Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan
- Merab Dvalishvili
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 13-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes. Submitted Sean O’Malley. Beat Cory Sandhagen, Umar Nurmagomedov, Henry Cejudo, Petr Yan, Jose Aldo, Casey Kenney, Cody Stamann, John Dodson, and Brad Katona.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Petr Yan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-4
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Sean O’Malley and Aljamain Sterling.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Douglas Silva de Andrade and Urijah Faber. Beat Marcus McGee, Deiveson Figueiredo, Song Yadong, Cory Sandhagen, Jimmie Rivera, and John Dodson.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
Ok so for a bit, I thought Figueiredo had started to regress. I saw Yan pile up the strikes, out landing Figureirdo 103 to 49 and again, chalked it up to Figueiredo taking a step back vs Yan taking a step forward. Figueiredo vs Sandhagen didn’t last long with Figueiredo getting hurt. Then he takes on Montel Jackson. Market had Jackson as a solid 2 to 1 favorite, which I agreed with. Everybody thought Figueiredo was on the decline. But then Figueiredo fights like his usual self. 70 striking, 70 grappling, beats Jackson. So now I have to revisit his fight with Yan and it appears that Yan’s striking may have taken a step forward to a 75 grade after all. The biggest factor in the fight though is that Dvalishvili just cut weight and fought 2 months ago. Historically. fighters that have taken damage and returned that fast have often not looked as good and regretted it. And Sandhagen did land 80 significant strikes on Dvalishvili.
Chris’ Pick: Dvalishvili by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dvalishvili -135
Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 14-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Kai Kara France, Kai Asakura, Alex Perez, Brandon Royval, and Yuta Sasaki. Beat Steve Erceg, Brandon Moreno, and Manel Kape.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
- Joshua Van
- Age: 24
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bruno Silva, Felipe Bunes and a 7-1 wrestler. Beat Brandon Royval, Rei Tsuruya, Cody Durden, and Kevin Borjas. Split decision over Zhalgas Zhumagulov.
- Striking: near plus plus (75)
- Power: near plus plus (75)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
If Van’s wrestling has truly elevated to a 70 grade and he can survive the early storm, I like his cardio way more than Pantoja’s and Van could start to really take over in the 2nd half of the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Van by 4th round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Van -135
Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira
- Brandon Moreno
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-5-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval.
- Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov and Deiveson Figueiredo to draws.
- Key Wins: Submitted Deiveson Figueiredo, Louis Smolka, and Dustin Ortiz. Knocked out Deiveson Figueiredo, Kai Kara France, and Brandon Royval. Beat Steve Erceg, Amir Albazi, Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Tatsuro Taira
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 7-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Brandon Royval.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Alex Perez, Carlos Henrnadez and a 6-1 wrestler. Submitted Hyun Sung Park, Jesus Aguilar, CJ Vergara, and a 6-2 striker. Beat Edgar Chairez and Carlos Candelario.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus plus (75)
After Moreno barely beat Erceg, I think one could make the case that Moreno’s skills are starting to regress. But then Erceg fought Ode Osbourne and looked terrible. Erceg did win, but Osbourne amazingly out struck him 29 to 12. How does that happen? How can you out strike Moreno 115 to 87 and then have Osbourne out class you on the feet? I think this could be a coin flip type fight being that Moreno has never been submitted in his career.
Chris’ Pick: Taira by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Taira -175
Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott
- Henry Cejudo
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 10-5
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dominick Cruz, Marlon Moraes, TJ Dillashaw. Split decision over Demetrius Johnson.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Payton Talbott
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Nick Aguirre. Knocked out Yanis Ghemmouri, Cameron Saaiman, and an 8-1 striker. Beat Reyes Cortez Jr.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
This is a very tough fight to pick because 1) Cejudo says it’s his retirement fight and 2) it seems like Cejudo and Talbott are friends. So both can be big factors in making the outcome here unpredictable. But if you look at Cejudo’s skills in his last 2 fights, he held his own with Merab Dvalishvili on the ground until the very end. And Cejudo’s striking is close to a 75 grade as shown with Song Yadong in his last fight. But. Cejudo says this is his last fight and fighter’s in their retirement fight a lot of times show up with regressed skills.
Chris’ Pick: Cejudo by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Cejudo -125
Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov
- Jan Blachowicz
- Age: 42
- UFC Record: 12-8
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Alex Pereira.
- Key Draws: Fought Magomed Ankalaev to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Aleksandar Rakic, Dominick Reyes, Corey Anderson, Luke Rockhold, and Ilir Latifi. Submitted Nikita Krylov and Devin Clark. Beat Israel Adesanya, Jared Cannonier, and Jimi Manuwa. Split decision over Jacare Souza.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
- Bogdan Guskov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nikita Krylov, Ryan Spann, a well rounded 13-3 fighter and a 4-1 grappler. Submitted Billy Elekana.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Blachowicz by 2nd round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite is at: Blachowicz -125
Grant Dawson vs Manuel Torres
- Grant Dawson
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 11-1-1
- Key draws: Fought Ricky Glenn to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafa Garcia, Leonardo Santos. Submitted Mark O. Madsen, Jared Gordon, and Michael Trizano. Beat Joe Solecki, Damir Ismagulov and Nad Narimani.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus plus (75)
- Grappling: plus (70)
- Manuel Torres
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a well rounded 7-6 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted Chris Duncan, a well rounded 14-5 fighter, and a 12-2 striker. Knocked out Drew Dober, Nik Motta, Frank Camacho, a well rounded 9-3 fighter. Split decision over a 5-2 striker.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Dawson by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Dawson -250
Chris Duncan vs Terrance McKinney
- Chris Duncan
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-1 striker, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, and a 14-5 wrestler. Submitted Jordan Vucenic, Bolaji Oki. Beat Mateusz Rebecki and Yanal Ashmoz. Split decision over Omar Morales.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
- Terrance McKinney
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 7-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brendon Marotte, Mike Breeden, Matt Frevola, and an 11-3 grappler. Submitted Slava Borshchev and Fares Ziam.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: plus (70)
Rebecki out struck Duncan 104 to 85. I’m not sure how the judges thought Duncan won that fight.
Chris’ Pick: McKinney by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: McKinney -225
Maycee Barber vs Karine Silva
- Maycee Barber
- Age: 27
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. JJ Aldrich. and Gillian Robertson. Beat Katlyn Cerminara, Jessica Eye, and Montana de la Rosa. Split decision wins over Andrea Lee and Miranda Maverick.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Karine Silva
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Submitted Maryna Moroz, Ketlen Souza, Poliana Botelho, a well rounded 20-3 fighter, well rounded 7-2 fighter and a well rounded 8-1 fighter. Beat Dione Barbosa and Ariane da Silva.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
I’m still not exactly sure how good Barbosa is, but I can’t grade Silva’s grappling a 70 after seeing Barbosa get the better of her on the ground.
Chris’ Pick: Barber by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Barber -225
Fares Ziam vs Nazim Sadykhov
- Fares Ziam
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Frevola. Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Beat Mike Davis, Jai Herbert, Jamie Mullarkey, and a 4-0 striker. Majority decision over Luigi Vendramini. Split decision over Claudio Puelles.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Nazim Sadykhov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Terrence McKinney. Knocked out Nikolas Motta, Ismael Bonfim, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
At first, the numbers from Sadykhov’s fight with Motta didn’t make sense. But after Bonfim’s latest fight and evidence that everybody has been over rating him, it seems fair to downgrade Sadykhov’s tools. And after doing so, the numbers with the Motta fight line up.
Chris’ Pick: Ziam by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Ziam -300
Marvin Vettori vs Brunno Ferreira
- Marvin Vettori
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 8-7-1
- Key Losses: Lost a split decision to Israel Adesanya.
- Key Draws: Fought Omari Akhmedov to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Karl Roberson. Beat Kevin Holland, Jack Hermansson, Cezar Ferreira, and Andrew Sanchez.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: plus (70)
- Brunno Ferreira
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Jackson McVey, Armen Petrosyan, and a 3-1 striker. Knocked out Dustin Stoltzfus, Phil Hawes, Gregory Rodrigues, a well rounded 10-1 fighter, and a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Grappling: near plus (65)
Vettori might have lost 5 of his last 7 fights, but he’s never been knocked out. And his last fight with Allen, the striking was 100 to 99, showing Vettori’s skills are still intact.
Chris’ Pick: Vettori by decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Vettori -200
Edson Barboza vs Jalin Turner
- Edson Barboza
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 14-11 at 155 lbs. 18-15 overall
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Dan Ige.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Billy Quarantillo, Shane Burgos, Dan Hooker, and Beneil Dariush. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, Makwan Amirkhani, Anthony Pettis, and Gilbert Melendez.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: above average (60)
- Jalin Turner
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 8-4 at 155 lbs. 8-5 overall.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Bobby Green, Josh Culibao, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a well rounded 5-1 fighter. Submitted Brad Riddell and Uros Medic.
- Striking: plus (70)
- Power: plus (70)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
Chris’ Pick: Turner by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Turner -250
Ibo Aslan vs Iwo Baraniewski
- Ibo Aslan
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Raffael Cerqueira, Anton Turkalj, a 12-2 striker, and a 4-0 grappler.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Iwo Baraniewski
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 6-0
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-0 striker.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Aslan by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite shoud be at: Aslan -225
Mansur Abdul Malik vs Antonio Trocoli
- Mansur Abdul Malik
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 8-0-1
- UFC Record: 3-0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Cody Brundage to a majority draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Nick Klein, Dusko Todorovic, and Wesley Schultz.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: above average (60)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Antonio Trocoli
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-5
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 7-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 7-1 fighter and a 3-1 grappler.
- Striking: above average (60)
- Power: average (50)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
The narrative is that Abdul-Malik is a knockout artist, and yes, he does have 3 KO’s in the UFC. But his striking tool is only a 60 for me. I’ve seen Brundage in 12 UFC fights. I know his striking is a 60. So when Brundage out strikes Abdul-Malik 29 to 18, there’s no way I can grade Abdul-Malik’s striking a 65.
Chris’ Pick: Abdul Malik by 1st round knockout.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Abdul-Malik -135
Mairon Santos vs Muhammed Naimov
- Mairon Santos
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 16-1
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Kaan Ofli, a 5-0 striker and a 6-2 grappler. Beat Sodiq Yusuff, a 7-1 wrestler and a well rounded 14-4 fighter. Split decision win over Francis Marshall.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Muhammad Naimov
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jamie Mullarkey and a 4-1 striker. Beat Bogdan Grad, Kaan Ofli, and Nathaniel Wood. Split decision win over a 2-0-1 fighter.
- Striking: near plus (65)
- Power: near plus (65)
- Wrestling: near plus (65)
- Grappling: above average (60)
Chris’ Pick: Santos by split decision.
What odds I think the favorite should be at: Santos -125