
Dricus Du Plessis vs Sean Strickland 2
- Dricus du Plessis
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Israel Adesanya, Darren Till, a well rounded 7-2-2 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Knocked out Robert Whittaker, Derek Brunson, Trevin Giles, Markus Perez, a 13-2 striker, and a well rounded 30-7 fighter. Beat Brad Tavares. Split decision win over Sean Strickland.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Sean Strickland
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 16-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Abus Magomedov, Brendan Allen and Nordine Taleb. Beat Paulo Costa, Israel Adesanya, Nassourdine Imavov, Uriah Hall, Krzysztof Jotko, and Court McGee. Split decision wins over Jack Hermansson and Tom Breese.
- Striking: plus plus (80)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
After Du Plessis’ got the judges nod in their first fight, at first glance, I came away thinking both are matched really well, that the skills are really close. But after rewatching it and taking a second look at the numbers, Strickland does have an edge in the striking. I’m once again grading Strickland’s striking as a top of the scale 80. He did out strike Du Plessis 173 to 134 after all. And yes, Du Plessis did land 6 take downs on Strickland. But look at the control time. With all 6 take downs combined, Du Plessis only accrued 2 minutes of control time. Thus, Strickland’s wrestling is a 75 for me.
Chris’ Pick: Strickland by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Strickland -175
Zhang Weili vs Tatiana Suarez
- Zhang Weili
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rose Namajunas.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jessica Andrade. Submitted Carla Esparza. Beat Yan Xiaonan, Amanda Lemos, Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and Tecia Torres.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tatiana Suarez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 7-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Jessica Andrade, Montana de la Rosa, and Alexa Grasso. Knocked out Carla Esparza. Beat Nina Nunes.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus plus (80)
It’s hard to grade Suarez because 1) she’s been so in active. Only 2 fights in the last 5 years. And 2) she’s so dominant on the ground that we don’t see too much of her standup. She closed as a -365 favorite over Andrade which means the market has her wrestling firmly at a top of the scale 80 grade. It’s probably an 80, maybe on the lower end. Her striking is more of a mystery though. She out struck Andrade 13 to 8. Maybe it’s a 75, but for now I’m grading it as a 70.
Chris’ Pick: Weili by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Weili -125
Justin Tafa vs Tallison Teixeira
- Justin Tafa
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 4-4
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carlos Felipe.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane, Parker Porter, and Juan Adams.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Tallison Teixeira
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker and a 4-1 striker.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
Not the most confident in grading Teixeira’s striking a 65. I just haven’t seen enough video on him. But currently, it’s the most plausible.
Chris’ Pick: Teixeira by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Teixeira -200
Jimmy Crute vs Rodolfo Bellato
- Jimmy Crute
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 5-4-1
- Key Draws: Fought Menifield to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Michal Oleksiejczuk and Paul Craig. Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas and Sam Alvey.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Rodolfo Bellato
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ihor Potieria, a well rounded 6-0 fighter and a 4-1 striker. Submitted a 5-1 striker and an 11-4 striker. Beat a 15-5 wrestler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Crute returns for his first fight in almost 2 years. He’s winless in his last 4 fights. Only has 2 wins in his last 7 fights. All 4 of his losses during that stretch of 7 fights have been finishes. So even though Crute should have an edge in the wrestling on paper, I can’t trust his durability.
Chris’ Pick: Bellato by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Bellato -125
Jake Matthews vs Francisco Prado
- Jake Matthews
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 12-6
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Andrew Holbrook.
- Key Wins: Submitted Darrius Flowers. Beat Phil Rowe and Jingliang Li.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Francisco Prado
- Age: 22
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Ottman Azaitar, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, a 9-3 striker, and a 5-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
Prado’s striking with Daniel Zellhuber was close to equal in the 1st round of their fight. But then his eye swelled up and he couldn’t see out of it that well the rest of the way. Also, he’s moving up in weight. So based on those two things, there’s a very real chance he shows up with 65 striking. Matthews’ striking is very close to a 70 grade as he out struck Rowe 60 to 32. I was also impressed by his pace and how his cardio held up.
Chris’ Pick: Matthews by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Matthews -275
Jack Jenkins vs Gabriel Santos
- Jack Jenkins
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 12-2
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns, an 8-1 striker. Beat Don Shainis. Split decision over Jamall Emmers.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: a little above average (55)
- Gabriel Santos
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 11-2
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Lerone Murphy.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 13-1 striker and a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Submitted a 10-1 grappler. Beat Zha Yi and Elves Brener.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Jenkins by 3rd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jenkins -250
Tom Nolan vs Slava Borshchev
- Tom Nolan
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 8-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victor Martinez, a 12-1 striker, and a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Slava Borshchev
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Draws: Fought Nazim Sadykhov to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Maheshate, Dakota Bush, and a 7-0 striker. Beat a 4-1 wrestler. Split decision over James Llontop.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Borshchev by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Borshchev -250
Wang Cong vs Bruna Brasil
- Wang Cong
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Victoria Leonardo. Submitted a 5-2 striker. Beat Wu Yanan and a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: near plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Bruna Brasil
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marnic Mann. Submitted a well rounded 2-0 fighter. Beat Molly McCann, Shauna Bannon, and a 5-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
It’s tempting to say Cong is over rated and should have never closed as such a big favorite over Gabriella Fernandes. But the numbers show that up until the knock down, Cong was out striking Fernandes 46 to 18. Big upsets do happen sometimes.
Chris’ Pick: Cong by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cong -225
Colby Thicknesse vs Aleksandre Topuria
- Colby Thicknesse
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-0
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Aleksandre Topuria
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 5-1
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
It’s hard to grade Topuria because he only has 3 pro MMA fights since 2015 and all 3 have lasted less than 2 minutes. I have more confidence his grappling is a 65 vs his striking. Striking could be a 60. I wish there was more video of Thicknesse out there, but I’m decently sure I have him graded accurately. Something else important to mention is that Thicknesse is taking this fight on 2 weeks notice and he’s fighting up a weight class. Usually fights at flyweight.
Chris’ Pick: Topuria by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Topuria -450
Kody Steele vs Zhu Rong
- Kody Steele
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: a little above average (55)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
- Zhu Rong
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 7-2 fighter, and a well rounded 15-5 fighter. Submitted Shin Haraguchi and a 19-4 grappler. Beat Sang Wook Kim.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
I could be wrong, I’ve only seen a couple Steele fights, but his tools are 55’s for me. I know the market is higher on him, but I haven’t seen any numbers or seen anything with my eyes that warrants his tools being above 55’s.
Chris’ Pick: Rong by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rong -300
Kevin Jousset vs Jonathan Micallef
- Kevin Jousset
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Beat Kenan Song. Split decision win over a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jonathan Micallef
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 grappler and a 13-4 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter and a 7-1 grappler.
- Striking: a little above average (55)
- Power: fringe average (45)
- Grappling: above average (60)
After Bryan Battle’s KO over Jousset, I walked away thinking Battle’s striking was a 70. But we got a wake up call when Battle recently fought Randy Brown. I thought it’d be close but instead Brown out struck him 49 to 27 on the feet. Thus, it seems I was over rating Jousset.
Chris’ Pick: Jousset by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jousset -200
Quillan Salkilld vs Anshul Jubli
- Quillan Salkilld
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 3-1 grappler and a 6-1 striker. Submitted a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 9-1 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Anshul Jubli
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 7-1
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 13-1 fighter. Beat a 4-0 striker. Split decision over a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: a little above average (55)
Jubli was running away with the win after 2 rounds had passed in his fight with Mike Breeden. But suddenly, Jubli was out of gas and got knocked out as a result. Salkilld’s cardio and pace is one or two levels about Breeden. Watched him out cardio a top prospect wrestler in Gauge Young on the Contender.
Chris’ Pick: Salkilld by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Salkilld -250