Alexander Volkanovski vs Ilia Topuria
- Alexander Volkanovski
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 12-0 at 145 lbs. 12-2 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out The Korean Zombie and Chad Mendes. Beat Brian Ortega, Max Holloway thrice, and Jose Aldo.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Ilia Topuria
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Bryce Mitchell, an 8-1 grappler, and a 7-1 wrestler. Knocked out Ryan Hall, Damon Jackson, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
By the end of the Topuria vs Emmett fight, you walk away with the impressive that Topuria easily won the fight and dominated. But the numbers say otherwise. Yes, Topuria did last more shots, 114 to 87. But the guy who really dominated Emmett was Yair Rodriguez, he out struck Emmett 47 to 13. My point is that Topuria’s striking is just a 70 grade for me. Could Topuria level up and show up with 75 striking here? Sure. It’s possible, but we haven’t seen it yet. I still think Volkanovski is the #1 pound for pound fighter in the world. His stock is down just a tad, but guys, he took a fight against Islam Makhachev on less than 2 weeks notice. His skills haven’t gone anywhere. My only concern picking Volkanovski is that he’s 35 years old. Coming off the first KO loss of his career. After only 4 months. And sometimes when fighters start to show decline, it comes steep and swift. But that’s my only concern. On paper here Volkanovski rolls and you’re getting him at a discount at the betting window right now.
Chris’ Pick: Volkanovski by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Volkanovski -400
Robert Whittaker vs Paulo Costa
- Robert Whittaker
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Yoel Romero (twice), MarvinJared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Paulo Costa
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Uriah Hall and Johny Hendricks. Beat Luke Rockhold. Split decision over Yoel Romero.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Whittaker is coming off a bad knockout loss, but his body has had over half a year to recover. I wouldn’t be too surprised if Costa knocks him out, possible Whittaker’s chin could be on the way out, but Whittaker winning on points is what’s most likely to happen.
Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Whittaker -125
Ian Machado Garry vs Geoff Neal
- Ian Machado Garry
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 6-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Rodriguez, Kenan Song, Jordan Williams, a 4-0 grappler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Neil Magny, Gabe Green, Darian Weeks, and a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Geoff Neal
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Vicente Luque, Mike Perry, and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed. Split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
I have more confidence Neal’s striking is a 70. Neal might mix in some take downs. And Neal has proven to be durable as shown in the close Shavkat Rakhmonov fight.
Chris’ Pick: Neal by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Neal -175
Henry Cejudo vs Merab Dvalishvili
- Henry Cejudo
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 10-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw. Split decision over Demetrius Johnson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 9-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ricky Simon at the very end of the fight. Split decision loss to Frankie Saenz.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Beat Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
Dvalishvili’s striking has really come a long way. Amazingly, he out struck Yan 129 to 66. Wow. Striking is really close to a top of the scale 80 grade.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Dvalishvili -250
Roman Kopylov vs Anthony Hernandez
- Roman Kopylov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Josh Fremd, Claudio Ribeiro, Punahele Soriano, Alessio di Chirico, out a 7-1 striker in just his 2nd pro fight. Also knocked out a well rounded 8-2 fighter in his 3rd pro fight. Knocked out a 6-2 wrestler and a 9-2 wrestler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Anthony Hernandez
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out Edmen Shahbazyan and a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: plus (70)
After Kopylov knocked out Fremed, I looked at the numbers and was surprised to see Kopylov only out struck him 47 to 37. I had Fremd with 60 striking going in. Maybe he leveled the tool up to a 65, but I’m not sure.
Chris’ Pick: Kopylov by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Kopylov -175
Mackenzie Dern vs Amanda Lemos
- Mackenzie Dern
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Nina Nunes, Randa Markos, and Hannah Cifers. Beat Angela Hill and Virna Jandiroba. Split decision wins over Tecia Torres and Ashley Yoder.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Amanda Lemos
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Montserrat Ruiz and Livinha Souza. Submitted Michelle Waterson and Miranda Granger. Beat Mizuki Inoue. Split decision over Angela Hill.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Yes, Dern looked really bad in the Jessica Andrade fight. But the numbers say she didn’t do as bad as we thought. And believe it or not, Dern actually out struck Andrade 47 to 43. So Dern’s striking is indeed a 70. But she lost to Andrade because of the power difference. I still think her grappling is a 75 because of how she totally dominated 65 wrestler Hill. I think the Andrade fight was an outlier in that Andrade’s power intimidated Dern and made her not want to get too close. Lemos has that same type of power, but not the same take down defense Andrade has.
Chris’ Pick: Dern by 1st round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Dern -200
Marcos Rogerio de Lima vs Junior Tafa
- Marcos Rogerio de Lima
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 6-4 at heavyweight. 10-7 in the UFC overall.
- Key Losses: Submitted by Stefan Struve.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ben Rothwell. Submitted Andrei Arlovski. Beat Waldo Cortes-Acosta, Maurice Greene. and Adam Wieczorek.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 5-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Parker Porter and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: Rogerio de Lima by 2nd round submission.
What I think the odds should be: Rogerio de Lima -400
Rinya Nakamura vs Carlos Vera
- Rinya Nakamura
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 10-2 fighter and a 9-2 grappler. Beat Fernie Garcia and a 23-6 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Carlos Vera
- Age: 36
- Pro Record: 11-3
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Nakamura by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Nakamura -500
Mingyang Zhang vs Brendson Ribeiro
- Mingyang Zhang
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Submitted a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Brendson Ribeiro
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonio Arroyo and a 6-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Mingyang is a really unique prospect. His first loss and pro fight came when he was 16 years old. All 6 of his losses came when he was 21 years old or younger. And he’s a former heavyweight, now cuts down to 205 lbs. And all 16 of his wins are by 1st round finish. That’s right, he’s never won a fight that’s left the 1st round. His opponent on Road to UFC George Tokkos, he closed as a mind boggling -675 favorite. How did that happen? Maybe the market thought Tokkos had 65 tools and that Mingyang had 50 tools. Maybe, but not sure how they’d get there. I think Tokkos’ striking and grappling is more like a 60 and that Mingyang is coming into his own at 24 years of age and now fighting smaller guys than he used to. I could be over rating Mingyang here, but he did out strike Tokkos 30 to 21. Possibility that Ribeiro’s striking could be a 65. His opponent Bruno Lopes closed as a massive -675 favorite, meaning that everybody believed he had 65 striking and that Ribeiro was more of a wrestler with 55 striking. But amazingly, Ribeiro out struck Lopes 28 to 20. So I think the most plausible explanation is somewhere in the middle. Lopes’ striking not being quite as good, Ribeiro’s being a bit better.
Chris’ Pick: Mingyang by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Mingyang -175
Danny Barlow vs Josh Quinlan
- Danny Barlow
- Age: 37
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Josh Quinlan
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt. Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
I was pretty convinced that Quinlan had 60 striking, but then Trey Waters out strikes him 102 to 46. Now, I can believe that Waters has 65 striking. The striking numbers between him and Gabriel Bonfim were close to equal. But that also means Quinlan’s striking has to be a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Barlow by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Barlow -250
Valentine Woodburn vs Oban Elliott
- Valentine Woodburn
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 17-6 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Oban Elliott
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Majority decision over a 17-4 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Chris’ Pick: Woodburn by 1st round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Woodburn -175
Miranda Maverick vs Andrea Lee
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Maycee Barber.
- Key Wins: Submitted Priscila Cachoeira, Sabina Mazo, DeAnna Bennett, and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat Gillian Robertson and a 6-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Maycee Barber, Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I haven’t seen Natalia Silva fight Viviane Araujo yet, but the market is pricing Silva to have 75 striking. Which makes me a tad more confident that Lee’s striking is a 70. Although I’m not super confident.
Chris’ Pick: Lee by decision.
What I think the odds should be: Lee -225