Leon Edwards vs Belal Muhammad
- Leon Edwards
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Beat Vicente Luque, Donald Cerrone, and Rafael dos Anjos. Split decision over Gunnar Nelson.
- Tools: Edwards has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus wrestling (65).
- Belal Muhammad
- Age: 32
- UFC Record: 9-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Alan Jouban.
- Key Wins: Beat Lyman Good, Chance Rencountre, and Randy Brown.
- Tools: Muhammad has near plus striking paired with power that’s a little above average (65-55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
Edwards is pretty tough to grade. He hasn’t fought in almost 2 years. His last fight was against 170 lb dos Anjos. Hard to grade him. Before that he fought Gunnar Nelson. And Nelson is also hard to grade as he hasn’t fought in over a year and lost his last fight to Gilbert Burns, which, there’s no shame in that. Before that, Edwards fought 170 lb Cerrone. And the welterweight version of Cerrone, I know he has 65 striking. Edwards out struck him, so giving him the plus 70 grade makes sense. But it’s not my most confident grade. Muhammad has been rapidly improving and what’s most surprising is that even though Muhammad came into the UFC as a wrestler, his striking tool has actually surpassed the wrestling. He’s also a cardio guy who pushes the pace, so he should look good in 5 rounds. Look, this isn’t an easy fight for Edwards despite the rankings. Edwards is coming off a long lay off. He might not be as good as I think he is. And we should see the best version of Muhammad in a 5 round fight. I’m tempted to pick Muhammad in an upset, but based on watching both fighters, I have Edwards as being just a little better everywhere.
Chris’ Pick: Edwards by decision.
Misha Cirkunov vs Ryan Spann
- Misha Cirkunov
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 6-3
- Key Wins: Submitted Jimmy Crute, Nikita Krylov, and Ion Cutelaba.
- Tools: Cirkunov has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has plus grappling (70).
- Ryan Spann
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Lil’ Nog. Submitted Devin Clark. Split decision over Sam Alvey.
- Tools: Spann has near plus striking (65) and near plus grappling (65).
I know Cirkunov picked up this huge win over Jimmy Crute. Got the 1st round submission win. But a big part of that was Crute making a tactical mistake in deciding to stay in Cirkunov’s guard, trying to land ground and pound from the top. Cirkunov sweeped him and soon got the sub. As long as Spann doesn’t make the same mistake and gets up when he can, he should be fine. Cirkunov doesn’t have a chin. Spann won’t have to land too many shots.
Chris’ Pick: Spann by 1st round knockout.
Dan Ige vs Gavin Tucker
- Dan Ige
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 7-2
- Key Wins: Knocked down Danny Henry and submitted him. Beat Kevin Aguilar. Split decision wins over Mirsad Bektic and Edson Barboza.
- Tools: Ige has plus striking paired with above average power (70-60). He also has near plus grappling (65).
- Gavin Tucker
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 12-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Submitted a 7-2 striker. Beat Billy Quarantillo.
- Tools: Tucker has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has above average wrestling (60).
I love the Ige side here and think there’s a ton of value with him at -130. Yes, Tucker has earned my respect. He’s improved since his UFC debut back in 2017 when he lost to Rick Glenn. But I don’t see his skills being on the same level as Ige. For Tucker, this is the biggest fight in his career. Toughest fight in his career. And for Ige, he’s going from fighting the likes of Barboza and Calvin Kattar, now to Tucker. It’s a step down. Ige is going to make a statement here.
Chris’ Pick: Ige by decision.
Jonathan Martinez vs Davey Grant
- Jonathan Martinez
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 13-3
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Controversial split decision loss to Andre Ewell. Lost to Andre Soukhamthath.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Frankie Saenz and Pingyuan Liu. Beat Thomas Almeida.
- Tools: Martinez has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Davey Grant
- Age: 35
- UFC Record: 5-3
- Key Losses: Submitted by Damian Stasiak and Manny Bermudez.
- Key Wins: Beat Marlon Vera in 2016.
- Tools: Grant has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Martinez should probably have a 5-1 UFC record. Seems a consensus of people think Martinez won his fight with Ewell. He showed in his last fight with Almeida that he’s got real 60 striking. Grant showed he’s not just a grappler in his last fight with Martin Day. He can strike. I say the tool is a 55. But that’s not going to be enough to out strike Martinez.
Chris’ Pick: Martinez by decision.
Manel Kape vs Matheus Nicolau
- Manel Kape
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 15-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 14-1 striker. Submitted a 14-5 striker.
- Tools: Kape has above average striking (60). He also has near plus wrestling (65) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- Matheus Nicolau
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 15-2
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 17-2 striker. Submitted a 4-0 grappler. Beat Louis Smolka and a 7-1 grappler. Split decision over John Moraga.
- Tools: Nicolau has near plus striking (65). He also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
This is one of the top 2 or 3 fights I’m looking forward to on the whole card. So many story lines. Kape’s wrestling blew me away in his UFC debut with Alexandre Pantoja. Kape lost, but his wrestling was way, way better than I thought it would be. From what I saw, his wrestling tool is actually better than his striking. And with Nicolau, he returns to the UFC after being cut with a 3-1 record. A victim of the UFC initially thinking they were going to shut the flyweight division down. A lot of people had him pegged early as a potential title contender. I think this fight comes down to Kape’s strategy. His wrestling is probably better than Nicolau’s, but won’t be able to hold him down all fight. So does he settle for that, just to get the win regardless of if it’s a boring fight. Or does he try and out strike Nicolau? I think he does the latter and it’s Kape’s undoing.
Chris’ Pick: Nicolau by decision.
Darren Stewart vs Eryk Anders
- Darren Stewart
- Age: 30
- UFC Record: 4-5 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Kevin Holland and Edmen Shahbazyan.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Charles Byrd. Beat Bevon Lewis. Split decision win over Deron Winn.
- Tools: Stewart has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Eryk Anders
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-4 at 185 lbs.
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Lyoto Machida and Elias Theodorou.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Rafael Natal. Beat Markus Perez. Split decision over Gerald Meerschaert.
- Tools: Anders has above average striking (60) and near plus wrestling (65).
Close fight but I think this plays out pretty similar to Anders last match up with Jotko. Anders tried to clinch, tried to wrestle. Didn’t have any luck. Jotko got the better of the striking. Except I think it’s possible Anders could have more wrestling success with Stewart. But I do think Stewart will be able to get up and will land enough shots to get the win.
Chris’ Pick: Stewart by decision.
Angela Hill vs Ashley Yoder
- Angela Hill
- Age: 36
- UFC Record: 6-7
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to Michelle Waterson and Claudia Gadelha.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Hannah Cifers. Beat Maryna Moroz. Split decision win over Livinha Souza.
- Tools: Hill has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60).
- Ashley Yoder
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 3-5
- Key Losses: Split decision losses to MacKenzie Dern and Randa Markos.
- Key Wins: Beat Miranda Granger.
- Tools: Yoder has striking that’s a little above average (55-45). She also has above average wrestling (60).
Hill has definitely improved the past couple years, despite her age. She’s lost two very close split decisions in a row to Waterson and Gadelha. I’m pretty close to upgrading her wrestling to a 65 with the way she stuffed so many of Waterson’s 65 grappling. But when Waterson did take her down in the 3rd, Hill was held down for a few minutes until the round was over. Still, 60 wrestling will be good enough to stuff Yoder’s take downs, forcing her to trade strikes. And although Yoder’s striking has improved to a 55, it’s not on Hill’s level.
Chris’ Pick: Hill by decision.
Charles Jourdain vs Marcelo Rojo
- Charles Jourdain
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 10-3-1
- UFC Record: 1-2-1
- Key Losses: Lost to Desmond Green.
- Key Draws: Split draw to an 8-1 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Doo Ho Choi. Submitted a 9-3 striker.
- Tools: Jourdain has near plus striking (65) and average grappling (50).
- Marcelo Rojo
- Age: 32
- Pro Record: 16-6
- Key Wins: Submitted a 6-0 striker. Knocked out an 8-1 striker and a well rounded 8-2 fighter.
- Tools: Rojo has average striking (50) and average grappling (50).
Rojo’s 2nd to last fight was against current UFC fighter John Casteneda, which is pretty helpful. Before watching that fight, it looked like Rojo had average tools across the board, but that fight confirmed it. Jourdain really put himself on the map by upsetting Doo Ho Choi, but since has faltered, although there isn’t much shame in split decision loss to Andre Fili. Even if I’m wrong about Jourdain having 65 striking, that I’m over rating it, there’s plenty of margin to be confident in Jourdain having the superior striking.
Chris’ Pick: Jourdain by 1st round knockout.
Rani Yahya vs Ray Rodriguez
- Rani Yahya
- Age: 35
- UFC/WEC Record: 15-7-1
- Key Draws: Fought Enrique Barzola to a draw.
- Key Losses: Lost to Joe Soto.
- Key Wins: Submitted Luke Sanders.
- Tools: Yahya has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has above average grappling (60).
- Ray Rodriguez
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-7
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Brian Kelleher.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jimmy Flick.
- Tools: Rodriguez has average striking (50) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Tricky fight. Normally if a fighter can’t dominate on the ground, they’ll choose to keep the fight on the feet because they don’t want to put on a boring fight. But in Yahya’s case, he’s one of those guys that doesn’t care how he looks. He just wants the win. I have Rodriguez with 55 grappling, so I see Yahya getting some take downs. Controlling most of the fight. Rodriguez will get back up. Yahya will take him down again. It’ll be a slow fight, but Yahya will get the win.
Chris’ Pick: Yahya by decision.
Nasrat Haqparast vs Rafa Garcia
- Nasrat Haqparast
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Losses: Lost to Marcin Held on short notice.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Joaquim Silva. Beat Marc Diakiese.
- Tools: Haqparast has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Rafa Garcia
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 11-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 8-3 fighter. Beat a 10-3 striker. Majority decision win over a well rounded 6-2 fighter.
- Tools: Garcia has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has grappling that’s a little above average (55).
As short notice replacements go, Garcia is one of the better ones. He’s a legit prospect. But there’s levels in this game and Haqparast is better everywhere. I don’t see any path to victory for Garcia.
Chris’ Pick: Haqparast by 1st round knockout.
Cortney Casey vs JJ Aldrich
- Cortney Casey
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 5-6
- Key Losses: Lost to Seo Hee Ham. Lost split decisions to Felice Herrig and Michelle Waterson.
- Key Wins: Submitted Mara Romero Borella and Randa Markos. Beat Angela Hill by split decision.
- Tools: Casey has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
- JJ Aldrich
- Age: 28
- UFC Record: 4-3
- Key Wins: Beat Polyana Viana and Lauren Mueller.
- Tools: Aldrich has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
Casey’s wrestling has definitely regressed. I’m very confident in grading Gillian Robertson’s grappling at a 65. And Robertson dominated Casey on the ground. Took her down every round and stayed on top. I now have Casey’s wrestling at a 55. I’m also confident that Sabina Mazo has 60 striking. I wasn’t entirely sure where Aldrich’s striking was at, but she went toe to toe with Mazo. I thought she beat Mazo. So yeah, Aldrich’s has legit 60 striking. And that’s what’s going to win her the fight.
Chris’ Pick: Aldrich by decision.
Jinh Yu Frey vs Gloria de Paula
- Jinh Yu Frey
- Age: 35
- Pro/Amateur Record: 12-8
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by Seo Hee Ham. Split decision loss to Jodie Esquibel.
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 8-2 fighter, a 9-3 grappler, a 13-3 wrestler, and a well rounded 10-1 fighter.
- Tools: Frey has striking that’s a little above average (55). She also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Gloria de Paula
- Age: 25
- Pro Record: 5-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 3-0 fighter. Beat a well rounded 4-0 fighter.
- Tools: de Paula has striking that’s a little above (55). She also has average grappling (50).
This fight represents one of the better values on the card. de Paula is the shiny new prospect coming off the Contender. Frey is 0-2 to start her UFC career. But the 2 losses were against quality fighters in Kay Hansen and Loma Lookboonmee. I haven’t seen much of de Paula, but I can’t grade her striking as a 60. Therefore with the striking being close to equal, I see Frey scoring a couple take downs here and there and that’ll make the difference.
Chris’ Pick: Frey by decision.
Jason Witt vs Matt Semelsberger
- Jason Witt
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 18-6
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Losses: Submitted by a 24-10 grappler. Knocked out by a 6-3 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 10-3 grappler and a well rounded 7-0 fighter. Submitted a well rounded 11-1 fighter and a well rounded 11-2 fighter.
- Tools: Witt has average striking (50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Matt Semelsberger
- Age: 28
- Pro Record: 7-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Beat a 10-1 striker.
- Tools: Semelsberger has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50).
How good is Witt’s wrestling? That’s the question of the fight. He got knocked out quick in his UFC debut. It happens. Then he took on a well rounded 11-2 fighter and Witt took him down with ease. Dominated on the ground until he got the submission win. I thought Witt’s opponent had 50 wrestling. After watching that, I think it’s more likely he had 45 wrestling as opposed to Witt having 60 wrestling. I could be wrong. If his wrestling tool is 60, he should be able to take Semelsberger down and keep him there. But ultimately, I think Witt’s wrestling is a 55.
Chris’ Pick: Semelsberger by decision.