Thompson vs Neal, Aldo vs Vera, Pereira vs Williams Fight Picks

Stephen Thompson vs Geoff Neal

• Stephen Thompson
• Age: 37
• UFC Record: 10-4-1
• Key Losses: Knocked out by Anthony Pettis. Majority decision loss to Tyron Woodley.
• Key Draws: Fought Tyron Woodley to a majority draw.
• Key Wins: Beat Jorge Masvidal and Vicente Luque.
• Tools: Thompson has near plus plus striking paired with near plus power (75-65). He also has above average wrestling (60).

• Geoff Neal
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 6-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Mike Perry and Niko Price. Beat Belal Muhammaed.
• Tools: Neal has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

Thompson has had one of the more interesting UFC careers. He fought for the title twice against Woodley. I thought he barely won both fights. That he had 75 striking to Woodley’s 70 striking. Then Thompson edged out an improving Jorge Masvidal, who was just starting to come into his own at 170 lbs. He then fought Darren Till. I thought Thompson won but the judges scored it for Till. Thompson then fought Pettis. Was out classing Pettis on the feet until Pettis caught him with a superman punch. Thompson got caught. It happens. At that point, some, including myself thought that Thompson was on the decline due to his chin not being able to hold up anymore. But then he fought Luque, who blitzed and used most of his gas tank in the 1st round. And Thompson’s chin held up. Thompson then proceeded to dominate Luque, who has 70 striking. So usually, most fighters with 75 to 80 grade tools are champions or former champions. Thompson would be an exception with 75 striking paired with 65 power. I believe in the tool being that elite despite Thompson being 37 years old. He could regress at any point, but for now that’s where the tool is. Neal is interesting too. Some might think his striking is 70, but I’m not sold on that yet. I have him at a 65 due to what I saw in his fight with Price. Price knocked Neal down. Almost finished him. Price also has 65 striking and the stand up was close to equal before Neal ultimately knocked Price out. I don’t think the ground game factors in at all. This fight will play out on the feet and I’m confident in saying that Thompson, due to his defensive game and awkward style, will get the better of the striking.

Chris’ Pick: Thompson by decision.

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Jose Aldo vs Marlon Vera

• Jose Aldo
• Age: 34
• UFC/WEC Record: 0-2 at 135 lbs. 18-6 overall.
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Marlon Moraes.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, the Korean Zombie, Jeremy Stephens, and Renato Moicano. Beat Urijah Faber and Frankie Edgar.
• Tools: Aldo has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).

• Marlon Vera
• Age: 28
• UFC Record: 10-5
• Key Losses: Lost to Douglas Silva de Andrade. Lost a controversial decision to Yadong Song.
• Key Wins: Submitted Brian Kelleher. Knocked out Sean O’Malley, Frankie Saenz and Andre Ewell. 
• Tools: Vera has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).

I’m making this pick based on cardio. I think both fighters have 70 striking. Aldo always looks great in the first 7 minutes or so of the fight. He’ll probably win the 1st round. But I see Vera’s path to victory as putting a really fast pace on Aldo. To slow him down about mid way through the fight and I see Vera pouring it on. I really don’t like to pick fights based on projection, but I’d be lying if I didn’t disclose this pick has some projection baked in. Aldo took a real beating against Petr Yan last time out. Between the WEC and UFC, he’s had 24 career fights. And cutting to 135 lbs has to be grueling on his body. I even remember the days when he was champion and saying that 145 lbs is such a hard cut, he’d eventually have to move up to 155 lbs. So it’s crazy to see him at 135 lbs. And I also think me picking Vera has something to do with watching Tony Ferguson last week. I think same thing happens here with Aldo.

Chris’ Pick: Vera by decision.

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Michel Pereira vs Khaos Williams

• Michel Pereira
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 24-11
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Losses: DQ loss to Diego Sanchez. Lost to Tristan Connelly.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Danny Roberts. Submitted an 8-2 striker.
• Tools: Pereira has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).

• Khaos Williams
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 11-1
• UFC Record: 2-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out Abdul Razak Alhassan and Alex Morono. Beat a well rounded 9-3 fighter.
• Tools: Williams has striking that’s a little above average (55) and average wrestling (50).

It’s very possilbe Pereira’s striking is a 65. He took on Zelim Imadaev in his last fight and I had Imadaev graded as a 55 striker. And Pereira just dominated. Blew him out of the water. Not just offensively, but defensively as well. Pereira rarely got hit. It was a more disciplined version of Pereira that didn’t gas out halfway through the fight. And I’m sorry, but I’m not buying Williams as this new phenom. Not yet at least. I’ve seen these quick knockouts before and they don’t mean a ton. Any fighter can blitz their opponent in the beginning of the fight and go all in on finishing early. But it’s very risky because if you don’t get the finish, you gas out and the odds of winning become pretty low. Look at Mariya Agapova from early this year. It’s a very risky thing to do. But Williams is 26 years old, maybe he’s developing, so we’ll see. But my grades have to go off a longer track record that two 30 second fights. I think the best his fight with Jeremie Holloway that happened a year ago is the closest demonstration of where his tools are and in that fight, he showed 55 striking. And this might surprise people, but I think if Pereira gets in to trouble, he can take Williams down if he needs to. Pereira has 60 wrestling. But either way, I think there’s a lot of value in Pereira at any where close to -125.

Chris’ Pick: Pereira by 2nd round knockout.

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Marlon Moraes vs Rob Font

• Marlon Moraes
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 5-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Raphael Assuncao.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Aljamain Sterling and Jimmie Rivera. Submitted Assuncao in a rematch.
• Tools: Moraes has plus striking (70). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).

• Rob Font
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Wins: Submitted Douglas Silva de Andrade. Knocked out Thomas Almeida. Beat Ricky Simon and Sergio Pettis.
• Tools: Font has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).

It’s going to be interesting to see how Moraes rebounds here. He got so close to beating Henry Cejudo and becoming champion. Since then, he technically beat Jose Aldo, although a lot of people, including myself, though Aldo won. Then he gets knocked out by Corey Sandhagen. I don’t have any reason to downgrade his tools. He’s only 32 years old. Not a ton of UFC fights. I still see him as a top 5 fighter in the division. And in Font, this is really a make or break fight for him. He’s 7-3 in the UFC. Beat everybody he’s supposed to beat. But every time he gets a step up in competition he comes up short. Lost to John Lineker, Pedro Munhoz, and Rafael Assuncao. He’s 33 years old. Calvin Kattar is his main training partner. We’ve seen Kattar trend up. I can see an argument for someone picking Font on projection. But that’s dangerous, because the vast majority of time, fighters come in with tools pretty similar to what we see in their last fight. Based on that, Moraes should be slightly better everywhere. And I think Moraes gets back to what catapulted him to a title run which is blitzing his opponent in the 1st round.

Chris’ Pick: Moraes by 1st round knockout.

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Greg Hardy vs Marcin Tybura

• Greg Hardy
• Age: 32
• UFC Record: 6-2
• Key Losses: DQ loss to Allen Crowder.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Maurice Greene and Juan Adams. Beat Yorgan de Castro.
• Tools: Hardy has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).

• Marcin Tybura
• Age: 34
• UFC Record: 6-5
• Key Wins: Beat Andrei Arlovski and Sergei Spivac.
• Tools: Tybura has striking that’s a little above average (55) and above average wrestling (60).

This is going to be a pretty stern test for Hardy. Namely to see where his wrestling and cardio are at. Tybura is coming off a win over Ben Rothwell. And Tybura let Rothwell punch himself out in the 1st round. Started gassing out mid way through the fight and Tybura took over. There’s a risk the same happens to Hardy here. I’m not concerned about Hardy being taken down and controlled. Hardy was able to clinch Alexander Volkov against the fence in their fight, before Hardy broke his hand. And Hardy bull rushed Greene to the ground and controlled him pretty easy, with Greene’s grappling posing no threat. Tybura doesn’t have the best chin. I think this ends quick.

Chris’ Pick: Hardy by 1st round knockout.

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Anthony Pettis vs Alex Morono

• Anthony Pettis
• Age: 33
• UFC Record: 2-1 at 170 lbs. 10-9 overall.
• Key Wins: Submitted Charles Oliveira and Michael Chiesa. Knocked out Stephen Thompson. Beat Donald Cerrone.
• Tools: Pettis has near plus striking (65) and above average grappling (60). 

• Alex Morono
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 7-3
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Keita Nakamura.
• Key Wins: Knocked out Zak Ottow. Beat Kenan Song and Max Griffin.
• Tools: Morono has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average grappling (60).

If Pettis fully commits to 170 lbs, it’s going to be interesting to see what he can do. He was getting out classed by Thompson before catching him with a superman punch to knock him out. And he looked good on the feet with Nate Diaz but then got taken down repeatedly and lost. Morono, to me, might be one of these guys that hits his ceiling and can’t go any farther. Pettis is going to be a great test for him. But I think Pettis will have a big power advantage and that’s going to be a problem for Morono. I also didn’t like hearing him say in an interview that he doesn’t care about the title and just wants fun fights. Not exactly the most confident thing to say before the biggest fight of your career.

Chris’ Pick: Pettis by 2nd round knockout.

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Pannie Kianzad vs Sijara Eubanks

• Pannie Kianzad
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 13-5
• UFC Record: 2-2
• Key Losses: Submitted by a 5-5 striker.
• Key Wins: Beat Bethe Correia, Jessica-Rose Clark, a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 7-2 striker.
• Tools: Kianzad has above average striking paired with below average power (60-40). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

• Sijara Eubanks
• Age: 35
• UFC Record: 2-2 at 135 lbs. 7-2 overall.
• Key Losses: Lost to Bethe Correia.
• Key Wins: Beat Julia Avila and Lauren Murphy. Beat Roxanne Modafferi twice.
• Tools: Eubanks has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has near plus wrestling (65).

Eubanks was a +240 underdog going into her fight with Julia Avila. And rightly so. She fought Correia. Failed to take her down. Eubanks wrestling was a 60. Not good enough to take Avila down and keep her there. But at 35 years of age, she improved. Her wrestling got better. She was able to take Avila down. Kept her there most of the fight. Her wrestling is now a 65. And that will be a problem for Kianzad. Kianzad also fought Correia. And I think Correia could’ve won that fight had she been more focused on using her wrestling. Kianzad slipped in the 2nd round. And Correia kept her there the rest of the fight. Towards the end of the 3rd round, Correia took Kianzad down. But it was too little, too late as most of the fight was on the feet with Kianzad edging her out. Eubanks has better wrestling and I see her using it to win the fight.

Chris’ Pick: Eubanks by decision.

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Deron Winn vs Antonio Arroyo

• Deron Winn
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 6-2
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Darren Stewart.
• Beat Wins: Beat a well rounded 12-4 fighter.
• Tools: Winn has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average wrestling (60).

• Antonio Arroyo
• Age: 31
• Pro Record: 9-3
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Wins: Submitted a 9-3 striker. Knocked out a 11-2 striker.
• Tools: Arroyo has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).

For Winn to be successful at 185 lbs, his wrestling has to carry him. His last fight against Gerald Meerschaert, his 5’7 frame hurt him as Meerschaert had a big reach advantage. He rocked WInn and submitted him with a choke. And Arroyo is somewhat similar to Meerschaert. Except Meerschaert’s grappling is around 60-65, but Arroyo’s is a 55. And I’m confident in Winn being able to get the take downs as Andre Muniz, who has 60 grappling, took Arroyo down multiple times.

Chris’ Pick: Winn by decision.

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Gillian Robertson vs Talia Santos

• Gillian Robertson
• Age: 25
• UFC Record: 6-3
• Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
• Key Wins: Submitted Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
• Tools: Robertson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has plus grappling (70).

• Talia Santos
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 16-1
• UFC Record: 2-1
• Key Losses: Split decision loss to Mara Borella Romero.
• Key Wins: Beat Molly McCann and a 7-1 striker.
• Tools: Santos has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

This line is bonkers to me. How can this be a pick em fight?? Yes, Santos looked great against McCann in her last fight. But McCann is a striker. Santos has 55 wrestling. I know that because I watched her get beat by wrestler Mara Romero Borella last year. Santos barely lost by split decision, but she can be taken down by not the elitest of wrestlers. Robertson has true 70 grappling. She proved it by taking Casey down, someone with 60 wrestling, all 3 rounds. Controlling her the whole fight before submitting her. Then did the same thing in her last fight to Botelho who also has 60 wrestling. Let’s say Santos improves her wrestling. Maybe it becomes a 60. It still won’t be enough to stuff Robertson’s grappling. Could Santos’ wrestling jump from a 55 to a 65? It’s not impossible, but very, very rare that fighters make that big a jump in a year. This is vintage Robertson all day.

Chris’ Pick: Robertson by 2nd round submission.

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Tafon Nchukwi vs Jamie Pickett

• Tafon Nchukwi
• Age: 26
• Pro Record: 4-0
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Wins: Knocked out William Knight and an 8-2 striker.
• Tools: Nchukwi has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

• Jamie Pickett
• Age: 32
• Pro Record: 11-4
• UFC Record: 1-2
• Key Losses: Submitted by Charles Byrd.
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-3 striker.
• Tools: Pickett has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).

I was really close to grading Nchukwi’s wrestling a 60. He fought William Knight, a light heavyweight, and out wrestled him. Really impressive. He has scary power. Decorated kickboxing champion. Elite prospect. Pickett also passed the eye test, finally breaking through on The Contender in his last fight, knocking out Jhonoven Pati, a 6-3 striker. But the reality is that the Pati win is the biggest in Pickett’s career. Any time he’s gotten a step up in competition, he’s lost. Including being submitted by Byrd. And his win over Pati wasn’t dominant. The 1st round was close, striking was almost equal. Then Pickett exploded for the spectacular knockout. Pickett’s chances of out striking Nchukwi is pretty slim.

Chris’ Pick: Nchukwi by 2nd round knockout.

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Jimmy Flick vs Cody Durden

• Jimmy Flick
• Age: 30
• Pro Record: 15-5
• UFC Record: 1-0
• Key Losses: Knocked out by a well rounded 4-2 fighter and a 12-5 grappler. Lost to a 4-3 wrestler.
• Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 grappler, a 10-1 grappler and a 5-2 grappler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
• Tools: Flick has fringe average striking paired with below average power (45-35). He also has above average grappling (60).

• Cody Durden
• Age: 29
• Pro Record: 11-2-1
• UFC Record: 0-0-1
• Key Draws: Fought Chris Guttierez to a draw.
• Key Wins: Knocked out a 6-2 grappler. Submitted a 10-3 wrestler. 
• Tools: Durden has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).

There’s a lot of value in Durden at anything above +150. Flick looked great on the Contender, but he has a 15-5 pro record for a reason. He struggles when he can’t take his opponent down. We’ve already seen in Durden’s UFC debut that he has 55 wrestling. He fought Chris Guttierez, a guy that I know has 50 wrestling. And Durden took Guttierez down a couple times. Didn’t keep him down for too long, but showed that his wrestling was a little better. I’m convinced Durden keeps it on the feet and stays out of trouble on the ground.

Chris’ Pick: Durden by 2nd round knockout.

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Christos Giagos vs Carlton Minus

• Christos Giagos
• Age: 30
• UFC Record: 3-4
• Key Losses: Lost to Chris Wade.
• Key Wins: Beat Damir Hadzovic.
• Tools: Giagos has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).

• Carlton Minus
• Age: 27
• Pro Record: 10-2
• UFC Record: 0-1
• Key Wins: Beat a 14-4 grappler and a well rounded 11-3 fighter.
• Tools: Minus has fringe average striking (45) and average wrestling (50).

If Giagos had a full training camp, I’d be pretty confident in him winning here. But instead, Giagos takes this fight on less than a week’s notice. Which makes things more interesting. Minus looked pretty average in his UFC debut against Matt Semelsberger. He has 50 wrestling, but got out classed on the feet. I think the wrestling cancels itself out here and it comes down to striking.

Chris’ Pick: Giagos by decision.