-Israel Adesanya: Real coin flip here. Adesanya is 30 years old. Undefeated. 17-0 pro record. 6-0 UFC record. Really had a coming out party by knocking out Derek Brunson in the 1st round. And I felt like his fight with Anderson Silva was a sparring match he could’ve finished at any time. And the win over Kelvin Gastelum showed him over coming adversity in almost getting knocked out a couple times. Plus plus striking. Plus power. Above average wrestling. Robert Whittaker is 28 years old. 11-2 in the UFC overall. 9-0 UFC record at 185 lbs. His biggest wins have been over Jacare Souza and 2 razor close wins over Yoel Romero. Whittaker has plus plus striking. Plus power. Plus wrestling. Whittaker isn’t known as a wrestler, because he always prefers to stand and trade but his take down defense is elite. But in terms of using the wrestling to maybe take Adesanya down, I don’t think he’ll be able to do it. I think this is a cut and dry kick boxing fight. And it’s a coin flip to guess who has the better striking. But I just think if Whittaker was barely able to out strike Romero, I know Adesanya’s striking is better than Romero’s. Based on that and Adesanya’s momentum, I’m picking Adesanya by split decision.
-Dan Hooker: Really interesting fight. Hooker is 29 years old and really coming into his prime. 8-4 in the UFC overall, but he’s been way better at 155 lbs where he’s put up a 5-1 record. He got out classed striking wise against Edson Barboza but knocking out James Vick and especially Gilbert Burns was really impressive. Easy plus striking. And he’s also got sneaky grappling that is above average. Al Iaquinta is 32 years old. 9-4 UFC record. His coming out party was fighting Khabib on short notice and not getting finished. Then he beat Kevin Lee by a close decision. Plus wrestling. Above average striking paired with plus power. He does well in fights against other wrestlers whose striking isn’t on his level, but he struggles against better strikers. The fight is interesting because I don’t know if Hooker’s grappling is good enough to stuff Iaquinta’s take downs. Iaquinta does have a path to win if he can keep Hooker on the ground long enough, but I’ve seen Hooker enough to predict that he’ll be able to get back up if taken down and will out strike Iaquinta. I even think he knocks Iaquinta out in the 2nd round.
-Tai Tuivasa: Sergey Spivak is 24 years old. Very young for a heavyweight. 9-1 pro record. Got knocked out in his UFC by Walt Harris. All wins over cans. Average striking and average grappling. Tuivasa is on the path to being a contender. 26 years old. 3-2 in the UFC but lost to Junior dos Santos and Blagoi Ivanov. Plus striking. As long Tuivasa keeps the fight on the feet, he should have an easy time here. I think he can and we’re looking at a 1st round knockout for Tuivasa.
-Dhiego Lima: If you include TUF fights, Lima has a 9-5 UFC record. 30 years old. Finally broke through knocking out Chad Laprise last year. And the win over wrestler Court McGee probably also boosted Lima’s confidence. Lima has above average striking and average grappling. Luke Jumeau is 31 years old. 13-4 pro record. 2-1 UFC record. Lost to Shinsho Anzai. His other 2 wins were decisions against fighters who the UFC has cut. He’s got average striking and average grappling. Lima has the best tool in this fight, his stand up. I think he builds on his momentum and knocks Jumeau out in the 2nd round.
-Holly Holm: I don’t see how this fight goes any different than the first time these two fought. Holm is now 37 years old. 5-5 UFC record. All 5 losses came against UFC champions. Plus striking paired with above average power. Raquel Pennington is 31 years old. 7-4 UFC record. The quality of wins she has isn’t on the same level as Holm. Pennington also lost to Jessica Andrade a few years ago who now fights at 115 lbs. Pennington has above average striking. Pretty basic fight where Holm stays on the outside using her speed. She’s going to out point Pennington and win by decision.
-Jake Matthews: Showcase fight for Matthews who I still think is a future title contender. Still only 25 years old. 7-4 UFC record. Has been a lot better at 170 lbs with a 3-1 record. One of the wins was over Jingliang Li. Got out wrestled by Rocco Martin. Striking and grappling are both darn near plus. Wrestling is the big area he needs to get better at. But he’s not going to get challenged at all by Rostem Akman. 27 years old. 6-1 pro record. All wins over cans. Lost his UFC debut to Sergey Khandozhko. Average striking. Matthews is better everywhere. He’ll take Akman down and will submit him in the 1st round.
-Megan Anderson: This won’t be a competitive fight. Anderson is 29 years old. 9-4 pro record. 1-2 in the UFC but all 3 fights have been against the top #5 in the division. TKO win over Cat Zingano. Losses to Holly Holm and Felicia Spencer. But based on Anderson’s track record outside the UFC, I grade her striking as plus. Zarah dos Santos is 32 years old. 6-2 pro record. All wins over cans. And she lost to a 1-0 fighter and 2-3 fighter. All skills are below average, but striking would be her best tool. Anderson is going to knock her out pretty quick in the 1st round.
-Nadia Kassem: Should be a pretty close fight. Kassem is 23 years old. 5-1 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC so far. Lost to potential contender Montana de la Rosa. All wins outside the UFC were over cans. Kassem has average striking with the upside of it someday being a plus tool. Ji Yeon Kim is 29 years old. 8-2 pro record. 2-2 UFC record. Both wins were split decision wins, over Justine Kish and Melinda Fabian. She’s well rounded, but all of her tools are average. It’s possible Kim could get Kassem in the clinch or take her down. Kim does have a legit chance to win this fight. But I think it’s likely Kassem takes a step forward in her development. Uses her speed to keep the fight at range and out strikes Kim to take a close split decision win.
-Khalid Taha: Bruno Silva hasn’t been that active with only 2 fights in the last 2 years. 29 years old. 10-3 pro record. All wins over cans. Although he does have a draw from a couple years ago against rising contender Casey Kenney. Well rounded. Average striking. Average wrestling. Average submissions. He takes on Taha who’s a much better prospect. 27 years old. 13-2 pro record. 1-1 in the UFC. Got out grappled by Nad Narimani, but bounced back to knock out Boston Salmon. Taha also has wins over a 10-2 grappler and a 5-1 grappler. But they were close decision wins. Above average striking. Taha won’t have the jitters. His striking is the best tool in the fight. And Taha has fought better grapplers than Silva. Fight stays on the feet. Taha knocks Silva out in the 2nd round.
-Yorgan de Castro: I underestimated de Castro once and it won’t happen again. De Castro is 32 years old. 5-0 pro record. Knocked out a pretty good prospect on the Contender Series. All other wins over cans. Average striking. Justin Tafa is even greener. 24 years old. 3-0 pro record. All wins over cans. Average striking. Tafa obviously has more long term upside, but I favor de Castro in this fight due to the experience advantage. De Castro will out point Tafa on the feet to win by decision.
-Maki Pitolo: Pitolo is 28 years old. Won his UFC debut in knocking out a 7-2 striker. All other wins over cans. Average striking. Callan Potter is a journeyman at 35 years old. 17-8 pro record. He’s in the UFC because he took a short notice fight a few months ago. All tools are below average. His grappling is probably his best tool. Pitolo shouldn’t have much problem knocking Potter out in the 1st round.
-Brad Riddell: On paper, if you look at just the records, you’d think this is a mismatch where Jamie Mullarkey should starch Riddell. Mullarkey is 25 years old. 8-2 pro record. But all his wins are over cans. One of his loses was against UFC title contender Alexander Volkanovski. Obviously no shame there. But the other loss, he got knocked out by a 5-6 striker. So Mullarkey is making his UFC debut coming off 2 losses in a row. Pretty strange. All of Mullarkey’s tools are below average, but his striking is his best tool. And then you look at Riddell with a 2-0 pro record. 26 years old. Shouldn’t he be on the Contender Series? But in Riddell’s 2nd pro fight, he knocked out a 12-3 striker named Kenan Song. The same Song who’s currently in the UFC with a 3-1 record. Wow. 2 pro fights is a small sample size but to knock someone out like Song, Riddell’s striking has to be at least above average. Maybe even plus. Either way, if a 5-6 striker can knock Mullarkey out and if Riddell can knock Song out, that’s enough for me to pick Riddell by 1st round knockout.
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