Whittaker vs Aliskerov, Pavlovich vs Volkov, Walker vs Oezdemir Fight Picks – June 22, 2024

Robert Whittaker vs Ikram Aliskerov

• Robert Whittaker
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 13-3 at 185 lbs.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson, Jacare Souza. Beat Paulo Costa, Yoel Romero (twice), MarvinJared Cannonier, and Uriah Hall.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

• Ikram Aliskerov
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 15-1
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Warlley Alves, Phil Hawes, and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Submitted Mario Sousa, Dennis Tiuliulin, and an 11-3 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

I know Aliskerov has a ton of hype right now. Three 1st round finishes in three UFC fights. Each lasting a little over 2 minutes. But. The striking numbers between Aliskerov and Hawes were close to equal. And despite the quick KO with Alves, the numbers show his striking was just a 65 grade. I could be wrong. Maybe the tool is a 70, but as of now, I think it’s more likely to be a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Whittaker by decision.

What odds i think the favorite should be at: Whittaker -300

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Sergei Pavlovich vs Alexander Volkov

• Sergei Pavlovich
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Curtis Blaydes and Tai Tuivasa, Derrick Lewis, Shamil Abdurakhimov, and Maurice Greene.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Alexander Volkov
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 11-4
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alistair Overeem, Walt Harris, and Fabricio Werdum. Submitted Tai Tuivasa. Beat Marcin Tybura and Greg Hardy.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

Usually, with where these fighters are graded at, I would pick Volkov because of the wrestling edge he should have. But Pavlovich’s power is special and is a border line 80 grade. I don’t think he needs to touch Volkov too much for him to go down.

Chris’ Pick: Pavlovich by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Pavlovich -125

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Kelvin Gastelum vs Daniel Rodriguez

• Kelvin Gastelum
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 6-3 at 170 lbs. 12-9 overall.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Till.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Michael Bisping. Beat Chris Curtis and Ian Heinisch. Split decision win over Jacare Souza.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Daniel Rodriguez
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Tim Means and a 7-2 grappler. Knocked out Dwight Grant, a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Beat Kevin Lee, Mike Perry and a 7-2 striker. Split decision over Jingliang Li
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Gastelum by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gastelum -175

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Shara Magomedov vs Antonio Trocoli

• Shara Magomedov
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 12-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-4 striker, a 4-1 striker, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Bruno Silva and a 21-5 wrestler.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Antonio Trocoli
• Age: 33
• Pro Record: 12-3
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-3 striker.
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 3-1 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Grappling: above average (60)

It’s rare for a fighter to debut in the UFC with a 70 tool, but that’s what Magomedov did with his striking as I know Silva has 65 striking. But I also know his wrestling is only a 60 as Silva took him down repeatedly. Didn’t see much from Trocoli on the Contender. The grappling between him and 55 grappler Kenneth Bergh went back and forth until Trocoli got him down with a judo throw, took the back after that, and got the choke in. Fight was over in a few minutes. We didn’t see much of his striking. And to make Trocoli even more of a question mark, that Contender fight was close to 5 years ago. His last pro fight was almost 3 years ago. Very real chance he shows up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Magomedov by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Magomedov -135

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Johnny Walker vs Volkan Oezdemir

• Johnny Walker
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 8-5
• Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, Ryan Spann, Khalil Rountree, Justin Ledet, and Misha Cirkunov. Submitted Ion Cutelaba. Beat Anthony Smith.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Volkan Oezdemir
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 7-6
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dominick Reyes.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Ilir Latifi, Misha Cirkunov, and Jimi Manuwa. Submitted Bogdan Guskov. Beat Paul Craig. Split decision win over Aleksandar Rakic and Ovince St. Preux.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: plus (70)

On the one hand, Walker out struck Smith 81 to 38. On the other hand, Magomed Ankalaev out struck Walker 38 to 24. So maybe Ankalaev’s striking leveled up to a 75. Probably. But I’ll say Walker’s striking is on the lower end of a 75 grade.

Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Walker -200

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Nasrat Haqparast vs Jared Gordon

• Nasrat Haqparast  
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 8-4
• Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and Joaquim Silva. Beat Landon Quinones, John Makdessi, Rafa Garcia, and Marc Diakiese.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Jared Gordon
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 8-4
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Mark O. Madsen. Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

The market might think Haqparast has 65 striking, but the numbers don’t. The tool has been a 60 for awhile and that was reaffirmed in his fight with Mullarkey.

Chris’ Pick: Gordon by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be: Gordon -300

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Muhammad Naimov vs Felipe Lima

• Muhammad Naimov
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 11-2
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Beat Nathaniel Wood. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Felipe Lima
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 12-1
• Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-0 fighter, an 8-1-1 wrestler, and a 14-5 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

I didn’t like what I saw from Baghdasaryan in the Lutz fight. Either Lutz got better or Baghdasaryan took a step back and I think the latter is more likely. Could be wrong though. I watched Lima’s last fight in Oktagon with a 14-5 grappler. It was an entertaining, but striking and wrestling were close to equal. Possible Lima’s wrestling could be a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Naimov by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be: Naimov -300

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Rinat Fakheretdinov vs Nicolas Dalby

• Rinat Fakhretdinov
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 21-1-1
• UFC Record: 3-0-1
• Key Draws: Fought Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos to a draw.
• Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee and a well rounded 13-2 fighter. Beat Andreas Michailidis.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: plus (70)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Nicolas Dalby
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 6-3-1
• Key Draws: Fought Darren Till to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Beat Muslim Salikhov, Claudio Silva, Daniel Rodriguez, and Alex Oliveira. Split decisions over Warlley Alves and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Fakheretdinov’s wrestling is a barely a 70, very close to down grading the tool to a 65. Only reason Dalby beat Bonfim is Bonfim gassed himself out. I don’t think that happens to Fakeretdinov.

Chris’ Pick: Fakheretdinov by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fakheretdinov -175

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Muin Gafurov vs Kyung Ho Kang

• Muin Gafurov
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 18-6
• UFC Record: 0-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 15-1 grappler, a 5-1 grappler, and a 10-2-1 grappler. Beat an 11-3 grappler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Kyung Ho Kang
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 7-4
• Key Wins: Submitted Cristian Quinonez. Beat Batgerel Danaa. Split decision over Pingyuan Liu.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Gafurov by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gafurov -225

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Brendson Ribeiro vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov

• Brendson Ribeiro
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 15-6
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Antonio Arroyo and a 6-1 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 11-0 fighter and a 7-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

• Magomed Gadzhiyasulov
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 8-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Beat an 11-2 striker and an 11-4 wrestler.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Going into Ribeiro’s fight with Mingyang, I thought his striking could be a 65 and that turned out to be the case. Despite getting knocked out, the striking was close to equal up to that point. It’s hard to figure out what we take out of Gadzhiyasulov’s win on the Contender because his opponent Jose Medina is uniquely durable. Gadzhiyasulov out struck him 67 to 16. I give Ribeiro a slight edge as I’m more confident in where I’ve graded him.

Chris’ Pick: Ribeiro by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ribeiro -125

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Long Xiao vs Chang Ho Lee

• Long Xiao
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 26-7
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 grappler. Split decision over a 10-3 grappler. Majority decision over a 13-1 grappler.
• Striking: a little average (55)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: average (50)

• Chang Ho Lee
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 9-1
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Zhawupasi Daermisi and an 11-1 grappler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Market thought Shuya Kamikubo had 60 striking so he closed as a -225 favorite over Long. But the striking turned out to be close to equal the first 2 rounds before Kamikubo gassed out and Long took over. Possible that Long’s striking has improved to a 60 grade, but more likely still a 55. Very possible Lee’s striking could be a 60 as well.

Chris’ Pick: Lee by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lee -175