Alistair Overeem vs Alexander Volkov
- Alistair Overeem
- Age: 40
- UFC Record: 12-7
- Key Wins: Knocked out Augusto Sakai, Walt Harris, Junior dos Santos, Mark Hunt, Sergei Pavlovich, and Alexei Oleinik. Majority decision win over Fabricio Werdum.
- Tools: Overeem has plus striking (70) and near plus wrestling (65).
- Alexander Volkov
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 6-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Fabricio Werdum and Walt Harris. Beat Greg Hardy.
- Tools: Volkov has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I was surprised and impressed at Volkov’s striking display against Walt Harris. So much so that I’m tempted to grade his striking a 75. But I don’t think it’s quite there yet. Before the Harris fight, he took on Curtis Blaydes. Lost because he got taken down again and again. And before that was the Greg Hardy fight. And Hardy, who has 65 striking was competitive in the 1st round until he broke his hand. Overeem is a known quantity. Very well rounded. It’s possible he could win this fight by taking Volkov down. Another way he could win is by knocking Volkov out as he has a power advantage. So to recap, two legit paths to win. Plus Overeem is a +150 underdog as of now. Sold.
Chris’ Pick: Overeem by 2nd round knockout.
Frankie Edgar vs Cory Sandhagen
- Frankie Edgar
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 1-0 at 135 lbs. 8-5 at 145 lbs.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Chad Mendes and Yair Rodriguez. Submitted Cub Swanson. Beat Pedro Munhoz, Charles Oliveira, Urijah Faber, and Jeremy Stephens.
- Tools: Edgar has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Corey Sandhagen
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 6-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Marlon Moraes, Iuri Alcantara. Submitted Mario Bautista. Beat Raphael Assuncao. Split decision win over John Lineker.
- Tools: Sandhagen has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has plus wrestling (70) and above average grappling (60).
Edgar’s skills translated a lot better at 135 lbs than a lot of people thought they would. Munhoz was a -270 favorite going into their fight. Fight was on the feet. It was close, but Edgar outlasted him in the striking. But he’s taking on a guy that a lot of smart people think is a future champion in Sandhagen. A guy that really has no weaknesses. Except for, of course, that weird loss to Aljamain Sterling. Where Sterling got Sandhagen’s back within a couple minutes of the fight and choked him out. Kind of reminded me of a quick knockout win. In any case, Sandhagen doesn’t have to worry about grappling here. Sandhagen is better everywhere and his reach and length make this an unfair fight. Most books have Sandhagen priced at about -400. I think there’s value in that. The price should be heavier. I like Edgar, but I don’t see him posing a threat anywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Sandhagen by 3rd round knockout.
Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida
- Michael Johnson
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 9-10 at 155 lbs.
- Key Losses: Majority decision loss to Stevie Ray.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Dustin Poirier. Beat Edson Barboza
- Tools: Johsnon has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Clay Guida
- Age: 39
- UFC Record: 15-14
- Key Losses: Submitted by Jim Miller. Lost to Bobby Green.
- Tools: Guida has average striking (50) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Johnson has had a run of bad luck. In hindsight, he should of stayed at 155 lbs. He returned. Lost a majority decision to Stevie Ray, a fight that I scored for Johnson. Then he fought Thiago Moises. Dominated the stand up in the 1st round. Then Moises bull rushed him. Clinched. Pulled guard. And got an Achilles lock submission. It was a fluke thing that doesn’t happen that often. But I think Johnson’s luck turns around here and this fight should be pretty similar to what we saw in Guida vs Green. Guida can’t get the take downs, and although he has great cardio, he has a big striking disadvantage.
Chris’ Pick: Johnson by decision.
Alexandre Pantoja vs Manel Kape
- Alexandre Pantoja
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Matt Schnell and Wilson Reis. Submitted Yuta Sasaki. Beat Brandon Moreno.
- Tools: Pantoja has near plus striking (65) and plus grappling (70).
- Manel Kape
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker.
- Tools: Kape has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Pantoja at anything near -125 has tremendous value. The reality is very few fighters walk into the UFC and beat a top 5 fighter in Pantoja. Pantoja’s tools are well established. His grappling was on display in his last fight with Askar Askarov. The fact that he was able to largely nullify Askarov’s wrestling was impressive. Yes, if you watch Kape’s last fight he looked very good. But Kape has only won 4 of his last 7 fights. And one of those losses was to UFC cast off Ulka Sasaki. Pantoja is better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Pantoja by 1st round submission.
Cody Stamann vs Askar Askar
- Cody Stamann
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 5-2-1
- Key Draws: Fought Yadong Song to a draw.
- Key Wins: Beat Alejandro Perez and Brian Kelleher. Split decision wins over Bryan Caraway and Tom Duquesnoy.
- Tools: Stamamn has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Askar Askar
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-1
- Key Wins: Beat a 5-0 grappler and an 8-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Askar has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Stamann’s last fight with Jimmie Rivera was a great litmus test for where his tools are. Rivera’s striking was a notch better, but the wrestling canceled itself out. Proving Stamann has a 65 grade there. Askar is a pretty good prospect but he’s going to be in over his head here. Askar is steady. Likes to mix the take downs with the striking. But the problem for him is Stamann is so much more experienced. I also think Stamann could take Askar down if he wanted to.
Chris’ Pick: Stamann by decision.
Diego Ferreira vs Beneil Dariush
- Diego Ferreira
- Age: 35
- UFC record: 8-2
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Pettis. Beat Oliver Aubin-Mercier, Rustam Khalibov, and Mairbek Taisumov.
- Tools: Ferreira has above average striking (60) and plus grappling (70).
- Beniel Dariush
- Age: 31
- UFC Record: 13-4-1
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Alexander Hernandez.
- Key Draws: Fought Evan Dunham to a draw.
- Key Wins: Submitted Anthony Rocco Martin and Drew Dober. Knocked out Scott Holtzman, Drakkar Klose, and James Vick. Beat Diego Ferreira, Jim Miller, and Michael Johnson by split decision.
- Tools: Dariush has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
Even though Dariush has had 18 career UFC fights, he’s surprisingly gotten better this past year. The biggest improvement is an increase in his knockout power. Knocking out two very durable opponents in Drakkar Klose and Scott Holtzman. Ferreira has been improving too, but his striking isn’t quite to Dariush’s level. Plus we can’t forget this is a rematch and Dariush won the first fight.
Chris’ Pick: Dariush by 2nd round knockout.
Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques
- Mike Rodriguez
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 3-3
- Key Wins: He knocked out a 7-4 striker and an 8-2 striker.
- Tools: Rodriguez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Danilo Marques
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to a well rounded 12-6 fighter.
- Tools: Marques has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Rodriguez really got robbed in his last fight. He hurt Ed Herman with a body shot, but instead the ref thought it was a low blow and gave Herman a chance to recover. Rodriguez’s big Achilles heel used to be his wrestling, but he’s improved a little bit on that. Marques had an easy time out in his last fight against Khadis Ibragimov. Just getting take down after take down, but that won’t be the case here.
Chris’ Pick: Rodriguez by 2nd round knockout.
Devonte Smith vs Justin Jaynes
- Devonte Smith
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 4-0 fighter. Knocked out Dong Hyun Ma, Julian Erosa, a 7-2 wrestler and an 8-0 striker.
- Tools: Smith has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Justin Jaynes
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 16-5
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Lost to a 4-1 grappler. Split decision loss to a 9-4 striker. Lost to a 4-2 fighter.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frank Camacho, a well rounded 5-1 fighter and a 5-1 wrestler. Beat a well rounded 5-0 fighter.
- Tools: Jaynes has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Well, that’s a big change in opponents. Smith goes from taking on a high level wrestler in Alex da Silva, to Jaynes who only has average tools. This is not the most competitive match up.
Chris’ Pick: Smith by 1st round knockout.
Joselyne Edwards vs Karol Rosa
- Joselyne Edwards
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Sarah Alpar.
- Key Wins: Submitted an 8-3 striker. Beat Yanan Wu.
- Tools: Edwards has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Karol Rosa
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out an 8-3 striker. Beat Vanessa Melo. Split decision win over a well rounded 6-0 fighter.
- Tools: Rosa has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Edwards really impressed in her UFC debut. Took the fight with Yanan on short notice. Really close fight but Edwards pulled away in the striking towards the end. But Rosa is going to be too steep a step up in competition. Rosa is a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Rosa by decision.
Molly McCann vs Lara Procopio
- Molly McCann
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 3-2
- Key Wins: Beat Ariane Lipski.
- Tools: McCann has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Lara Procopio
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 6-1
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Karol Rosa.
- Tools: Procopio has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has above average grappling (60).
Tough one to pick. On the one hand, all of Procopio’s wins are over cans. On the other hand, she made her UFC debut against Rosa and barely lost a split decision. But McCann’s wrestling has improved a little, despite what we saw in her last fight with Taila Santos. I think McCann keeps this on the feet long enough to get the better of the striking.
Chris’ Pick: McCann by decision.
Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalal
- Seung Woo Choi
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Beat an 8-1 grappler.
- Tools: Choi has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Youssef Zalal
- Age: 24
- Pro Record: 10-3
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Losses: Lost to a well rounded 8-3 fighter.
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 6-2 fighter. Beat Jordan Griffin and a 7-0 fighter.
- Tools: Zalal has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
Choi goes from a pretty winnable fight against Collin Anglin to a much, much more difficult opponent in Zalal. Zalal might have lost his last fight, but he’s still a rising possible contender. Zalal has some of the best footwork in the division. It’s very Dominick Cruz like. His striking will be better.
Chris’ Pick: Zalal by decision.
Martin Day vs Timur Valiev
- Martin Day
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 8-5
- UFC Record: 0-4
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Davey Grant. Split decision loss to Pingyuan Liu.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-0 fighter.
- Tools: Day has average striking (50) and average wrestling (50).
- Timur Valiev
- Age: 30
- Pro Record: 16-2
- Key Losses: Split decision loss to Chris Guttierez in 2016.
- Key Wins: Submitted a 25-5 striker. Knocked out a well rounded 4-0 fighter and a well rounded 19-2 fighter. Beat Chris Gutierrez, a well rounded 6-1 fighter, a well rounded 19-4 fighter, a 19-2 wrestler, and a 15-5 wrestler.
- Tools: Valiev has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Some might write Valiev as being over hyped losing to a journeyman like Trevin Jones (which later got ruled a no contest), but Valiev was dominating the whole fight, got close to knocking Jones out, and got knocked down and finished. It happens. Valiev will be better in his 2nd UFC fight, not having to deal with the jitters, and getting a much easier opponent as Julio Arce had to pull out and Day steps in on a week’s notice. I think the safest way to win is for Valiev to take Day down.
Chris’ Pick: Valiev by ground and pound TKO in the 2nd round.
Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera
- Ode Osbourne
- Age: 29
- Pro Record: 8-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a well rounded 5-1 fighter.
- Tools: Osbourne has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
- Jerome Rivera
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-4
- UFC Record: 1-2
- Key Wins: Beat a 6-2 grappler and a well rounded 11-1 fighter.
- Tools: Rivera has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Rivera is coming off a close loss to Francisco Figueiredo but I don’t think it hurts his stock too much. He’s well rounded and has 55 tools across the board, minus power. Osbourne can be flashy, but his grappling is average and although he has great offensive striking, he has flaws defensively and can be hit. I think Rivera is slightly better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Rivera by decision.