-Robert Whittaker: I say it over and over again, it’s not 100%, but vast majority of the time, whoever wins the first fight, also wins the rematch. Now, I’m tempted to pick Yoel Romero because the strategy he used in his knockout win over Luke Rockhold was perfect for him. Pacing himself. Being very selective on when to explode. The first fight between Romero and Whittaker, Romero tried to use his wrestling to take Whittaker down and couldn’t. So this rematch is likely to be a different fight, with Romero fighting like he did against Rockhold. And very possible Romero catches Whittaker and knocks him out. But I think it’s more likely that Whittaker uses his speed, makes the pace of the fight much faster than Romero wants and once again use his cardio to wear Romero down towards the end. That’s the most likely outcome. And I don’t like picking fighters that openly talk about how they’re one or two fights away from retiring. So I like Whittaker by decision.
-Colby Covington: Putting aside all the trash talk that’s gone on, this is actually a very interesting fight stylistically. Both Rafael dos Anjos and Covington are pretty similar. Wrestling is their base. Both have a solid submission game. Both have improved a lot in the stand up. For me, I got to give Covington the edge in that he has way less fight mileage on him. Like, did you know dos Anjos has been in the UFC for 10 years?? Crazy! 24 fights in the UFC. I got to believe that Covington is going to be more durable because of that. Plus, Covington should be the much bigger fighter and that matters when it comes to wrestling. And Covington is less likely to fight emotional than dos Anjos. These reasons are small and somewhat intangible, but it’s all I got because both are so evenly matched. I’m picking Covington by split decision.
-Holly Holm: This idea that Megan Anderson is a title contender is preposterous. The only reason why Anderson is getting this fight is because the women’s 145 lb division is so barren and Anderson happens to have a 8-2 pro record. But big deal. Anderson hasn’t beaten any decent prospects or fighters. She’s feasted on tomato cans and older opponents at the end of their careers. Some over 40 years old. Holm is world class and the beat down she’s going to put on Anderson is going to be just as ugly as what Valentina Shevchenko did to Priscilla Cachoeira a couple months ago. Ugly, ugly 1st round knockout for Holm.
-Tai Tuivasa: I’m not buying into this whole Andrei Arlovski is back thing with him still being 39 years old and the two guys Arlovski recently beat, Stefan Struve and Junior Albini, I’m not that impressed with. Tuivasa is an elite prospect. 7 fights. 7 1st round knockouts. And yeah, I would like to see Tuivasa tested against someone with wrestling and a ground game, but that’s not what Tuivasa is getting with Arlovski. I’ve seen Arlovski get knocked out so many times the past few years, I think Tuivasa gets the knockout in the 1st.
-CM Punk: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Punk looked really terrible in his UFC debut against Mickey Gall, but turns out Gall is a really good prospect. Mike Jackson is not Gall. Jackson has 1 pro fight and 1 amateur fight. Both losses. Reports are that Punk’s best skills are in ju-jitsu and wrestling. Jackson has a striking background. Seems like the UFC was extra careful in booking the absolute best matchup for Punk to give him the best chance to win. And I think he does, I think he eats some punches, grabs Jackson and is able to take him down and do enough on the ground to win by decision.
-Curtis Blaydes: If you look around the UFC’s heavyweight division, you’re not going to see many elite wrestlers in the division. So it’s hard to get a gauge on whether or not Alistair Overeem is going to be able to stuff Blaydes’ take downs. I just can’t imagine Overeem spending that much time improving his wrestling, when none of the top guys are a threat in that area. Overeem is 38 years old, coming off a devastating knockout loss. I just can’t see Overeem being able to stop Blaydes from taking him down. And Blaydes will have such an advantage on the ground, I see a 2nd round knockout via ground and pound.
-Claudia Gadelha: Worst possible matchup for Carla Esparza. She’s been on a bit of a roll lately by using her wrestling to out grapple her opponents. But now she takes on Gadelha who’s, at worse, equal to Esparza on the wrestling. Because of that, I predict Gadelha makes this fight take place on the feet where she’ll have a big striking advantage and will easily take the decision win.
-Mirsad Bektic: Bektic’s only loss was a tactical mistake he made against Darren Elkins. He emptied his gas tank trying to finish Elkins, not realizing how durable he is. Gassed himself out and Elkins finished and shocked Bektic. Besides that, Bektic looks like he’s going to get a title shot at 145 lbs in the next couple years. Ricardo Lamas is pretty similar to Bektic. Top tool is his wrestling. Well rounded. Lamas might have a bit of an advantage on the ground, but Bektic will use his wrestling to make sure the fight stays on the feet which will then enable Bektic to knock Lamas out in the 1st round.
-Rashad Coulter: How dreadfully thin the heavyweight division is. Coulter’s original opponent Allen Crowder gets hurt, so the best the UFC can do on short notice? 39 year Chris de la Rocha who’s 0-2 in the UFC so far with a 4-2 pro record. Based on Coulter having a full training camp, having more pro experience and losing to much better competition than de la Rocha, I’m going with Coulter by an entertaining and sloppy 1st round knock out.
-Anthony Smith: Rashad Evans’ career is done. He should have stayed at 205 lbs where he’s been champion. He returns to that weight class. Smith is also way better suited for 205 lbs and I think he can be a very sturdy, upper tier gate keeper. Unfortunately Evans doesn’t have much of a chin left and Smith is going to knock him out in the 1st round.
-Joseph Benavidez: Pretty insane this fight is on Fight Pass. Easy fight to predict though. Henry Cejudo exposed the big hole in Sergio Pettis’ game with is a lack of take down defense. And Benavidez is almost as good of a wrestler as Cejudo. I think Benavidez sees how things go on the feet. And if Benavidez does get out struck, which is not a given, he’ll have no problem taking Pettis down. Why not go for the path of least resistance? Benavidez by 2nd round submission.
-Clay Guida: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Long time vets Guida and Charles Oliveira square off. 25 UFC fights for Guida. 19 for Oliveira. Guida’s been more on a roll lately, going back to his bread and butter which is his wrestling and relying on that more than getting in a stand up war and coming out with injuries. But the big difference in the fight is going to be Guida’s cardio. Already suffocating for most of Guida’s opponents, but Oliveira is taking this fight on a week and a half’s notice. No way he’s going to be able to keep up. Guida by decision.
-Dan Ige: At first glance, you’d think Mike Santiago is well rounded. 20 wins. 7 knockouts. 9 submissions. So it’s interesting to me that Santiago lost his first 2 UFC fights by being outgrappled. Well, after looking closer at Santiago’s 9 submission wins, every single one of them came against either a tomato can with a losing record or a journeyman type fighter with a .500 record. In other words, Santiago will submit a below average fighter when they have no ground game. Turns out that when Santiago had his big breakthrough on the regional circuit the past couple years, it’s been with his standup. His wrestling game is lacking, so when he takes on someone with better wrestling and decent submission skills, that’s the type of fighter he loses to. And enter Ige, who is exactly that type of fighter. Mainly a grappler. With solid enough wrestling to be able to take Santiago down and do enough to win via decision.