Cejudo vs Song, Hernandez vs Allen, Font vs Matsumoto Fight Picks – February 22, 2025

Published on by Chris Schweppe

Henry Cejudo vs Song Yadong

  • Henry Cejudo
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 10-4
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw. Split decision over Demetrius Johnson.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
  • Song Yadong
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 10-3-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Cody Stamann to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Ricky Simon, Marlon Moraes, Julio Arce, Felipe Arantes, and Alejandro Perez. Beat Chris Gutierrez, Marlon Vera. Split decision over Casey Kenney.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

Song might’ve lost to Petr Yan, but it was a razor close fight. Yan out struck him 86 to 79. Control time on the ground was really close to equal.

Chris’ Pick: Song by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Song -125

Anthony Hernandez vs Brendan Allen

  • Anthony Hernandez
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Roman Kopylov, a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, and a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus plus (75)
  • Brendan Allen
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 12-3
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tom Breese. Submitted Paul Craig, Bruno Silva, Andre Muniz, Krzysztof Jotko, Sam Alvey, Kevin Holland, a 9-1 striker, a well rounded 7-0 fighter, and a 6-1 striker. Beat Jacob Malkoun, Punahele Soriano, and an 8-1 striker.  Split decision over Chris Curtis.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -400

Jean Matsumoto vs Rob Font

  • Jean Matsumoto
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 16-0
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Dan Argueta, a 7-0 striker. Beat Brad Katona, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)
  • Rob Font
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 10-7
  • Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Marlon Moraes and Thomas Almeida. Beat Kyler Phillips, Cody Garbrandt, Ricky Simon, and Sergio Pettis.
  • Striking: near plus plus (75)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Font by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Font -300

Jean Silva vs Melsik Baghdasaryan

  • Jean Silva
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 14-2
  • UFC Record: 4-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Drew Dober, Charles Jourdain, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 5-2 striker. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat an 11-0 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Melsik Baghdasaryan
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 8-2
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Collin Anglin. Beat Tucker Lutz, Bruno Souza, and a 4-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Silva by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Silva -400

Alonzo Menifield vs Julius Walker

  • Alonzo Menifield
  • Age: 37
  • UFC Record: 10-5-1
  • Key Draws: Fought Crute to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute. Knocked out Misha Cirkunov, Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Dustin Jacoby.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Julius Walker
  • Age: 25
  • Pro Record: 6-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

I’ve seen a lot of Menifield fights. He’s had 65 striking for so long. But at 37 years of age, I think he’s now regressing as in his last fight with Azamat Murzakanov, he was out struck 43 to 15.

Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Menifield -125

Ion Cutelaba vs Ibo Aslan

  • Ion Cutelaba
  • Age: 31
  • UFC Record: 7-9-1
  • Key Losses: Submitted by Misha Cirkunov.
  • Key Draws: Fought Dustin Jacoby to a split draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Tanner Boser, Khalil Rountree, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Beat Devin Clark. Split decision over Ivan Erslan.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Ibo Aslan
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 14-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Raffael Cerqueira, Anton Turkalj, a 12-2 striker, and a 4-0 grappler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Aslan by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Aslan -135

Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa

  • Andre Fili
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 12-10
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Almeida, Gabriel Benitez, and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Cub Swanson, Bill Algeo, and Charles Jourdain.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Melquizael Costa
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 21-7
  • UFC Record: 2-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Nuerdanbieke Shayilan. Knocked out a 14-2 striker. Beat Austin Lingo, a 4-0 striker, a 9-3 wrestler, and a 13-4 striker.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Costa by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Costa -225

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Nick Klein

  • Mansur Abdul-Malik
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 7-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Dusko Todorovic and Wesley Schultz.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Nick Klein
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 6-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 9-1-1 grappler and a 12-4 grappler.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Klein by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Klein -125

Ricky Simon vs Javid Basharat

  • Ricky Simon
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 9-5
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Urijah Faber.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore and Merab Dvalishvili. Knocked out Raphael Assuncao. Beat Brian Kelleher, Montel Jackson, and Rani Yahya. Split decision over Ray Borg.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Javid Basharat
  • Age: 29
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler. Submitted an 11-1 grappler. Beat Mateus Mendonca, Tony Gravely, and Trevin Jones
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

First Basharat had problems taking Henry down. Then, he takes on Aiemann Zahabi, comes in a monster -750 favorite. And yeah, it looked like Zahabi improved. But Zahabi is 36 years old. Which makes me think part of the upset came because Basharat’s wrestling isn’t as good as we all thought.

Chris’ Pick: Simon by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Simon -200

Nikolay Verettenikov vs Austin Vanderford

  • Nikolay Veretennikov
  • Age: 35
  • Pro Record: 12-5
  • UFC Record: 0-2
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Anthony Ivy and a 5-2 grappler. Beat an 8-1 wrestler.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Austin Vanderford
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 12-2
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-0-1 wrestler and a 7-2 striker. Submitted a 6-2 grappler and a 7-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-1 fighter, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-2-1 grappler, and a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Verettenikov by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Verettenikov -175

Nursulton Ruziboev vs Eric McConico

  • Nursulton Ruziboev
  • Age: 31
  • Pro Record: 36-9-2
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Losses: Lost to an 8-4 wrestler and a well rounded 17-11 fighter.
  • Key Draws: Fought a 3-2 grappler to a draw.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Sedriques Dumas, Brunno Ferreira, a well rounded 8-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-1 fighter, and a well rounded 14-5 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Beat a well rounded 40-9 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: near plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Eric McConico
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 9-2-1
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by a 10-7-2 striker and a 5-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Ruziboev by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ruziboev -400

Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira

  • Modestas Bukauskas
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 4-4
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker. Submitted Marcin Prachnio. Beat Zac Pauga and Tyson Pedro.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Raffael Cerqueira
  • Age: 34
  • Pro Record: 11-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

I know for sure that Prachnio’s striking isn’t better than a 65. Therefore, when Prachnio out strikes Bukauskas 58 to 29 I have no choice but to downgrade his striking to a 60.

Chris’ Pick: Bukauskas by 1st round knockout. Scouting Cerqueira, I thought he only had 55 tools. Market was way, way higher on him, thinking he has 65 tools, going into his UFC debut with Ibo Aslan. But we didn’t get much in that fight as Aslan knocked Cerquieira out quick.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bukauskas -135

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