Figueiredo vs Montero, Ferguson vs Oliveira, Moicano vs Fiziev Fight Picks

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno

• Deiveson Figueiredo  
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 9-1
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joseph Benavidez, Marco Beltran, and John Moraga. Submitted Alex Perez and Tim Elliott. Beat Alex Pantoja.
• Tools: Figueiredo has near plus plus striking (75). He also has plus wrestling (70) and plus grappling (70).

• Brandon Moreno
• Age: 26
• UFC Record: 6-2-1
• Key Draws: Fought Askar Askarov to a draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Brandon Royval. Knocked Dustin Ortiz down and submitted him. Also submitted Louis Smolka. Beat Kai Kara-France. Split decision over Ryan Benoit. 
• Tools: Moreno has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus grappling (70).

Moreno presents a much different challenge to Figueiredo than Perez did. There was the possibility of Perez’s knockout power catching Figueiredo. Maybe his wrestling would be better. Whereas with Moreno, it’s possible his grappling could be better than Figueiredo. Moreno has improved his grappling in his past 2 fights, so much so that I’ve upgraded the tool to a 70. He stuffed Jussier Formiga’s takedowns. Formiga has 70 wrestling. And he also took Royval down and controlled him for most of the 1st round in their fight. But the bigger threat to Figueiredo is Moreno’s durability, which could make this fight go all 5 rounds. How would Figueiredo’s cardio hold up? Moreno went 5 rounds with Sergio Pettis. He has that experience and probably does have better cardio. So that’s the threat. But despite that, I’m still pretty confident in picking Figueiredo. I think Figueiredo forces this fight to stay on the feet. And Moreno lacks knockout power. I see Figueiredo going hard the first couple rounds going for the knockout and I think he’ll get it.

Chris’ Pick: Figueiredo by 2nd round knockout.

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Tony Ferguson vs Charles Oliveira

• Tony Ferguson
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 18-2
• Key Wins: Submitted Edson Barboza and Kevin Lee. Knocked out Donald Cerrone and Anthony Pettis. Beat Rafael dos Anjos.
• Tools: Ferguson has near plus plus striking (75) and plus grappling (70).

• Charles Oliveira
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 17-8
• Key Wins: Submitted Kevin Lee, Jim Miller, and David Teymur. Knocked out Nik Lentz.
• Tools: Oliveira has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).

So what happened to Ferguson? He was supposed to beat Justin Gaethje. He was more than a 2 to 1 favorite. Did his skills regress? He is 36 years old. After watching his last couple fights, I’m convinced that Ferguson was the victim of bad luck. He cut weight twice going into the Gaethje fight. And that clearly hurt his cardio. He wasn’t super human in the 2nd half of the fight like he normally is. His right eye also swelled up so bad he could barely see out of it. Plus Gaethje has legit 75 striking, that had something to do with it too. But Ferguson has a such a track record and body of work that it makes me think what happened to him with Gaethje was an aberration. Regardless, Ferguson is virtually a lock to win this fight. Oliveira is very good, but usually loses when he faces the very best in the division. With the exception of catching Lee in a guillotine choke when Lee, once again, gassed out in a fight. I don’t think Oliveira has had some evolution in his tools. He’s had 25 career UFC fights. I think he is who he is. There’s so much margin on the Ferguson side that even if I’m wrong and he’s regressing a little bit, there’s no way Oliveira will be that much better in the grappling to take Tony down and control him. Most likely, this is a stand up fight. And there’s no way Oliveira is better there, outside of maybe catching Ferguson with a lucky knockout punch.

Chris’ Pick: Ferguson by 3rd round knockout.

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Mackenzie Dern vs Virna Jandiroba

• MacKenzie Dern
• Age: 27
• UFC Record: 4-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Randa Markos and Hannah Cifers. Split decision over Ashley Yoder.
• Tools: Dern has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has plus grappling (70).

• Virna Jandiroba
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 16-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted Felice Herrig, a 6-2 wrestler, a well rounded 8-2 fighter and a 10-2 striker. Split decision wins over Mizuki Inoue and a 7-2 grappler.
• Tools: Jandiroba has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has plus grappling (70).

Both of these fighters, long term, will be in the top 5 of the division for a long time. It’s rare for fighters so early in their UFC careers to already have true 70 tools. And that wasn’t always the case for Dern. She struggled to beat Ashley Yoder. She lost to Amanda Ribas. She’s struggled with her weight cut. But since then, going in to her fights with Cifers and Markos, her weight cuts have gone much better. And her grappling has taken the leap to a 70 grade. In both fights, all it took for Dern was grappling a hold of her opponent once and the fight was soon over after that. And most importantly for this fight, Dern showed improved striking in the Cifers fight. Enough for a 55 grade. And that’ll be the difference against Jandiroba as I expect this fight to play out on the feet.

Chris’ Pick: Dern by decision.

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Jacare Souza vs Kevin Holland

• Jacare Souza
• Age: 40
• UFC Record: 9-4 UFC record at 185 lbs.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Jan Blachowicz at 205 lbs. Split decision losses to Kelvin Gastelum and Yoel Romero.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Derek Brunson and Chris Weidman.
• Tools: Jacare has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).

• Kevin Holland
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 8-1 at 185 lbs.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquin Buckley and Anthony Hernandez. Beat Alessio Di Chirico. Split decisions over Gerald Meerschaert and Darren Stewart.
• Tools: Holland has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus grappling (65).

So many questions with Jacare. He’s 40 years old now. So he’s old. And in his last fight, a year ago in November, he moved up in weight to 205 lbs to fight Blachowicz. He lost a split decision. At the time, the fight looked like garbage, but Blachowicz is the champ now. Sooooo, is Jacare almost as good as the light heavyweight champion? Is he better at 205 lbs? In his previous fight before Blachowicz, Jacare was really out classed in cardio and striking with Jack Hermansson. But now Jacare is cutting back down to 185 lbs. At 40 years old. I’m not 100% confident on where I’m grading his tools, but I think 65 striking and 70 grappling is the best I can do. As for Holland, I don’t think the moment will be too big for him. He’s a guy who fought Thiago Santos at 205 lbs in his official UFC debut. And Holland survived. Wasn’t finished. Holland is 8-1 at 185 lbs. Only loss was to Brendan Allen who has 70 wrestling and took Holland down. Holland has continued to improve. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jacare wins here, but Holland has less questions.

Chris’ Pick: Holland by decision.

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Junior dos Santos vs Ciryl Gane

• Junior dos Santos
• Age: 36
• UFC Record: 15-7
• Key Wins: Knocked out Derrick Lewis, Cain Velasquez, and Mark Hunt. Beat Stipe Miocic and Shane Carwin. 
• Tools: Dos Santos has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).

• Ciryl Gane
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 6-0
• UFC Record: 3-0
• Key Wins: Submitted Don’tale Mayes. Beat Tanner Boser.
• Tools: Gane has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

This is a closer fight than the experts think. Dos Santos’ striking technique hasn’t necessarily regressed to a 65, but I downgraded the tool because his chin seems to be going out. He’s been knocked out in all 3 of his last 3 fights. But Gane still doesn’t have a UFC knockout. Matter of fact, he only has 2 career knockouts in 6 pro fights. Yeah, crazy how Gane has come this far in 6 pro fights. I’m not saying dos Santos will win here, but I’m saying the odds of him being knocked out are lower. But I do think Gane will show better striking for all 3 rounds to cement himself as an exciting title contender.

Chris’ Pick: Gane by decision.

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Cub Swanson vs Daniel Pineda

• Cub Swanson
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 11-7
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Shane Burgos.
• Key Wins: Beat Doo Ho Choi and Kron Gracie.
• Tools: Swanson has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).

• Daniel Pineda
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 4-4
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Antonio Carvalho and a well rounded 26-7-1 fighter. Lost to Robert Whiteford.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Herbert Burns. Submitted Justin Lawrence, a 8-2 wrestler, an 11-2 striker, and a 5-0 grappler.
• Tools: Pineda has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).

Swanson priced at anywhere above +125 is probably my favorite pick on the card. Most of the time these lines are influenced by what have you done for me lately. Swanson is coming off a close win over Gracie, but a lot of people remember he lost 4 in a row prior to that. He is 37 years old too. But. Pineda is 35 years old. Pineda looked like a world beater upsetting Burns. And here is why the pick has value. Burns was 3 lbs over weight. He had a brutal weight cut. He didn’t look anything like the fighter we’ve seen in the UFC. So I give Pineda credit for the win, but for now, I can’t grade his striking higher than a 55 and his wrestling/grappling higher than a 60. I have to look at Pineda’s overall track record vs just the Burns fight. And if you haven’t been paying attention, Swanson has some very, very under rated wrestling. He kept most of the Gracie fight on the feet. Ditto vs Frankie Edgar, Renato Moicano, Brian Ortega, the list goes on. He lost those fights on the feet. And on the feet, I feel very comfortable giving Swanson a 60 grade. No way it’s less than that. And that should be enough to get the job done vs Pineda.

Chris’ Pick: Swanson by decision.

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Renato Moicano vs Rafael Fiziev

• Renato Moicano
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 6-3
• Key Wins: Knocked down and submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Calvin Kattar.
• Tools: Moicano has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus grappling (65).

• Rafael Fiziev
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 8-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Beat Marc Diakiese.
• Tools: Fiziev has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

I love this Moicano pick at +125 almost as much as I like the Swanson pick. Fiziev is favored because he’s younger and looked spectacular in piecing up Diakiese. However, Fiziev’s wrestling is only a 55. He took Diakiese down a couple times. Diakiese got back up. Then as Fiziev got tired in the 3rd and tried to take Diakiese down, he wasn’t able to. So with Diakiese’s wrestling a 50, I can’t grade Fiziev’s any higher than a 55. And that will be a problem with Moicano. Yes, if it’s on the feet, the fight is a coin flip. But Moicano has real 65 grappling. Brian Ortega couldn’t take him down. Kattar didn’t even bother trying. And he submitted Swanson who has strong 65 wrestling. I see Moicano being able to take Fiziev down and show that Fiziev needs to round out his game a bit.

Chris’ Pick: Moicano by 2nd round submission.

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Billy Quarantillo vs Gavin Tucker

• Billy Quarantillo
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 15-2
• UFC Record: 4-0
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Michel Quinones.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Kyle Nelson, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 5-1 wrestler, and a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Spike Carlyle.
• Tools: Quarantillo has above average striking (60) and above average grappling (60).

• Gavin Tucker
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 11-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Sam Sicillia.
• Tools: Tucker has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average grappling (50).

Quarantillo is one of these fighters that uses his cardio as a weapon. His last fight with Nelson was close in the 1st round. But by mid way in the fight, Nelson couldn’t keep up with Quarantillo’s pace. Tucker is also well rounded with solid cardio. But Quarantillo grappling is on another tier and I expect that to be the difference.

Chris’ Pick: Quarantillo by decision.

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Tecia Torres vs Sam Hughes

• Tecia Torres
• Age: 31
• UFC Record: 8-7
• Key Wins: Beat Michelle Waterson and Brianna van Buren.
• Tools: Torres has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

• Sam Hughes
• Age: 28
• Pro Record: 5-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 4-1 grappler. Beat a well rounded 3-1 fighter.
• Tools: Hughes has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

Torres’ striking is tough for me to grade. She showed 60 striking in her last 4 fights going into the van Buren fight. But was more aggressive towards the second half of the fight. Looked good. I thought van Buren had 55 striking, but after rewatching the fight, I think it’s more likely van Buren’s striking is a 50 vs Torres striking is a 65. In either case, I like Hughes as a prospect, but I just don’t see how she wins this fight. Hughes doesn’t have the wrestling van Buren has. Hughes’ is more like a 55. And on the feet, Torres is just so much more experienced. So much faster. And Hughes only has 6 pro fights. But I’d say this isn’t the blow out some might think. Striking could be close.

Chris’ Pick: Torres by decision.

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Chase Hooper vs Peter Barrett

• Chase Hooper
• Age: 21
• Pro Record: 9-1-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Draws: Fought a 7-8 striker to a draw.
• Key Losses: Lost to Alex Caceres.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Teymur. Beat a 4-0 grappler.
• Tools: Hooper has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has near plus grappling (65).

• Peter Barrett
• Age: 34
• Pro Record: 11-4
• UFC Record: 1-1
• Key Losses: Submitted by TJ Brown, who had a 7-5 record at the time. Knocked out by a well rounded 6-3 fighter. 
• Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 striker.
• Tools: Barrett has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).

Hooper’s striking did not look pretty in his UFC debut against Daniel Teymur and the 1st round of his fight with Caceres. Probably one of the lowest striking tools in the UFC. But in rounds 2 and 3 against Caceres, he started landing more. He still got out classed on the feet, don’t misunderstand. He lost the striking exchanges. But he did land some shots. Enough for me to give him a 45 grade. But Hooper’s striking really shouldn’t come in to play in this fight with Barrett. Hooper has a monster grappling advantage.

Chris’ Pick: Hooper by 1st round submission.