-James Vick: There’s a reason why the top lightweights have been avoiding Vick. His reach creates problems. Especially since he’s improved a ton in his stand up the past couple years and figured out a way to unlock his knockout power. Vick has a total of 3 knockouts in his career. 2 of the 3 have come in 2 of his his last 3 UFC fights. And despite all of Justin Gaethje’s strengths, he gets hit a lot in the stand up. I think Vick will tag him a lot more than Gaethje will tag Vick. And even if Geathje tries for a take down, I think Vick is dangerous off his back and would be able to scramble back to his feet if he needed to. I don’t see how Gaethje wins this fight and I actually think Vick knocks him out in the 3rd round.
-Andre Fili: UPSET SPECIAL 1: Really close fight between Fili and Michael Johnson. When the fight was announced my knee jerk reaction was oh, Johnson is going to knock Fili out when they stand and trade. But after taking a closer look at how both fighters have been doing, Johnson has lost 5 of his last 6 fights. He’s 32 years old. And he’s now taking his 2nd fight at 145 lbs which I don’t think is a healthy weight for him. Most fighters when they start to age, they actually move up in weight with cuts being harder on their bodies. Fili is 6-4 in the UFC but has a 18-5 pro record. 28 years old. Fili is in his prime in a healthy weight class. He’s fast. Has better technical striking. And I think he’s going to be quick enough to avoid Johnson’s power shots. I see Johnson starting to fade in the 2nd round and Fili taking over to help him win by decision.
-Cortney Casey: UPSET SPECIAL 2: Don’t let Casey’s 7-6 pro record fool you. She’s really good. She was even the betting favorite against Michelle Waterson. But Waterson won with speed and better technical striking. But that’s not going to be the case with Angela Hill who has pretty good stand up, but not on Casey’s level. Plus Casey has more power too which will give Hill problems. Casey is going to win a convincing decision here.
-Bryan Barberena: Barberena is extremely under rated. Not Rani Yahya under rated, but still pretty under rated. He’s 4-3 in the UFC, but all 3 losses have come against top guys. He’s got solid wrestling. Slightly above average striking. Has knockout power. And I’m not sure how Jake Ellenberger keeps getting fights in the UFC. He’s lost 8 of his last 10 fights. That’s got to be the worst losing stretch in any weight division in the UFC right now. And it’s in the crowded 170 lb class. Ellenberger’s chin is gone and this is going to be a quick 1st round knockout for Barberena.
-Deiveson Figueiredo: Such a great fight. If I was in charge of deciding the order of the fights, this would be the co main event, but the flyweights don’t get much love. Ok so, Moraga has been using his wrestling more. And he’s had a recent surge since upsetting massive favorite and elite prospect Magomed Bibulatov. So how is elite prospect Figueiredo any different? Completely different fighter. Bibulatov lost because Moraga’s wrestling was decent enough to keep the fight on the feet long enough for Moraga to knock him out. But Figueiredo’s a stand up guy. And I’d grade his striking as even better than Moraga’s. So Moraga might want to get the fight to the ground, but I’m convinced Jarred Brooks is a better wrestler than Moraga. And if Brooks couldn’t beat Figueiredo with wrestling, I highly doubt Moraga can. So because of that, I’m rolling with Figueiredo by decision.
-Eryk Anders: This is going to be an ugly fight. And by ugly, I mean ugly for Tim Williams who has no path to victory here. He’s a submission specialist and when he can’t take his opponent down, he’s easily out struck. Anders wins easy with a 1st round knockout.
-Warlley Alves: This fight is going to be closer than the experts think. James Krause has sneaky upset potential here moving up to 170 lbs for the first time in awhile where there’s a legit chance he looks a lot better than at 155 lbs. But there’s a giant disparity in the competition Krause and Alves have faced. Alves has wins over Colby Covington, Alan Jouban, Nordine Taleb. Krause has zero wins like that. His wins have all been against below average UFC competition. Main thing Alves needs to improve is his wrestling and working off his back. But Krause doesn’t have the skills to exploit Alves’ weakness like Kamaru Usman and Bryan Barberena did. Krause and Alves are similar fighters. Decent stand up. But their best tools are grappling and submissions. Problem for Krause is that Alves’ skills are on another level and see him picking up the decision win.
-Cory Sandhagen: Iuri Alcantara’s been a quality mid tier gate keeper for a lot of years. He’s 38 years old now. His career will be coming to an end soon, but he’s here to test Sandhagen. Both fighters are well rounded. But Sandhagen is a very good prospect and has finished a few solid opponents outside the UFC. Only real weakness Sandhagen has is that he can be outwrestled, but not by Alcantara. I think Sandhagen shines and wins by decision.
-Markus Perez: I’m not impressed at all with Andrew Sanchez. I had a low opinion about Ryan Janes and expected Sanchez to look good in that fight, but Janes knocked Sanchez out. Perez is an elite prospect. And its early, he’s only had 2 fights in the UFC, but I see him as a potential title contender at 185 lbs. He’s solid everywhere and fighters like that have a chance to become champon. Perez wins this easy. 1st round knockout.
-Mickey Gall: Yeah, yeah, George Sullivan is a wrestler. Gall only has 5 pro fights, is a submission specialist, and what’s Gall going to do when he probably won’t be able to take Sullivan down. That’s one way of looking at the fight. But for me, I do see Gall being able to take Sullivan down. Niko Price did it and Gall is a way better grappler. Gall is green, but he does have a legit win over Sage Northcutt. Sullivan is 37 years old and not what he used to be. 2 of Sullivan’s last 3 losses have come via submission. So it shows he can be submitted if taken down. I think that’s what Gall does and taps him out in the 2nd round.
-Kalindra Faria: UPSET SPECIAL 3: The story on JoJo Calderwood has been the same and hasn’t changed over the years. Fantastic kickboxer. But she’s made almost no progress in becoming more well rounded. So she’ll out strike other legit strikers like Valerie Letourneau and Cortney Casey but will lose to grapplers and wrestlers. Faria is well rounded, has solid grappling and it’s going to give Calderwood fits like it always has. Calderwood is now 31 years old with 6 fights in the UFC. I just don’t see dramatic change coming in this fight. I think she’s at her ceiling and is who she is. So Faria will grapple, clinch, probably even take Calderwood down and Faria will pick up a submission win in the 2nd round.
-Drew Dober: Dober has really come into his prime. He’s 4 and 5 in his last 5 fights. Only loss was to potential contender Oliver Aubin-Mercier. He looks like he’s figured out how to tap in to his knockout power. I thought Jon Tuck had a lot of potential when he made his UFC debut, but he hasn’t really developed or gotten better. He’s 4-4 in the UFC and has been more of a lower tier gate keeper. He’s well rounded. Pretty good striker and grappler. But no stand out tools. Dober has the best tool in this fight and that’s his striking. Dober’s figured out a way to be even bigger at lightweight and I don’t see Tuck being able to take Dober down. Fight stays on the feet. Dober lights Tuck up with strikes. But Dober wins by decision because of how durable Tuck is.
-Rani Yahya: Easiest fight to pick on the card by a long shot. Because Yayha is possibly THE most under rated fighter in the UFC. Yahya’s UFC record? 10-3. 5 of the 10 wins have come via submission. He should be ranked in the top 10, if not the top 5 of the 135 lb division, but somehow he’s not even ranked. It’s craziness. Anyway, Luke Sanders is mainly a striker. Not a grappler. He’s got average wrestling. He’ll have nothing for Yayha. 1st round submission.