Jack Della Maddalena vs Carlos Prates
- Jack Della Maddalena
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Burns, Randy Brown, Danny Roberts, Ramazan Emeev, Pete Rodriguez, a 4-0 grappler, and a 4-0 wrestler. Beat Belal Muhammad and a 7-1 striker. Split decision over Kevin Holland.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Carlos Prates
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Leon Edwards, Geoff Neal, Neil Magny, Jingliang Li, Charlie Radtke, Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite all the knockouts, I still don’t think Prates’ striking is a 75 as he recently fought Ian Machado Garry and Machado Garry out struck him 120 to 50. And also Edwards’ being able to take Prates down a couple times and control him for a couple minutes makes it likely that Prates still has yet to level up. I think this fight goes similar to how Prates vs Machado Garry went, think Della Maddalena stays at range and out points him.
Chris’ Pick: Della Maddalena by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Della Maddalena -250
Beniel Dariush vs Quillan Salkilld
- Beneil Dariush
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 17-7-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Mateusz Gamrot and Tony Ferguson. Split decision over Diego Ferreira.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Quillan Salkilld
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey, Nasrat Haqparast, Anshul Jubli, a 3-1 grappler, and a 6-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Yanal Ashmouz and a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Dariush has been knocked in the 1st round in 3 of his last 4 fights so it seems like his chin at 155 lbs isn’t holding up anymore.
Chris’ Pick: Salkilld by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Salkilld -200
Steve Erceg vs Tim Elliott
- Steve Erceg
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Ode Osbourne, Alessandro Costa, and David Dvorak.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tim Elliott
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 14-11
- Key Losses: Lost to Zach Makovsky.
- Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted by Ben Nguyen. Submitted Kai Asakura, Su Mudaerji, and Mark de la Rosa. Beat Victor Altamirano, Tagir Ulanbekov, Louis Smolka, Ryan Benoit, and Jordan Espinosa.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
I still don’t understand how Erceg goes from out striking Brandon Moreno 115 to 87 and then in his next fight getting out struck by Osborune 29 to 12. Makes zero sense. And Moreno still has 70 tools, we saw that in his fight with Lone’er Kavanagh. So maybe the Osbourne fight was an outlier for Erceg.
Chris’ Pick: Erceg by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Erceg -225
Marwan Rahiki vs Oliver Schmid
- Marwan Rahiki
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a 6-1 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Oliver Schmid
- Age: 23
- Pro Record: 4-2
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Schmid’s record is deceptive. He lost his debut to a good prospect but his last loss to a 6-4 striker, Schmid dominated the 1st round, showed off 60-65 tools. But had his opponent in the body triangle for half the round and gassed himself out going for the finish. And Schmid also trains at City Kickboxing. Grading his striking is a bit of a projection, could be a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Rahiki by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rahiki -125
Shamil Gaziev vs Brando Pericic
- Shamil Gaziev
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Thomas Petersen, Martin Buday, Darko Stosic, and a 4-0 striker. Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter. Beat Don’Tale Mayes. Split decision over a 13-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Brando Pericic
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Louie Sutherland and a 5-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
We’ve seen about 3 minutes of cage time from Pericic in his first 2 UFC fights, so really small sample, but possible his striking could be as high as a 70. And Gaziev has been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights. I’m projecting Pericic’s wrestling as a 65, but I could be wrong.
Chris’ Pick: Pericic by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pericic -225
Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland
- Tai Tuivasa
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 8-9
- Key Losses: Submitted by Serghei Spivac.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Augusto Sakai, Greg Hardy, and Cyril Asker. Beat Andrei Arlovski.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Louie Sutherland
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 10-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter and a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Tuivasa by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Tuivasa -135
Cameron Rowston vs Robert Bryczek
- Cameron Rowston
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 14-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Cody Brundage, Andre Petroski, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Robert Bryczek
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 6-4 wrestler.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Tavares, a well rounded 16-5 fighter, a 7-1 striker, a 9-1 striker, a 7-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat an 8-0 striker, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a 7-1 wrestler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Rowston by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rowston -250
Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian
- Junior Tafa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 2-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Sean Sharaf, Parker Porter, and a 6-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Kevin Christian
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker, a 3-1 striker, and a well rounded 18-5 striker. Knocked out a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Christian by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Christian -135
Jacob Malkoun vs Gerald Meerschaert
- Jacob Malkoun
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Petroski. Beat Torrez Finney, Nick Maximov, AJ Dobson, and Abdul Razak Alhassan.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Gerald Meerschaert
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 12-13
- Key Losses: Lost split decisions to Andre Petroski, Kevin Holland, and Eryk Anders.
- Key Wins: Submitted Edmen Shahbazyan, Bryan Barberena, Bruno Silva, Dustin Stoltzfus, Makhmud Muradov, Bartosz Fabinski, Ryan Janes, Oskar Piechota, and Trevin Giles.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Malkoun by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Malkoun -135
Colby Thicknesse vs Vince Morales
- Colby Thicknesse
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Beat Josias Musasa.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Vince Morales
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 3-9
- Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Slight chance Thicknesse’s striking is a 65. Not entirely sure where to grade that tool.
Chris’s Pick: Thicknesse by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Thicknesse -175
Wes Schultz vs Ben Johnston
- Wes Schultz
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Ben Johnston
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Schultz by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Schultz -300
Jonathan Micallef vs Themba Gorimbo
- Jonathan Micallef
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a 13-4 striker. Beat Kevin Jousset, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Themba Gorimbo
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 14-7 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Pete Rodriguez. Submitted a 6-0 wrestler. Beat Niko Price, Ramiz Brahimaj, Takashi Sato and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Chris’ Pick: Gorimbo by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gorimbo -250
Kody Steele vs Dom Mar Fan
- Kody Steele
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Dom Mar Fan
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 9-2
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat Sang Wook Kim, Jae Hyun Park and a well rounded 11-0 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Steele got a lot of hype off the Contender, but Rongzhu out struck him 125 to 58. Total wipeout. But Steele’s wrestling could be a 60.
Chris’ Pick: Fan by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fan -200