majority decision over Istela Nunes.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Jauregui by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Jauregui -300
Manuel Torres vs Chris Duncan
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 14-5 fighter and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Nik Motta, Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: average (50)
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Beat Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Torres by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Torres -125
Raoni Barcelos vs Cristian Quinonez
- Raoni Barcelos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Timur Valiev.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Guttierez. Beat Trevin Jones, Khalid Taha, and Said Nurmagomedov.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cristian Quinonez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 18-4
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Khalid Taha, a 4-1 striker, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a 9-0 striker, a 6-1 grappler and a 13-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
I’ve had Barcelos at 65 striking for awhile. But seeing him get out struck by Kyler Phillips 62 to 39, I have no choice but to downgrade the tool to a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Barcelos by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Barcelos -200
Jesus Aguilar vs Mateus Mendonca
- Jesus Aguilar
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Edgar Chairez, an 11-1 striker, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out Shannon Ross. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Mateus Mendonca
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 wrestler and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Knocked out a 6-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 21-5 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Mendonca by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mendonca -225
Edgar Chairez vs Daniel Lacerda
- Edgar Chairez
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 10-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Daniel Lacerda
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-1 grappler and a 5-0 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Tatsuro Tairo closed as a -700 favorite over Chairez, so despite Chairez losing, I think he out performed the price by knocking Taira down in the 1st round and the striking exchanges being close to equal. But he lost due to only having 60 grappling. Shouldn’t be a problem here with the ultra aggressive Lacerda who’s made a habit of emptying the gas tank in the 1st round. Chairez should be durable enough to survive the 1st and then take over in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Chairez by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Chairez -200
Claudio Puelles vs Fares Ziam
- Claudio Puelles
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Clay Guida, Chris Greutzemacher, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Jordan Leavitt.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Puelles by 1st round submission
What I think the odds should be: Puelles -175
Luis Rodriguez vs Denys Bondar
- Luis Rodriguez
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 16-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Split decision over a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Denys Bondar
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-1 grappler and a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Bondar by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Bondar -175
Felipe dos Santos vs Victor Altamirano
- Felipe dos Santos
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Victor Altamirano
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Hernandez.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel da Silva. Beat Vinicius Salvador, a well rounded 5-2 fighter and a 6-1 grappler. Split decision wins over a well rounded 8-0 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Altamirano couldn’t stuff any Tim Elliott take downs. And he won’t be able to stop dos Santos’ either.
Chris’ Pick: dos Santos by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: dos Santos -500
Muhammad Naimov vs Erik Silva
- Muhammad Naimov
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Beat Nathaniel Wood. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Erik Silva
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key WIns: Submitted a well rounded 18-6 fighter. Knocked out a 3-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Let’s say Darren Elkins has 65 wrestling. It’s possible. Well, Elkins was able to take down and get the better of TJ Brown on the ground. Which means Brown’s wrestling is a 60 after all. And because of how Brown got the better of Silva in the wrestling, I think Silva’s wrestling is ultimately a 55, despite how good he looked in LUX.
Chris’ Pick: Naimov by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Naimov -450