Cannonier vs Rodrigues, Kattar vs Zalal, Shahbazyan vs Budka Fight Picks – February 15, 2025

Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues

  • Jared Cannonier
  • Age: 40
  • UFC Record: 7-4 at 185 lbs. 10-8 overall.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jack Hermansson, Anderson Silva, and David Branch. Beat Marvin Vettori, Sean Strickland, and Kelvin Gastelum.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Gregory Rodrigues
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 7-3
  • Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Armen Petrosyan.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1-1 grappler. Knocked out Brad Tavares, Dennis Tiuliulin, Chidi Njokuani, Julian Marquez, Jun Yong Park, an 8-3 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a well rounded 3-0 fighter, and a 4-1 grappler. Beat Christian Leroy Duncan and Dusko Todorovic.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Cannonier by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cannonier -200


Calvin Kattar vs Youssef Zalal

  • Calvin Kattar
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 7-6
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Josh Emmett.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Jeremy Stephens, Shane Burgos, Chris Fighgold, and Ricardo Lamas. Beat Giga Chikadze and Dan Ige.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Youssef Zalal
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 6-3-1
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sean Woodson.
  • Key Draws: Fought Da’Mon Blackshear to a majority draw.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Jack Shore,Jarno Errens, Billy Quarantillo, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Kattar by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Kattar -250


Edmen Shahbazyan vs Dylan Budka

  • Edmen Shahbazyan
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 7-5
  • Key Wins: Knocked out AJ Dobson, Dalcha Lungiambula, Brad Tavares, and Charles Byrd.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Dylan Budka
  • Age: 24
  • Pro Record: 7-4
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 15-3 fighter.
  • Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a 3-0 grappler.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Shahbazyan by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Shahbazyan -300


Israel Bonfim vs Nazim Sadykhov

  • Ismael Bonfim
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 20-4
  • UFC Record: 3-1
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Terrance McKinney, an 11-4 wrestler, and a 8-3 wrestler. Beat Vinc Pichel, a 27-3 wrestler, a 6-1 grappler, a well rounded 12-2 fighter, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Nazim Sadykhov
  • Age: 29
  • Pro Record: 9-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Submitted Terrence McKinney. Knocked out a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: plus (70)
  • Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -175


Rodolfo Vieira vs Andre Petroski

  • Rodolfo Vieira
  • Age: 35
  • UFC Record: 4-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Cody Brundage, Dustin Stoltzfus, Oskar Piechota, Saparbek Safarov, and a well rounded 10-0 fighter.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: average (50)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Andre Petroski
  • Age: 33
  • UFC Record: 7-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Nick Maximov and Yaozong Hu. Beat Dylan Budka, Josh Fremd, and Wellington Turman. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: plus (70)

The last time we’ve seen Vieira’s striking for an extended period of time was almost 3 years ago in his loss to Chris Curtis. Showed 60 striking. Is it possible the tool has improved since then? Sure, but we haven’t seen it yet.

Chris’ Pick: Petroski by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petroski -200


Jose Delgado vs Connor Matthews

  • Jose Delgado
  • Age: 26
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 7-0 fighter, a well rounded 4-1 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Connor Matthews
  • Age: 32
  • Pro Record: 7-2
  • UFC Record: 1-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 grappler. Beat a 10-0 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Grappling: a little above average (55)

Slight chance Matthews has 65 wrestling, but more likely it’s a 60.

Chris’ Pick: Matthews by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Matthews -125


Angela Hill vs Ketlen Souza

  • Angela Hill
  • Age: 40
  • UFC Record: 11-11
  • Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
  • Key Wins: Submitted Luana Pinheiro. Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Denise Gomes, Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Ketlen Souza
  • Age: 30
  • Pro Record: 15-4
  • UFC Record: 2-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Yazmin Jauregui. Knocked out a 6-1 grappler. Beat Marnic Mann.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

It might be tempting to look at Souza’s win over Jauregui and think she’s leveled up. But if you look at the numbers, Jauregui was out striking Souza 29 to 16 up until the knock down and submission. So it was a fluky win.

Chris’ Pick: Hill by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hill -200


Jared Gordon vs Mashrabjob Ruzibaev

  • Jared Gordon
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 8-5
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Joaquim Silva. Split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Mark O. Madsen. Beat Leonardo Santos, Danny Chavez, and Chris Fishgold. Split decision over Joe Solecki.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: a little above average (55)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Mashrabjon Ruzibaev
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 19-4-1
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Lot of projection baked into Ruzibaev’s grades because his best win is submitting a well rounded 3-0 fighter. And then when he takes a step up in competition, he loses. It’s very plausible I’m over rating him.

Chris’ Pick: Gordon by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gordon -225


Jesus Aguilar vs Rafael Estevam

  • Jesus Aguilar
  • Age: 28
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Stewart Nicoll, Edgar Chairez, an 11-1 striker, a well rounded 5-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Knocked out Shannon Ross. Beat a 6-2 grappler. Split decision over Mateus Mendonca.
  • Striking: a little above average (55)
  • Power: fringe average (45)
  • Grappling: above average (60)
  • Rafael Estevam
  • Age: 28
  • Pro Record: 12-0
  • UFC Record: 2-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter. Beat Charles Johnson, a 6-1 grappler, and a well rounded 7-1 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Estevam by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Estevam -400


Gabriel Bonfim vs Khaos Williams

  • Gabriel Bonfim
  • Age: 27
  • UFC Record: 4-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Trevin GIles, Mounir Lazzez, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a well rounded 6-2-1 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter. Beat Ange Loosa.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Grappling: plus (70)
  • Khaos Williams
  • Age: 30
  • UFC Record: 6-2
  • Key Losses: Split decision loss to Randy Brown.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Carlston Harris, Miguel Baeza, Abdul Razak Alhassan, and Alex Morono. Beat Matthew Semelsberger and a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over Rolando Bedoya.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Market thought Bonfim’s striking was a 70 going into the Loosa fight and the market was right as Bonfim landed a lot more strikes 85 to 45. Grading his grappling is interesting low. Loosa, who’s wrestling I had as a 60 going in, got 4 take downs in the fight, albeit with only 2 minutes total of ground control, but still. Maybe Loosa’s wrestling got better and it’s a 65 tool, that could be the case. But I think another factor is Bonfim allowing Loosa to level change, duck his head, so that Bonfim could go for a guillotine. I think both are probably true.

Chris’ Pick: Bonfim by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bonfim -350


Elijah Smith vs Vince Morales

  • Elijah Smith
  • Age: 22
  • Pro Record: 7-1
  • UFC Record: 1-0
  • Key Wins: Knocked out a 2-0 striker and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat an 8-0 striker and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)
  • Vince Morales
  • Age: 34
  • UFC Record: 3-7
  • Key Wins: Submitted by Domingo Pilarte. Knocked out a 10-3 wrestler. Submitted a 4-1 grappler in his first pro fight. Beat Louis Smolka, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a 7-1 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Smith by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -300


Don’Tale Mayes vs Valter Walker

  • Don’tale Mayes
  • Age: 32
  • UFC Record: 6-7
  • Key Losses: Knocked out by Allen Crowder. Split decision loss to Hamdy Abdelwahab.
  • Key Wins: Knocked out Andre Arlovski, Josh Parisian, a 10-1 grappler, and a 4-0 striker. Beat Caio Machado. 
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Valter Walker
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 12-1
  • UFC Record: 1-1
  • Key Wins: Submitted Junior Tafa. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over an 8-3 striker.
  • Striking: above average (60)
  • Power: above average (60)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

I have Walker’s striking as a 60, but there is a bit of projection baked in as I haven’t seen enough of his stand up. Have to downgrade Mayes’ wrestling after he was out classed on the ground by Shamil Gaziev.

Chris’ Pick: Mayes by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mayes -175


Julia Avila vs Jacqueline Cavalcanti

  • Julia Avila
  • Age: 36
  • UFC Record: 3-2
  • Key Wins: Submitted Julija Stoliarenko. Beat Pannie Kianzad, Nicco Montano, and Marion Reneau.
  • Striking: near plus (65)
  • Power: near plus (65)
  • Wrestling: above average (60)
  • Jacqueline Cavalcanti
  • Age: 27
  • Pro Record: 8-1
  • UFC Record: 3-0
  • Key Wins: Beat Josiane Nunes, Zarah Fairn, and a 4-1 striker. Split decision over Nora Cornolle.
  • Striking: plus (70)
  • Power: plus (70)
  • Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Cavalcanti by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cavalcanti -250

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