-Santiago Ponzinibbio: Even though, Neil Magny is being billed as a contender, the reality is, he’s never beat any top guys. And yes, he has beat guys with big names like Carlos Condit, but they were all over the hill when Magny fought them. And the split decision win over Kelvin Gastelum, Gastelum wasn’t the same guy at 170 lbs as he is at 185 lbs. Ponzinibbio has been way more impressive over much better quality competition. And Ponzinibbio’s first loss was against Ryan LaFlare due to wrestling. But Ponzinibbio has gotten much better at his take down defense as shown in his fight against grappling ace Gunnar Nelson. So the fight is going to stay on the feet and Ponzinibbio will knock Magny out in the 2nd round.
-Darren Elkins: UPSET SPECIAL: I think Ricardo Lamas is much closer to the end of his career than Elkins. Elkins has been on a real roll lately, despite losing to new contender Alex Volkanovski. Elkins has found who he is. Elite durability. Plus wrestling, clinching. And I think he puts those attributes on display with Lamas. Like the wrestling might cancel out, but I see Elkins being able to grind Lamas in this fight. Mixing in takedowns, pushing him against the fence. And scoring enough points to win by decision.
-Khalil Rountree: Light heavyweight is probably the thinnest division in the UFC. Johnny Walker is an average prospect. Seems one dimensional. Striker. 12 of his 14 wins were over cans. But for light heavyweight, he’s one of the better prospects. He beat UFC vet Henrique da Silva by decision. So that’s ok. But Rountree looks like a real, possible contender in the division. His striking and knockout power is elite. He just needs to work on his cardio and take down defense. But against Walker in a stand up fight, Rountree is going to knock him out in the 1st.
-Cezar Ferreira: Ferreira has been on a roll too winning 5 of his last 6 fights. And at 33 years old, it’s not that common to be getting so much better at his age. But he’s seems to have settled in and discovered what he is. A very strong grappler with plus submissions. Ian Heinisch is taking this fight on short notice. Is well rounded. But he’s an average prospect with no real standout tools. I see Ferreira doing exactly what he did to Karl Roberson in his last fight which is taking him down and submitting him in the 1st round.
-Marlon Vera: Vera is a dark horse contender at 135 lbs, despite his 5-4 record in the UFC. He made his UFC debut at 21 years old. He’s 25 now and really improving. He started out as mostly a grappler, but 2 of his last 3 wins have come via knockout. In this fight against Guido Cannetti, it’s been proven that if you can take Cannetti down, he can be submitted. I think Vera will be able to do just that and submit Cannetti in the 1st round.
-Cynthia Calvillo: I really think this fight should be the co-main event. I think Calvillo and Poliana Botelho will both eventually get title shots at 115 lbs. Grappler vs striker here. But Calvillo is going to have a sizable experience advantage here. Calvillo has 6 wins over UFC fighters, including another up and coming contender in Aspen Ladd. And Botelho’s only loss came against UFC vet Viviane Perreira, due to Perreira having the ability to take Botelho down. Yes, it’s rare for a female fighter like Botelho to have 6 knockouts in 7 wins. But I don’t think she’ll be able to utilize it against Calvillo who will take her down. Because of that, I like Calvillo by decision.
-Michel Prazeres: Prazeres continues to be one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC. He’s 9-2 in the UFC. But nowhere close to a title shot and this fight against Bartosz Fabinski won’t move the needle for him either. He’s 37 years old. A wrestler that puts on boring fights and the UFC is hoping he retires soon so they’re not forced to have him knock off marketable contenders. Fabinski is really similar to Prazeres, but Prazeres wrestling is on another level. I actually think Prazeres is able to take Fabinski down and win in typical Prazeres fashion, via decision.
-Alexandre Pantoja: Ulka Sasaki has proved to be a pretty good mid tier gate keeper. He’s a grappler and will beat opponents he can out grapple. But the upper tier of the flyweights that are well rounded and keep the fight on the feet, he loses to. And Pantoja is one of those guys. He’s headed in the direction of a title shot in the next year or two. And if Brandon Moreno couldn’t take Pantoja down, neither will Sasaki. So I’m confident this is going to be a stand up fight where Pantoja dominates and knocks Sasaki out in the 2nd round.
-Humberto Bandenay: Once upon a time Austin Arnett looked like a top prospect. But since fighting on the Contender Series, he’s lost 3 in a row and I think Bandenay is a really tough opponent to get his confidence back. Both are pretty well rounded, but Bandenay has really improved his striking in the past couple years. The 3 fighters Arnett has lost to have all been mostly strikers and I think Bandenay will also be able to keep the fight on the feet and out strike Arnett for a decision win.
-Laureano Staropoli: Toughest fight for both fighters that they’ve ever had in their careers. Except I’ve already seen Hector Aldana lose to weaker competition. There’s not much track record for both. Both have only beaten cans. But I think Staropoli has the best tool in this fight and that’s his striking. I think fight plays out on the feet and Staropoli out points Aldana for the decision win.
-Jesus Pinedo: Tough fight to pick. Devin Powell is a below average prospect, but he’s coming off a decent knockout win. Pinedo is interesting because even though he’s 15-4, 3 of those losses came when he was 18 years and fighting really tough competition. His last loss was 3 years ago when he was 19 years old. Powell is more well rounded than Pinedo and it’s possible he could grapple Pinedo to the ground, but I like Pinedo’s talent and upside a lot more and think he’s going to blitz Powell and knock him out in the 1st round.
-Nad Narimani: On the surface, Sergio Giglio looks like he could be a top prospect. 12-0. 21 years old. But every single one of those wins came against cans or pro debuting fighters. And now Giglio is fighting Narimani on short notice? That’s way too much, too soon. Giglio and Narimani are somewhat similar. Both grapplers. But Narimani’s wrestling is way better and he’ll be able to decide if he wants to strike with Giglio or take him down. Either way, I see Narimani taking Giglio down and TKOing on the ground in the 2nd.
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