Hernandez vs Dolidze, Erceg vs Osbourne, Hill vs Lucindo Fight Picks – August 9, 2025

Anthony Hernandez vs Roman Dolidze

• Anthony Hernandez
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 8-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Roman Kopylov, a well rounded 10-3 fighter. Knocked out Michel Pereira, Edmen Shahbazyan, and a well rounded 9-0 fighter. Beat Josh Fremd and Brendan Allen.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Roman Dolidze
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 8-3 at 185 lbs. 9-3 overall.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Phil Hawes, Kyle Daukaus, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, a well rounded 15-4 fighter, and a 13-3 wrestler. Beat Laureano Staropoli. Split decision over John Allan.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Hernandez is a unique fighter, in the mold of Colby Covington, who’s cardio elevates all his tools. To where he overwhelms his opponent late in the fight. And Hernandez now returns to 5 round territory which makes him even more dangerous. In a 3 round fight, I’d say Hernandez’s striking is just a 70, but in a 5 round fight, the tool is a 75.

Chris’ Pick: Hernandez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Hernandez -225

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Steve Erceg vs Ode Osbourne

• Steve Erceg
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 3-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell. Submitted Shannon Ross and a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat Alessandro Costa and David Dvorak.
• Striking: near plus plus (75)
• Power: near plus plus (75)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Ode Osbourne
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 6-6
• Key Wins: Knocked out Luis Gurule, Zarrukh Adashev. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat CJ Vergara. Split decision over Charles Johnson.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Erceg might be on a 3 fight losing streak, but he took a hard luck loss last time out as he out struck Brandon Moreno 115 to 87, so there’s no doubt Erceg’s striking has elevated to a 75 grade.

Chris’ Pick: Erceg by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Erceg -600

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Angela Hill vs Iasmin Lucindo

• Angela Hill
• Age: 40
• UFC Record: 12-11
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to Amanda Lemos, Michelle Waterson, and Claudia Gadelha.
• Key Wins: Submitted Luana Pinheiro. Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Denise Gomes, Emily Ducote, Loopy Godinez, Ashley Yoder, and Maryna Moroz. Split decision wins over Ketlen Souza and Livinha Souza.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Iasmin Lucindo
• Age: 23
• UFC Record: 4-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Polyana Viana. Beat Karolina Kowalkiewicz, Brogan Walker and an 8-3 grappler. Split decision wins over Marina Rodriguez and Sarah Frota.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Lucindo by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lucindo -250

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Christian Rodriguez vs Andre Fili

• Christian Rodriguez
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 6-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Joshua Weems. Beat Austin Bashi, Cameron Saaiman, Raul Rosas Jr, and a 5-1 striker. Split decision over Isaac Dulgarian.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Andre Fili
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 12-11
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Michael Johnson.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Lucas Almeida, Gabriel Benitez, and Sheymon Moraes. Split decision wins over Cub Swanson, Bill Algeo, and Charles Jourdain.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Despite the loss, it appears Rodriguez’s striking took a step forward as he out struck Melquizael Costa 29 to 19. And actually, Costa was Fili’s last opponent as well and Costa out struck him 26 to 7.

Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Rodriguez -250

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Jean Matsumoto vs Miles Johns

• Jean Matsumoto
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 16-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Rob Font.
• Key Wins: Submitted Dan Argueta, a 7-0 striker. Beat Brad Katona, a well rounded 6-0 fighter, a 9-1 wrestler, a well rounded 9-2 fighter, a well rounded 4-0 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Miles Johns
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Wins: Submitted a 5-0 striker. Beat Douglas Silva de Andrade, Vince Morales, a 7-1 grappler, a well rounded 11-3 fighter, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Knocked out Kevin Natividad. Beat Cody Gibson. Split decision over Cole Smith and a 7-2 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Matsumoto by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Matsumoto -300

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Christian Leroy Duncan vs Eryk Anders

• Christian Leroy Duncan
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 4-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Claudio Ribeiro, Dennis Tiuliulin, a 5-0 grappler, an 8-0 wrestler, and a 10-2 striker. Beat Andrey Pulyaev.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Eryk Anders
• Age: 38
• UFC Record: 8-6 at 185 lbs.
• Key Losses: Split decision losses to Jun Yong Park, Lyoto Machida, and Elias Theodorou.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Chris Weidman, Kyle Daukaus, and Rafael Natal. Beat Jamie Pickett, Darren Stewart and Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert. 
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Duncan by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Duncan -400

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Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira

• Julius Walker
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 6-1
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alonzo Menifield.
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Raffael Cerqueira
• Age: 35
• Pro Record: 11-2
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-1 fighter. Beat a 4-1 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Walker by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Walker -135

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Elijah Smith vs Toshiomi Kazama

• Elijah Smith
• Age: 22
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 2-0 striker and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Vince Morales, an 8-0 striker, and a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Toshiomi Kazama
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 11-4
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Losses: Submitted Charalampos Grigoriou. Knocked out by a 2-2 wrestler.
• Striking: a little above average (55)
• Power: a little average (55)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Smith by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Smith -250

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Joselyne Edwards vs Priscila Cachoeira

• Joselyne Edwards
• Age: 29
• UFC Record: 6-4
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Chelsea Chandler. Submitted Tamires Vidal, an 8-3 striker. Beat Ramona Pascual and Yanan Wu. Split decision wins over Lucie Pudilova and Ji Yeon Kim.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

• Priscila Cachoeira
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 5-6
• Key Wins: Knocked out Josiane Nunes, Ariane Lipski, Gina Mazany, and Shana Dobson. Beat Ji Yeon Kim.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Edwards -175

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Uros Medic vs Gilbert Urbina

• Uros Medic
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 5-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out Matthew Semelsberger, Omar Morales, Aalon Cruz, and a 7-1 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

• Gilbert Urbina
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 7-3
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Wins: Knocked out Orion Cosce. Submitted a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: above average (60)

In the last 4 years, Urbina has only had 3 pro fights. Hard to expect him to show up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Medic by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Medic -300

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Gabriella Fernandes vs Julija Stoliarenko

• Gabriella Fernandes
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 10-3
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Cong Wang and a 3-0 striker. Beat a 3-0 striker. Split decision over Carli Judice.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Julija Stoliarenko
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 2-1 at 125 lbs. 2-6 overall.
• Key Wins: Submitted Molly McCann and Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision over a 5-0 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Fernandes by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Fernandes -200

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Cody Brundage vs Eric McConico

• Cody Brundage
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 5-6-1
• Key Draws: Fought Mansur Abdul-Malik to a draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Julian Marquez, Zachary Reese and Tresean Gore. Submitted Dalcha Lungiambula and a 4-1 grappler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Eric McConico
• Age: 35
• Pro Record: 9-3-1
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a 10-7-2 striker and a 5-3 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: a little above average (55)

Market seemed to think Mansur Abdul-Malik’s striking was a 65 going into his fight with Brundage. I agreed, although thought that the tool could be closer to a 60. As it turns out, Brundage out struck Abdul-Malik 29 to 18. So either I was right all along, or Brundage has improved his striking to a 65, but I think the former is more plausible for now.

Chris’ Pick: Brundage by decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Brundage -250