
Jared Cannonier vs Nassourdine Imavov
- Jared Cannonier
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 185 lbs. 10-6 overall.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Marvin Vettori, Sean Strickland, and Kelvin Gastelum.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Nassourdine Imavov
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Phil Hawes.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ian Heinisch, a 3-0 wrestler, and a 9-1 striker. Beat Joaquin Buckley, Jordan Williams, and a 12-4 grappler. Majority decision over Roman Dolidze.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Total coin flip fight on paper, but I give Imavov a slight edge in that he’s 11 years younger than Cannonier.
Chris’ Pick: Imavov by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Imavov -135
Dominick Reyes vs Dustin Jacoby
- Dominick Reyes
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jared Cannonier, Ovince St. Preux, and Chris Weidman. Split decision over Volkan Oezdemir.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Dustin Jacoby
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 8-3-1 at 205 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Khalil Rountree.
- Key Draws: Fought Ion Cutelaba to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu, Da Un Jung, Darren Stewart, Justin Ledet, a 10-3 grappler and a 7-0 grappler. Beat Michel Oleksiejczuk, Maxim Grishin, and a 7-2 grappler.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Despite losing his last fight, I can finally say for sure, Jacoby’s striking is a legit 70 grade. He out struck Alonzo Menifield 78 to 51. Reyes returns for his first fight in a year and a half. On paper, his skills are still there. But Reyes has been knocked out 3 fights in a row so I have to question how his chin holds up.
Chris’ Pick: Jacoby by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jacoby -125
Raul Rosas Jr vs Ricky Turcios
- Raul Rosas Jr
- Age: 19
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Terrence Mitchell. Submitted Jay Perrin. Beat a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Ricky Turcios
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 12-3
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Boston Salmon.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler. Beat a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, and a 10-2 grappler. Split decision wins over Kevin Natividad, Brady Hiestand, and Steve Garcia.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
After Aiemann Zahabi upset Javid Basharat, we now know how good Zahabi is. Which means when Zahabi upset Turcios, it had more to do with Zahabi being better than we though vs Turcios not as good as we thought. It’s possible Rosas Jr’s striking could be a 65, but we haven’t seen very much of it. Small sample.
Chris’ Pick: Rosas Jr by 1st round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rosas Jr -250
Brunno Ferreira vs Dustin Stoltzfus
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Phil Hawes, Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Dustin Stoltzfus
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-4
- Key Wins: Submitted Puna Soriano. Knocked out a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat Dwight Grant and a 10-2 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Stoltzfus really leveled up in his last fight. Soriano came in as a monster -345 favorite. Stoltzfus out struck him 60 to 30, so I know for sure his striking is a 65. Not as confident in grading his wrestling a 70, probably on the lower end of the 70 grade, but more a 70 than a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Stoltzfus by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Stoltzfus -135
Julian Marquez vs Zachary Reese
- Julian Marquez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alessio di Chirico.
- Key Wins: Submitted Sam Alvey, Darren Stewart, and Maki Pitolo. Knocked out a 7-2 grappler and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Zachary Reese
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Marquez is coming off 2 knockout losses in a row, although the last one was due to running out of gas against Marc Andre Barriault. First fight in over a year. Decent possibility he shows up improved, but I question his durability. I think Reese starts fast and doesn’t give Marquez a chance to get comfortable after the long lay off.
Chris’ Pick: Reese by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Reese -200
Miguel Baeza vs Punahele Soriano
- Miguel Baeza
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key WIns: Knocked out Matt Brown. Submitted Takashi Sato. Beat a 10-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Punahele Soriano
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Nick Maximov.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dalcha Lungiambula, Dusko Todorovic, Oskar Piechota and a 5-1 striker. Beat Jamie Pickett and a 7-3 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Despite getting knocked out in straight fights and losing 3 straight, Baeza has taken 2 years off and makes his return here.
Chris’ Pick: Baeza by 2nd round knockout.
What I think the odds should be: Baeza -200
Ludovit Klein vs Thiago Moises
- Ludovit Klein
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Jai Herbert to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Cunningham, Shane Young, a 13-1 striker, a 14-5 grappler, and a well rounded 11-4 fighter. Beat Ignacio Bahamondes, Mason Jones, and an 11-2 striker. Split decision over Devonte Smith.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Thiago Moises
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 9-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Mitch Ramirez and Jamall Emmers. Submitted Melquizael Costa, Christos Giagos, and Michael Johnson. Beat Alexander Hernandez and Bobby Green.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Klein by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Klein -450
Charlie Radtke vs Carlos Prates
- Charlie Radtke
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 9-3
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gilbert Urbina. Submitted a 6-0 striker. Beat Blood Diamond. Split decision over a 3-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Carlos Prates
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Trevin Giles, an 8-0 striker, a 5-0 striker, and an 8-3 striker, and a well rounded 21-7 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I was very surprised when Urbina decided to not shoot for a single take down with Radtke. Possible Radtke’s wrestling could be a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Radtke by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Radtke -125
Andrea Lee vs Montana de la Rosa
- Andrea Lee
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Maycee Barber, Lauren Murphy and Joanne Calderwood.
- Key Wins: Submitted Antonina Shevchenko. Knocked out Cynthia Calvillo. Beat Montana de la Rosa and Ashlee Evans-Smith.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Montana de la Rosa
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 6-6-1
- Key Draws: Fought Mayra Bueno Silva to a majority draw,
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ariane Lipski. Submitted Nadia Kassem. Beat Mara Romero Borella.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
After Miranda Maverick out struck Lee 60 to 32, there’s now no doubt that Lee’s striking is a 65. But definitely no less than a 65. And even though Maverick edged Lee out on the ground, I still believe Lee’s grappling is a 65 with how she got the better of Barber on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Lee by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be: Lee -250
Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler
- Brad Katona
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-0 grappler. Beat Cody Gibson and an 8-1 wrestler. Split decision over an 11-2 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Jesse Butler
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a 5-3 grappler and an 8-5 grappler.
- Key WIns: Beat a 9-2 striker.
- Striking: fringe average (45)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Chris’ Pick: Katona by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Katona -600
Daniel Marcos vs John Castaneda
- Daniel Marcos
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Saimon Oliveira and a well rounded 7-1 fighter. Beat a 6-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Split decision over Davey Grant.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- John Castaneda
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland, a well rounded 6-1 fighter. Submitted Miles Johns. Beat Kyung Ho Kang, Muin Gafurov, and a 6-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: average (50)
Castaneda’s striking is really close to a 70. Possible his wrestling could be a 65, but that’s more of a projection.
Chris’ Pick: Marcos by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Marcos -125
Denise Gomes vs Eduarda Moura
- Denise Gomes
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Yazmin Jauregui, Bruna Brasil, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0-1 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Eduarda Moura
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-0
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key WIns: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Knocked out Montserrat Conejo and a 6-3 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Angela Hill might have gotten a few take downs in the 3rd round of her fight with Gomes, but that had more to do with Gomes gassing out. I saw enough to upgrade Gomes’ wrestling to a 65. But. I think it is on the lower end of a 60 grade. Moura has a true, legit 70 grappling tool. I think Moura goes with the same game plan Hill had which is tire Gomes out, but think Moura will execute it better.
Chris’ Pick: Moura by 2nd round submission.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Moura -200
Taylor Lapilus vs Cody Stamann
- Taylor Lapilus
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nathan Maness, Yuta Sasaki, an 11-0 wrestler, and an 8-0-1 wrestler. Beat Caolan Loughran, a well rounded 12-1 fighter. Split decision over a 6-0 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 7-5-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Luan Lacerda, Alejandro Perez, and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Lapilus is way, way better than I thought he would be coming into his 2nd tour with the UFC. Despite the unanimous decision loss, the fight was very close. Basharat only out struck hm 39 to 34. And Lapilus is similar to Stamann’s last opponent Douglas Silva de Andrade. I expect this fight to go the same way.
Chris’ Pick: Lapilus by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lapilus -250
Rayanne dos Santos vs Puja Tomar
- Rayanne dos Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 14-7
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Talita Alencar.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 6-3 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Puja Tomar
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 8-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-2-1 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: average (50)
Tomar should really be fighting at 105 lbs but that weight class doesn’t exist in the UFC. She’s only 4’9 and will be undersized. Dos Santos showed off improved skills against Talita Alencar, a fight I thought dos Santos won.
Chris’ Pick: dos Santos by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: dos Santos -200