Oliveira vs Gamrot, Figueiredo vs Jackson, Luque vs Alvarez Fight Picks – October 11, 2025

Charles Oliveira vs Mateusz Gamrot

• Charles Oliveira
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 23-11
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Armen Tsarukyan.
• Key Wins: Submitted Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Beneil Dariush, Michael Chandler and Nik Lentz. Beat Michael Chandler and Tony Ferguson.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus plus (75)

• Mateusz Gamrot
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 8-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Hooker.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Diego Ferreira, Scott Holtzman, Norman Parke, a well rounded 9-1-1 fighter, a 16-0-1 grappler, and a 15-3 striker. Submitted Jeremy Stephens and a 9-1 grappler. Beat Ludovit Klein, Rafael dos Anjos, Arman Tsarukyan, a 12-3-1 wrestler, a 24-4 grappler, a 21-7 grappler, and a 12-3 grappler. Split decision over Jalin Turner.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus plus (75)

I think this fight could end up playing out very similar to Oliveira vs Arman Tsarukyan. Also, it’s possible Oliveira’s grappling could have regressed to a 70.

Chris’ Pick: Gamrot by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Gamrot -135

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Deiveson Figueiredo vs Montel Jackson

• Deiveson Figueiredo  
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 3-2 at 135 lbs. 13-4-1 overall.
• Key Draws: Fought Brandon Moreno to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Cody Garbrandt, Alex Perez, and Tim Elliott. Beat Marlon Vera, Rob Font, Moreno, and Alex Pantoja.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Montel Jackson
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 10-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Da’Mon Blackshear and Rani Yahya. Beat Daniel Marcos, Julio Arce, JP Buys, and Felipe Corales.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: near plus (70)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Jackson out struck Marcos 27 to 13 solidifying a 70 grade for his striking. Cory Sandhagen out landed Figueiredo 24 to 4 in Figueiredo’s last fight. Plus he sustained a serious knee injury. And that was just 5 months ago. I could be wrong, but it’s possible we see Figueiredo’s skills regress. But we have already been seeing the regression as Yan out struck Figueiredo 103 to 49.

Chris’ Pick: Jackson by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Jackson -250

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Vicente Luque vs Joel Alvarez

• Vicente Luque
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 15-6
• Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price. Also submitted Themba Gorimbo, Michael Chiesa, and Tyron Woodley. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Joel Alvarez
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 7-2
• Key WIns: Submitted Marc Diakiese, Alexander Yakovlev, Joseph Duffy, a 5-1 striker, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 14-2 fighter, and a 9-1 striker. Knocked out Drakkar Klose, Elves Brener, Thiago Moises, and a 12-4 striker.
• Striking: plus (70)
• Power: plus (70)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Alvarez by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Alvarez -200

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Jhonata Diniz vs Mario Pinto

• Jhonata Diniz
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 4-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane and a 7-1 striker. Beat Karl Williams and Alvin Hines.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Mario Pinto
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 10-0
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Austen Lane and a 6-0 striker. Beat a 5-1 striker and a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

Pinto might be getting hype right now after knocking out Lane and people thinking his striking is a 65 or 70, but the reality is that up until the KO, Lane was out striking Pinto 31 to 12. Last year, Diniz out struck Lane 16 to 11.

Chris’ Pick: Diniz by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Diniz -250

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Ricardo Ramos vs Kaan Ofli

• Ricardo Ramos
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 8-6
• Key Wins: Submitted Luiz Garagorri. Beat Bill Algeo and Journey Newsom. Knocked out Danny Chavez. Split decision wins over Josh Culibao and Kyung Ho Kang. 
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Kaan Ofli
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 10-4
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Submitted a 6-1 striker. Beat a 5-2 wrestler and another 5-2 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Ramos’ striking is right on the bubble between being a 60 and 65 but after his last fight with Mariscal, it’s closer to a 65.

Chris’ Pick: Ramos by 2nd round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ramos -225

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Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell

• Lucas Almeida
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 2-4
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Danny Silva.
• Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 striker. Knocked out Michael Trizano, a well rounded 9-3 fighter, a 7-1 wrestler, a 12-3 grappler, and a well rounded 9-2 fighter. Beat Timothy Cuamba.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Michael Aswell
• Age: 24
• Pro Record: 10-3
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Bogdan Grad
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-2 grappler and an 11-4 striker.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: a little above average (55)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Aswell’s striking is right on the bubble between a 65 and a 60.

Chris’ Pick: Almeida by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Almeida -135

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Jafel Filho vs Clayton Carpenter

• Jafel Filho
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 3-2
• Key Losses: Submitted by an 8-4 grappler.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Vinicius Salvador and a 7-1 striker. Submitted Ode Osbourne, Daniel Barez, a well rounded 5-0 fighter, a well rounded 8-3 fighter, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: plus (70)

• Clayton Carpenter
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 3-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Lucas Rocha, Juancamilo Ronderos, a well rounded 3-1 fighter. Knocked out a 5-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Filho by split decision.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Filho -135

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Vitor Petrino vs Thomas Petersen

• Vitor Petrino
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 1-0 at heavyweight. 5-2 overall.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Modestas Bukauskas, Rodolfo Bellato twice, and Gadzhimurad Antigulov. Submitted Austen Lane and Marcin Prachnio. Beat Tyson Pedro and Anton Turkalj.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Thomas Petersen
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 3-2
• Key Wins: Beat Dont’Tale Mayes and Mohammed Usman.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Petrino by 1st round knockout.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Petrino -300

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Irina Alekseeva vs Beatriz Mesquita

• Irina Alekseeva
• Age: 35
• Pro Record: 5-3
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-6 fighter.
• Key Wins: Submitted Stephanie Egger. Beat a 5-2 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: above average (60)

• Beatriz Mesquita
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 5-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: plus (70)

Chris’ Pick: Mesquita by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Mesquita -250

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Lucas Rocha vs Stewart Nicoll

• Lucas Rocha
• Age: 25
• Pro Record: 17-2
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 14-3 fighter, a 7-0 grappler, a 10-3 striker, a well rounded 5-1 fighter, and a 7-2 grappler. Beat an 11-3 wrestler.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Wrestling: a little above average (55)

• Stewart Nicoll
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Chris’ Pick: Nicoll by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Nicoll -135

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Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Julia Polastri

• Karolina Kowalkiewicz
• Age: 39
• UFC Record: 9-9
• Key Losses: Submitted by Claudia Gadelha.
• Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig. Beat Diana Belbita, Vanessa Demopoulos, Silvana Juarez, and Randa Markos. Split decision over Rose Namajunas in 2016.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: fringe average (45)
• Wrestling: above average (60)

• Julia Polastri
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 2-3
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-1 wrestler. Submitted a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 7-2 fighter. Split decision over Cory McKenna.
• Striking: near plus (65)
• Power: near plus (65)
• Wrestling: near plus (65)

Chris’ Pick: Polastri by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Polastri -200

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Luan Lacerda vs Saimon Oliveira

• Luan Lacerda
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 12-3
• UFC Record: 0-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Raulian Paiva, a 9-2 striker, a 5-2 striker, a 9-3 grappler, and a 6-1 striker.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: average (50)
• Grappling: near plus (65)

• Saimon Oliveira
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 18-6
• UFC Record: 1-3
• Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-2 fighter and a 12-2 wrestler. Split decision win over a well rounded 13-5 fighter.
• Striking: above average (60)
• Power: above average (60)
• Grappling: above average (60)

Lacerda returns for his first fight in over 2 years. He very likely shows up improved.

Chris’ Pick: Lacerda by 2nd round submission.

What odds I think the favorite should be at: Lacerda -135