Perez vs Taira, Silva de Andrade vs Johns, Almeida vs Cuamba Fight Picks – June 15, 2024

Alex Perez vs Tatsuro Taira

  • Alex Perez
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 8-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Matheus Nicolau, Jussier Formiga and Jose Torres. Submitted Jordan Espinosa. Beat Mark de la Rosa and Eric Shelton.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Tatsuro Taira
  • Age: 24
  • UFC Record: 5-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Carlos Henrnadez and a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted Jesus Aguilar, CJ Vergara, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez and Carlos Candelario.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

It’s possible Taira’s grappling could be as high as a 75, but I don’t it because his striking is definitely no higher than a 65 and I don’t think his grappling is that further ahead over his stand up. I was surprised to see the striking between Perez and Nicolau being close to equal, but that probably had more to do with Nicolau’s striking being better than I thought.

Chris’ Pick: Perez by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Perez -200


Douglas Silva de Andrade vs Miles Johns

  • Douglas Silva de Andrade
  • Age: 38
  • UFC Record: 7-5
  • Key Wins: Submitted Sergey Morozov. Beat Cody Stamann and Marlon Vera.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Miles Johns
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat Vince Morales, a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Beat Cody Gibson. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Johns’s wrestling definitely leveled up to a 65 in his last fight with Gibson.

Chris’ Pick: Johns by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Johns -175


Lucas Almeida vs Timmy Cuamba

  • Lucas Almeida
  • Age: 33
  • Pro Record: 14-3
  • UFC Record: 1-3
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Timmy Cuamba
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -250


Garrett Armfield vs Brady Hiestand

  • Garrett Armfield
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 10-3
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 10-3 fighter and a well rounded 4-1-1 fighter. Beat Brad Katona.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Brady Hiestand
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 10-4 fighter. Split decision loss to Rickt Turcios.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Batgerel Danaa. Beat Fernie Garcia.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Hiestand showed a lot of heart and cardio in his win over Batgerel. Surprisingly the striking was close to equal which made me elevate his striking to a 60. Katona’s striking is no worse than a 55. And Armfield out struck him 99 to 46. Legit 65 striking tool. Slight possibility that Armfield’s wrestling is a 60 though.

Chris’ Pick: Armfield by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Armfield -200


Asu Almabaev vs Jose Johnson

  • Asu Almabaev
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 19-2
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and a well rounded 10-2 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara, a 4-0 grappler, and a 14-4 wrestler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: plus (65)
  • Jose Johnson
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 16-8
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a 2-1 grappler. Lost to a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 5-2 fighter, a 4-1 wrestler, a well rounded 11-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Chad Anheliger and a 6-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Almabaev’s wrestling is a borderline 70, really close. His cardio might make it a 70 pretty soon, but I have it as a high 65 for now. Johnson is moving down to 125 lbs so there’s a very real possibility he shows up with 65 tools.

Chris’ Pick: Almabaev by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almabaev -125


Adam Fugitt vs Josh Quinlan

  • Adam Fugitt
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 9-4
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Yusaku Kinoshita, an 8-2 wrestler, and a well rounded 3-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Josh Quinlan
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 6-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jason Witt. Submitted a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Fugitt by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fugitt -400


Nate Maness vs Jimmy Flick

  • Nate Maness
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 1-1 at 125 lbs. 4-3 overall.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders. Knocked out Mateus Mendonca, Tony Gravely, out a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a 15-4 grappler. Beat a 10-0 grappler and a 4-0 grappler. Split decision over a 6-0 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Jimmy Flick
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-2 fighter and a 12-5 grappler. Lost to a 4-3 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Malcolm Gordon, Cody Durden, a 6-0 grappler, a 10-1 grappler and a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
  • Striking: average (50)
  • Power: below average (40)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Maness is a bad matchup for Flick as I think he’ll force Flick to trade strikes with him.

Chris’ Pick: Maness by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Maness -350


Gabriella Fernandes vs Carli Judice

  • Gabriella Fernandes
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 8-3
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Carli Judice
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 3-1
  • UFC Record: 0-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Ernesta Kareckaite.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Judice by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Judice -225


Jeka Saragih vs Westin Wilson

  • Jeka Saragih
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 14-3
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-0 striker. Knocked out Lucas Alexander and a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)
  • Westin Wilson
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 16-9
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 wrestler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Saragih is a really unique profile. He gets out classed by Anshul Jubli. Market prices that in and closes with Alexander as a -500 favorite over Saragih. But Saragih fought up a weight class with Jubli. Goes down to his natural weight with Alexander. Then, Saragih knocks Alexander out in less than 2 minutes. So maybe Saragih has 65 striking? Well, small sample, but Alexander out struck Saragih 11 to 2. So Saragih’s striking is at least a 60, with a possibility of a 65 grade on the table, but we need to see more.

Chris’ Pick: Saragih by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Saragih -350


Melquizael Costa vs Nuerdanbieke Shayilan

  • Melquizael Costa
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 20-7
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Nuerdanbieke Shayilan
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Losses: Submitted by a 10-5 grappler. Lost to a 3-2 wrestler.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Darrick Minner and a 5-1 grappler. Submitted a 7-1 wrestler. Beat TJ Brown and Sean Soriano.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Everybody agreed Costa was going to beat Steve Garcia. Costa closed as a -540 favorite. And then Garcia upsets him. But I think that was more a case of Garcia leveling up. It was his first fight at 155 lbs. I’m still confident Costa has 70 striking due to him out landing Lingo 93 to 39.

Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -300


Josefine Knutsson vs Julia Polastri

  • Josefine Knutsson
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Marnic Mann, a 5-1 striker, a 3-0-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Split decision over a 4-0 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Julia Polastri
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 12-3
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

I thought Knutsson vs Mann was going to be a close fight, but it was anything but that. Mann is not terrible, she’s good. But Knutsson dominated. Polastri closed as a monster -600 favorite on the Contender against a fighter that I thought had 55 striking and 50 wrestling. So market was pricing Polastri’s striking as a 65 and wrestling as a 60. But the fight didn’t play out how the market thought it would. Polastri only out struck her 64 to 53. So no way Polastri’s striking is a 65. But then Polastri took her opponent down and the fight was over after a few minutes. 

Chris’ Pick: Knutsson by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Knutsson -450

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