Stipe Miocic vs Francis Ngannou
- Stipe Miocic
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 14-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Daniel Cormier, Junior dos Santos, Alistair Overeem, and Fabricio Werdum. Beat Francis Ngannou.
- Tools: Miocic has near plus plus striking (75) and plus wrestling (70).
- Francis Ngannou
- Age: 34
- UFC Record: 10-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Curtis Bladyes (twice), Alistair Overeem, Cain Velasquez, and Junior dos Santos.
- Tools: Ngannou has plus plus striking (80) and near plus wrestling (65).
I think Miocic’s last fight, the third fight with Cormier, was the best in his career. For years, Miocic hadn’t really used his wrestling in fights. I had him pegged at having 65 wrestling for awhile. And that seemed to line up after his second fight with Cormier. Cormier slammed him down in the 1st round and held him there the rest of the round. And the narrative going into the trilogy fight was, if Cormier would just focus on and use his wrestling, that’s his best path to win. Well, Cormier tried to wrestle Miocic in that third fight, got Miocic down once, but that was it. Miocic, at 37 years old, was still getting better. I now have his wrestling graded as a 70. Not that that will be a problem for Ngannou. Going into this fight, there’s this narrative that Miocic has a great chance of winning by taking Ngannou down. I don’t buy into that. Ngannou fought Blaydes in their second fight, probably facing the most pressure he ever had going into a fight. He lost to Miocic, lost a lackluster fight to Derrick Lewis in embarassing fashion. Now he takes on a surging Blaydes with 70 wrestling? At the time, it was a crazy choice of opponent. But Blaydes never got close to taking Ngannou down. He was shucked away each time Blaydes tried to clinch. I think Ngannou lost the first fight with Miocic due to lack of respect. He fought sloppy. He expected to knock Miocic out in two minutes just like he’s knocked out everyone else. Ngannou gassed out, and when fighters gas out, it’s over. I expect Ngannou to be more patient. Because Miocic’s real path to victory is circling around, being way faster, and using his durability to pull Ngannou back into those championship rounds. But I see Ngannou’s cardio holding up with him fighting similar to Yoel Romero. Limiting his powerful strikes to short bursts to preserve his gas tank. And over the course of the first 3 rounds, I think at some point, he’s going to catch Miocic.
Chris’ Pick: Ngannou by 2nd round knockout.
Tyron Woodley vs Vicente Luque
- Tyron Woodley
- Age: 38
- UFC Record: 9-4-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler. Knocked down Darren Till and submitted him. Split decision over Kelvin Gastelum. Majority decision over Stephen Thompson. Beat Demian Maia.
- Tools: Woodley has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
- Vicente Luque
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 12-3
- Key Wins: Knocked out Randy Brown, Belal Muhammad, Chad Laprise, and Bryan Barbarena. Submitted and knocked out Niko Price.
- Tools: Luque has plus striking (70) and above average grappling (60).
There’s always exceptions, but a lot of times, when champions lose the belt, they’re never the same. For Woodley, he’s faced elite competition, but the drop off in his skills has been steep. The good news for him is that the regression seems to be more mental than physical. It’s not that he’s gotten slow, he just has a hard time pulling the trigger in the stand up. His wrestling, on the other hand, has probably taken a slight step back. And unlike Gilbert Burns and Colby Covington, who overwhelmed Woodley with volume, Luque is all power. So, Woodley does have a chance, if he can somehow regain his confidence. But something intangible like that is impossible to project going into a fight. I think Luque at anywhere near -250 is a great value.
Chris’ Pick: Luque by 1st round knockout.
Sean O’Malley vs Thomas Almeida
- Sean O’Malley
- Age: 26
- UFC Record: 5-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Eddie Wineland and Jose Quinonez. Beat Andre Soukhamthath.
- Tools: O’Malley has plus striking (70) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Thomas Almeida
- Age: 29
- UFC Record: 5-4
- Key Wins: Knocked out Brad Pickett and Yves Jabouin.
- Tools: Almeida has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
After watching Almeida fight Jonathan Martinez, I had a tough time grading him. Going into the fight, I had Martinez’s striking and power at a 55 and Almeida’s striking and power as a 65. In the fight, the striking was pretty close to equal. So what happened? Is Almeida’s striking not as good as I thought or is Martinez’s striking way better than I thought? Is the truth in the middle? After researching it and watching some of Martinez’s other fights, I’m confident in saying his striking has improved to a 65. The Almeida Martinez fight literally could’ve gone either way in the decision. Martinez recently got knocked out by Davey Grant, but Martinez was getting the better of the stand up and just got caught. All that said, for me, that means Almeida does have 65 striking and power and his fight with O’Malley is closer than I first thought. O’Malley looked like he was out striking Marlon Vera before he got hurt. O’Malley slipped and fell down, Vera got on top of him, Vera landed a few strikes and the ref called the fight. If O’Malley doesn’t get hurt, does he beat Vera? Probably. Vera’s striking and power is at least a 65, if not a 70. And O’Malley was out striking Vera. Meaning I’m fully confident in O’Malley’s striking and power being a plus 70 grade. Almeida is on a skid. He’s lost 3 in a row. Lost 4 out of his last 5. His last win was back in 2016. But he’s still dangerous. Closer than the experts think, but I think O’Malley pulls it out.
Chris’ Pick: O’Malley by decision.
Gillian Robertson vs Miranda Maverick
- Gillian Robertson
- Age: 25
- UFC Record: 6-4
- Key Losses: Submitted by Mayra Bueno Silva.
- Key Wins: Submitted Cortney Casey, Emily Whitmire, and Molly McCann. Knocked out Sarah Frota. Beat Poliana Botelho.
- Tools: Robertson has striking that’s a little above average paired with fringe average power (55-45). She also has near plus grappling (65).
- Miranda Maverick
- Age: 23
- Pro/Amateur Record: 16-2
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Losses: Lost to DeAnna Bennett.
- Key Wins: Submitted DeAnna Bennett and Shanna Young. Knocked out Liana Jojua. Beat a 6-1 grappler.
- Tools: Maverick has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). She also has above average wrestling (60) and above average grappling (60).
Robertson might have a 9-5 pro record, but every loss she has had been to fighters that are currently in the UFC. Lost to Hannah Goldy and Cynthia Calvillo outside the UFC. Lost to Barb Honchak on The Ultimate Fighter. Granted these losses happened when Robertson was 21 years old or younger. She also beat Cheyanne Buys and submitted Hannah Cifers before making it to the UFC too. My point is she’s always taken on tough opponents. And Maverick is another one. Now, my knee jerk reaction when first seeing this fight booked was, okay, lesser opponent for Robertson. A step back in competition from Santos. Robertson has 70 grappling and should win. So I was shocked to see some books open with Maverick at -200. And still as of now, Maverick hovers at -175. I rewatched the Robertson vs Santos fight and reality says Robertson doesn’t have 70 grappling. Because Santos dominated the fight with her wrestling. After watching that, Santos probably has 70 wrestling, might even have 75 wrestling. But I’ve had to downgrade Robertson’s grappling to a 65. And even though Maverick didn’t show her ground game in her UFC debut vs Jojua, I’ve seen it in Invicta. She has wrestling and grappling. Both 60s. She’s very well rounded. And that well roundedness is why she’s the favorite and why I’m picking her to win this fight. Maverick really reminds me of Maycee Barber and I think this fight will be similar to Robertson vs Barber.
Chris’ Pick: Maverick by decision.
Jamie Mullarkey vs Khama Worthy
- Jamie Mullarkey
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 12-4
- UFC Record: 0-2
- Key Losses: Knocked out by a 5-6 striker.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 4-1 wrestler.
- Tools: Mullarkey has above average striking (60). He also has above average wrestling (60) and fringe average grappling (45).
- Khama Worthy
- Age: 33
- Pro Record: 16-6
- UFC Record: 2-0
- Key Losses: Got knocked out by Kyle Nelson, Billy Quarantillo, and Matt Bessette.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Devonte Smith. Submitted Luis Pena and a 6-1 wrestler. Beat a 6-2 grappler.
- Tools: Worthy has above average striking (60) and grappling that’s a little above average (55).
Really close fight. If you watch Mullarkey’s fight with Brad Riddell, you’ll be able to see how I think this one plays out. Although I think Riddell’s striking is a little better than Worthy’s. In that fight, Riddell got the better of the striking, but Mullarkey did have his moments taking Riddell down a couple times, pushing him against the fence. It’s possible Mullarkey’s wrestling is a 65, but I’m not quite there yet. Mullarkey’s last fight, he lost to Fares Ziam. That’s a hard one for me to evaluate. Ziam looks to be pretty good, but he lost to Don Madge. And good is Madge? Haven’t seen too much of him. But I know how good Riddell is.
Chris’ Pick: Mullarkey by decision.
Alonzo Menifield vs Fabio Cherant
- Alonzo Menifield
- Age: 33
- UFC Record: 4-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out Paul Craig, a 9-1 grappler, and a well rounded 8-1 fighter.
- Tools: Menifield has near plus striking (65) and above average wrestling (60).
- Fabio Cherant
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 7-1
- Tools: Cherant has average striking paired with below average power (50-40). He also has average grappling (50).
Cherant is one of these guys that’s very muscular. Not able to push the pace. He went 5 rounds in his last fight in FA against a well rounded 18-8 fighter, but he fought like Yoel Romero. Was very patient. Looked for the big shots. Barely won the fight. And the style works for Romero because of the power he poses, but Cherant has 0 career knockouts. And he has no wins over quality opponents. The decent competition he’s gone against was Aleksa Camur on The Contender and Cherant got knocked out. Menifield was about to have a stiff test on his hands going against William Knight. And wow, there’s just a giant difference between going against the likes of Ovince St Preux and Devin Clark, to Cherant. I don’t see Cherant threatening with his ground game. Menfieild will have an easy time getting back on track.
Chris’ Pick: Menifield by 1st round knockout.
Jared Gooden vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov
- Jared Gooden
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 17-5
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Wins: Beat a well rounded 9-0 fighter.
- Tools: Gooden has average striking (50). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
- Abubakar Nurmagomedov
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 15-3
- UFC Record: 0-1
- Key Draws: Fought Bojan Velickovic to a draw.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 7-1 striker. Beat a well rounded 10-3 fighter.
- Tools: Nurmagomedov has average striking (50) and above average wrestling (60).
I’ve watched Gooden fight a couple times and I still haven’t been overly impressed. He’s well rounded, but to me, he’s got 50 tools across the board. He’s supposed to have wrestling, but he didn’t try to use it when he made his UFC debut against Alan Jouban. It’ll certainly get tested in this fight. Abubakar’s wrestling was better than I thought in how he took David Zawada down and controlled him for most of the 1st round. He got caught in an armbar, but that happens. I’m higher on him than I was right before he debuted. To me, I think Abubakar’s wrestling is the best tool in the fight. It’s what he’s going to use to win here.
Chris’ Pick: Abubakar by decision.
Michal Oleksiejczuk vs Modestas Bukauskas
- Michal Oleksiejczuk
- Age: 26
- Pro Record: 14-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Losses: Submitted by Ovince St. Preux.
- Key Wins: Knocked out Gian Villante, Gadzhimurad Antigulov, and a 5-0 striker. Beat a well rounded 4-1 fighter.
- Tools: Oleksiejczuk has near plus striking (65) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Modestas Bukauskas
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 11-3
- UFC Record: 1-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out Andreas Michaildis, a well rounded 5-0 fighter and an 8-1 striker.
- Tools: Bukauskas has above average striking (60) and above average wrestling (60).
Bukauskas does have some wrestling. He fought Jimmy Crute. And Crute tried to take him down and didn’t have much success. Crute then went on to knock Bukauskas out, but I was still impressed that Bukauskas has a more well rounded skill set than I thought. Oleksiejczuk is a pretty unique fighter. He’s under sized for the weight class, makes up for it by pushing the pace in fights. And is deceptively strong despite the smaller size. He, also, fought Crute. Oleksiejczuk got up repeatedly when taken down, but was never able to break the grip. Crute submitted him in the 1st round. So the wrestling is pretty close to equal with these guys with Bukauskas having a slight edge. But Oleksiejczuk will win the fight because of the pace and pressure he’ll put on Bukauskas in the stand up.
Chris’ Pick: Oleksiejczuk by 2nd round knockout.
Omar Morales vs Shane Young
- Omar Morales
- Age: 35
- Pro Record: 10-1
- UFC Record: 3-1
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 12-2 fighter. Beat Gabriel Benitez.
- Tools: Morales has above average striking paired with average power (60-50). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55) and average grappling (50).
- Shane Young
- Age: 27
- Pro Record: 13-4
- UFC Record: 2-2
- Key Wins: Knocked out a well rounded 6-1 fighter and a well rounded 5-2 fighter. Beat a well rounded 16-5 fighter. Split decision over a 20-6 wrestler.
- Tools: Young has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has average wrestling (50) and average grappling (50).
Shane Young is out. Birchak is in. Oh wait, Young has been cleared to fight, so he’s back in again. Only in the fight game. Young is obviously a tougher opponent. Is 2-2 in the UFC, one loss to champion Alexander Volkanovski. Morales should win this fight. His striking is better. His calf kicks make him dangerous. But Young does have more power and Morales will have to be careful to not get caught.
Chris’ Pick: Morales by decision.
Marc-Andre Barriault vs Abu Azaitar
- Marc-Andre Barriault
- Age: 31
- Pro Record: 11-4
- UFC Record: 0-3
- Key Losses: Lost to Jun Yong Park.
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 9-3 striker and a 7-1 striker.
- Tools: Barriault has striking that’s a little above average (55). He also has wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
- Abu Azaitar
- Age: 34
- Pro Record: 14-2-1
- UFC Record: 1-0
- Key Wins: Knocked out a 5-0 grappler and a 12-2 wrestler.
- Tools: Azaitar has above average striking (60) and wrestling that’s a little above average (55).
This is such a hard fight to pick. So many unknowns. Barriault is the more well known commodity who had a lot of hype coming in. Has disappointed so far going 0-3 to start his UFC career. Then he looked like he finally broke out vs Oskar Piechota. But then the fight was ruled a no contest. Azaitar hasn’t fought in almost 3 years. He’s older. But looked pretty good and well rounded in his UFC debut with Vitor Miranda. Based on my grades I give Azaitar a slight striking edge.
Chris’ Pick: Azaitar by decision.