Conor McGregor vs Dustin Poirier 2
- Conor McGregor
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo, Eddie Alvarez, and Donald Cerrone. Majority decision over Nate Diaz.
- Tools: McGregor has near plus plus striking (75) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Dustin Poirier
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 18-5
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Michael Johnson.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Justin Gaethje and Eddie Alvarez. Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Max Holloway and Dan Hooker.
- Tools: Poirier has plus striking (70) and plus grappling (70).
It’s tempting to say that Poirier is going to win this fight and pull the upset. McGregor has only fought once in the past 2 years. More specifically, McGregor has only fought for 40 seconds in the last 2 years. He’s very rich. Is it really possible that he’s maintained his 75 striking? Is his wrestling still a 65? But the thing I’ve learned picking fights all these years is picking by projection is dangerous. You pick based off what you know and where the fighter has been the last couple fights. Based on that, McGregor’s striking has been a slight notch above where Poirier’s striking has been. And the other x factor that cements my McGregor pick is that this is a rematch where McGregor starched Poirier in less than 2 minutes the first time they fought. That matters. Fighters who win the first fight almost always win the rematch. My only concern with picking McGregor is that Poirier will have a big cardio advantage. McGregor would be vulnerable towards the end of the fight. But I think McGregor ends it early again.
Chris’ Pick: McGregor by 1st round knockout.
Dan Hooker vs Michael Chandler
- Dan Hooker
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 7-2 at 155 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out James Vick. Beat Al Iaquinta. Split decision win over Paul Felder.
- Tools: Hooker has plus striking (70). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
- Michael Chandler
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 21-5
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Eddie Alvarez. Knock out loss and split decision loss to Will Brooks.
- Key Wins: Submitted Eddie Alvarez and a 14-1 wrestler. Knocked out a well rounded 14-1 fighter and a 14-3 grappler.
- Tools: Chandler has near plus striking (65) and near plus wrestling (65).
There were times in the Hooker vs Poirier fight where it seemed like Hooker had the better skills. He started really fast in that first round. But he started to slow down mid way through the way. And it’s not just that Poirier had the better cardio. I thought Poirier was also more efficient in how he used his energy. Hooker really went for the finish early in the fight. That said, I don’t see anyway Chandler wins this fight. Historically, a lot of the high profile fighters from Bellator have lost their UFC debut. Poirier is right up there with the very best in the world and Hooker was inches from beating him. I don’t see how it’s possible Chandler’s striking or wrestling will be on that level when he’s fought lesser competition his whole career.
Chris’ Pick: Hooker by 2nd round knockout.
Jessica Eye vs Joanne Calderwood
- Jessica Eye
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 4-2 in the UFC at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Viviane Araujo and Jessica-Rose Clark. Split decision win over Katlyn Chookagian.
- Tools: Eye has near plus striking paired and fringe average power (65-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Joanne Calderwood
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 3-2 at 125 lbs.
- Key Wins: Beat Ariane Lipski. Split decision over Andrea Lee.
- Tools: Calderwood has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
Coin flip fight that could go either way. And Calderwood’s loss to Jennifer Maia doesn’t look as bad after Maia gave champ Valentina Shevchenko a run for her money. Calderwood was looking good in the Maia fight until she made a tactical mistake by trying to grapple Maia from the top when she didn’t have to. Both Eye and Calderwood are super similar. The one area where I’d give Calderwood an advantage is that she has more power.
Chris’ Pick: Calderwood by split decision.
Makhmud Muradov vs Andrew Sanchez
- Makhmud Muradov
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 24-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out Trevor Smith, a well rounded 9-2 fighter and a well rounded 13-3 fighter. Beat Alessio Di Chirico.
- Tools: Muradov has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Andrew Sanchez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Beat Khalil Rountree and Markus Perez.
- Tools: Sanchez has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Has Sanchez found a way to unlock his power? I think that’s what the fight comes down to. Sanchez is coming off a big knockout over Turman. Wrestling should cancel out. I give a slight edge to Muradov in being faster and having a big power advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Muradov by 2nd round knockout.
Amanda Ribas vs Marina Rodriguez
- Amanda Ribas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 4-0
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Polyana Viana.
- Key Wins: Submitted Paige VanZant and Emily Whitmire. Beat Randa Markos and MacKenzie Dern.
- Tools: Ribas has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Marina Rodriguez
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-1-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Carla Esparza
- Key Draws: Fought Randa Markos and Cynthia Calvillo to draws.
- Key Wins: Beat Tecia Torres.
- Tools: Rodriguez has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). She also has near plus wrestling (65).
I love this fight. And I feel like this is a trilogy of sorts with Marina Rodriguez. She fought Cynthia Calvillo, who has 70 grappling. Calvillo got some take downs. Rodriguez dominated on the feet. Judges ruled it a draw. Then she fought Esparza, who has 70 wrestling. Same thing happened. Esparza got some take downs. Rodriguez would get up. Dominate on the feet. Esparza won a split decision. This fight with Ribas could be very similar. We know Ribas has 70 grappling from the way she stuff Mackenzie Dern’s take downs. But I just don’t see Ribas trying to grapple the whole fight. Chasing the take downs the whole fight the way Calvillo and Esparza did. Ribas also has better striking than those two. I think she’s going to try and beat Rodriguez in the stand up. But I think that’s where Ribas loses. Add in the fact that Rodriguez is at +250 in some books? I’m sold.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by split decision.
Arman Tsarukyan vs Matt Frevola
- Arman Tsarukyan
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 2-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 wrestler and a 17-4 striker. Knocked out a 15-5 striker. Beat Davi Ramos and a 5-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Tsarukyan has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and near plus grappling (65).
- Matt Frevola
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 3-1-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes.
- Key Draws: Fought Lando Vannata to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Jalin Turner. Split decision win over Luis Pena.
- Tools: Frevola has striking that’s a little above average that’s paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
Both Ottman Azaitar and Nasrat Haqparast get scratched from their fights, leaving Tsarukyan and Frevola to take on each other on 24 hours notice. Completely different style matchups for both. I’ve seen Tsarukyan as an elite prospect ever since he made his UFC debut on short notice against Islam Makhachev and lost a close decision. Stand up fight. I like Tsarukyan’s striking better. He’ll have a big speed advantage.
Chris’ Pick: Tsarukyan by decision.
Brad Tavares vs Antonio Carlos Jr
- Brad Tavares
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 12-6
- Key Wins: Knocked out Krzysztof Jotko. Beat Elias Theodorou.
- Tools: Tavares has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
- Antonio Carlos Jr.
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-3 at 185 lbs.
- Key Wins: Submitted Tim Boetsch. Beat Marvin Vettori in 2016.
- Tools: Carlos Jr has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has near plus grappling (65).
Really close fight. You could say that Tavares take down defense will be good enough to keep the fight on the feet. And he’d out strike Carlos Jr to win. But as shown in Carlos Jr’s last fight, he doesn’t care if the fight is boring and will grapple all fight to try and win. Carlos Jr could definitely win that way too. So projection is the main reason I’m picking Carlos Jr. Tavares is coming off 2 lopsided losses in a row. He hasn’t been very active. He’s only fought once in the last year and a half. The last time he fought 3 times in a year was 2014. He’s got 18 career UFC fights. I see him trending downward. Whereas with Carlos Jr, he’s heading into his prime.
Chris’ Pick: Carlos Jr by split decision.
Julianna Pena vs Sara McMann
- Julianna Pena
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Sarah Moras. Beat Cat Zingano and Nicco Montano.
- Tools: Pena has above average striking (60). She also has near plus wrestling (65) and above average grappling (60).
- Sara McMann
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 6-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Marion Reneau.
- Key Wins: Beat Lina Lansberg.
- Tools: McMann has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). She also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
At 40 years of age and losing 2 fights in a row, I thought the time had come for McMann’s tools to regress. But she bounced back big time against Lina Lansberg, showing off her trademark 70 wrestling. However, she does remain one dimensional and that will be a problem against Pena, who’s pretty likely to get back up if taken down.
Chris’ Pick: Pena by decision.
Khalil Rountree vs Marcin Prachnio
- Khalil Rountree
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 5-5
- Key Losses: Submitted by Tyson Pedro.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig and Gokhan Saki. Beat Eryk Anders.
- Tools: Rountree has above average striking (60) and average wrestling (50).
- Martin Prachnio
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-5
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 16-4 striker, a well rounded 7-1 fighter, a 7-1 striker, and a 29-5 grappler. Beat a 14-2 grappler. Split decision over an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Prachnio has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
Pretty easy fight to pick. Prachnio came into the UFC with a lot of hype and success on the regional circuit but it hasn’t translated in the octagon. This fight is a lock to be on the feet.
Chris’ Pick: Rountree by 1st round knockout.
Movsar Evloev vs Nik Lentz
- Movsar Evloev
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-0
- UFC Record: 3-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter and a 15-5 wrestler. Submitted an 11-3 striker. Beat Mike Grundy, Enrique Barzola, a 7-1 striker, a well rounded 6-2 fighter, and a 14-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Evloev has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and average grappling (50).
- Nik Lentz
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 14-8
- Key Wins: Beat Scott Holtzman.
- Tools: Lentz has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also above average wrestling (60).
I feel bad for Lentz. He goes from a winnable fight against a guy like Mike Grundy, who’s one dimensional. Relies on his wrestling. To a much more rounded opponent in Evloev who’s got better striking and better cardio. This fight will really test how much Lentz’s striking has improved, but he’s 36 years old with 22 career UFC fights. I’m pretty comfortable in picking Evloev here to out strike Lentz.
Chris’ Pick: Evloev by decision.
Amir Albazi vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Amir Albazi
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Submitted Malcolm Gordon, a 6-2 wrestler, and a 6-2 striker. Beat a well rounded 6-1 fighter.
- Tools: Albazi has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
- Zhalgas Zhumagulov
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 12-5 fighter. Split decision losses to a well rounded 19-7 fighter and a 6-5 grappler.
- Key Wins: Beat Tyson Nam. Knocked out a 5-0-1 striker. Beat a 9-3 wrestler. Majority decision over a 7-0 grappler. Split decision win over a 19-6 wrestler.
- Tools: Zhumagulov has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Really good fight between 2 potential contenders at 125 lbs. Both are well rounded, pretty similar. But despite the unanimous decision loss, Zhumagulov came pretty close to beating Raulian Paiva. I like Zhumagulov’s striking better.
Chris’ Pick: Zhumagulov by decision.